bluewave

Ozone Park, Howard Beach, and Brownsville made it to 95° a few minutes ago. https://www2.nysmesonet.org/networks/nyc 95°F

The developing drought area in Central New Jersey has been at or above 90° since the 12th. Data for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2022-07-18 93 2022-07-17 89 2022-07-16 91 2022-07-15 90 2022-07-14 92 2022-07-13 93 2022-07-12 93

At least for the first day of the heatwave on Monday, the high temperature at Newark was in line with the other local NJ local stations. Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2022-07-18 93 Data for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2022-07-18 94 Data for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2022-07-18 93 Data for TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2022-07-18 93

Newark is currently at the 3rd driest July 1 to July 19 on record.This is the first time Newark was so dry at 0.38 while NYC had 3.29. All the previous under .50 periods since 1931 at Newark were also dry in NYC. So another 1st for our more extreme post 2010 climate. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Jul 1 to Jul 19 NYC Jul 1 to 19 1 1939-07-19 0.20 0.14 2 1932-07-19 0.25 0.43 3 2022-07-19 0.38 3.29 4 1982-07-19 0.39 0.19 5 1980-07-19 0.40 1.20 6 1966-07-19 0.45 0.61

Southhold finished with 3.33” and picked up 1.00” in 10 min. That may be the heaviest 10 minute total there since the station was set up a few years ago.

This is going be our 8th top 10 warmest July since 2010 at our major climate stations. The previous years were 2020, 2019, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2011, and 2010. The last top 10 coolest July in our area was in 2009.

Flash flooding on Eastern LI with 3.33” at Southold. http://www.nysmesonet.org/mesonow#network=nysm&stid=sout

2.68” now with 1.00” in the last 10 minutes.

1.54” at Southhold since 12pm with 1.00” in 20 min. https://www2.nysmesonet.org/weather/meteogram#network=nysm&stid=sout

Miami dewpoints into the upper 70s here on Long Island. Wantagh N/A 81 77 MacArthur/ISP CLOUDY 79 78

Dewpoints above 80° in Canada set all-time record in Winnipeg.

The Euro has our warmest week in a while. Temperatures exceed 95° from Tuesday into the weekend. The usual warm spots could also reach 100° on the days with the highest temperatures.

Tropical airmass on Monday with PWATS over 2.00” and dewpoints in the mid 70s to fuel the convection.

DFW is almost tied on the list with 2011 for the most 100° days by July 17th. Time Series Summary for Dallas-Fort Worth Area, TX (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100 Jan 1 to Jul 17 Missing Count 1 1980-07-17 30 0 2 1998-07-17 25 0 3 2011-07-17 23 0 4 2022-07-17 22 0 5 1978-07-17 18 0 - 1953-07-17 18 0 Time Series Summary for Dallas-Fort Worth Area, TX (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100 Missing Count 1 2011 71 0 2 1980 69 0 3 1998 56 0 4 1954 52 0 5 1956 48 0

There was also another recent paper published on the seasonality of Arctic warming.

DMI has a nice discussion about the summer Arctic temperatures near the North Pole since 2002. https://skepticalscience.com/DMI-data-on-Arctic-temperatures-Intermediate.html it seems that a cooling temperature trend in the Arctic summer is present, throughout the past approximately 10 years. Where 'summer' is defined as the period where the +80N mean temperature is above 273K. However, I very much doubt that a simple conclusion can be drawn from that, as there are complicating aspects to that analysis, e.g.: 1) The surface in the +80N area is more or less fully snow and ice covered all year, so the temperature is strongly controlled by the melting temperature of the surface. I.e. the +80N temperature is bound to be very close to the melt point of the surface snow and ice (273K) and the variability is therefore very small, less than 0.5K. I am sure you will find a much clearer warming trend in the same analysis applied to the winter period. The winter period is more crucial for the state of the Arctic sea ice, as this is the period where the ice is produced and the colder the winter the thicker and more robust the sea ice will become. 2) The +80N temperature data after 2002 are based on the operational global deterministic models at ECMWF, at any given time. Before 2002 the ERA 40 reanalysis is used. I.e. the +80N temperatures are based on 4 different models, the model used for the ERA 40 data set and the operational models T511, T799 and T1279. The point is that there can be a temperature bias in one or more of the models, that can cause the lower temperature level since approximately 2002. http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n_anomaly.uk.php

That one hour deluge got them closer to normal July rainfall since the XMACIS records began there in 2012. Monthly Total Precipitation for UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jul Season Mean 4.22 4.22 2022 3.15 3.15 2021 6.48 6.48 2020 6.32 6.32 2019 2.97 2.97 2018 4.18 4.18 2017 3.22 3.22 2016 3.16 3.16 2015 1.34 1.34 2014 2.78 2.78 2013 4.26 4.26 2012 8.53 8.53

East Setauket was Long Island rainfall leader yesterday at 2.27”. Daily Precipitation Report Station Number: NY-SF-76 Station Name: Setauket-East Setauket 0.3 SSE Observation Date 7/17/2022 9:22 AM Submitted 7/17/2022 9:24 AM Gauge Catch 2.27 in. Notes --

The EPS temperature departure forecast for the rest of the month in °C would translate into at least +3 ° to 5° F across the area. So this means that several of our stations will finish with another top 10 warmest July. Since July is one of our fastest warming months, the bar for top 10 has been lowered when looking at the new warmer 1991-2020 climate normals. Below are the necessary departures for our local stations to reach top 10 warmest July average temperatures. The numbers to the right are the current departures ahead of the warm up. EWR…+2.2…..+3.4 NYC...+2.1…….+1.1 LGA….+1.4….+0.6 JFK…..+1.9…..+1.5 HPN….+2.0…..+1.5 ISP……+0.9…..+0.2 BDR….+1.3……+0.2

Radar estimates of 2.00 inch rainfall amounts where the best training set up today.

Short dry patterns have been the rule with our much warmer SSTs and higher dewpoints. The SSTs were much cooler for the last significant drought in 1999-2002. The 500 year drought in the 1960s had very cold SSTs.

An average July at LGA is 79.2 with the new much warmer 1991-2020 climate normals. That new normal is the 17th highest temperature recorded for July. So it puts 2022 currently at 14th warmest with less than a +1 departure so far. LGA will only need a +1.4 departure by the end of the month to make it into the top 10 warmest. So while departures are useful for recent temperature comparisons, they don’t really work well for comparisons to our climate before 2010. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/us-climate-normals/#dataset=normals-monthly&timeframe=30&location=NY&station=USW00014732 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 82.9 +3.7 2 2010 82.8 0 3 1999 81.9 0 4 2019 81.5 0 5 2013 81.2 0 6 2016 81.1 0 7 1955 80.9 0 8 1966 80.8 0 9 2006 80.7 0 10 1994 80.6 +1.4 11 2012 80.4 0 - 2011 80.4 0 - 1952 80.4 0 12 2008 80.0 0 - 1993 80.0 0 13 2018 79.8 0 - 1995 79.8 0 14 2022 79.6 15 2002 79.5 0 16 1949 79.4 0 17 2015 79.2 Normal

The higher dewpoints and mid 70s SSTs are doing their job. Some spots have picked up over 1.00” this morning. We’ll probably see more widespread convection in the coming days.

Yeah, the usual warm spots around the region on the Euro make a run on 100°. Even the Long Island North Shore goes over 95°. But the highest dewpoints should be closest to the coast.

Next week looks like and unusual similarity between our pattern and the one in the UK. Both heatwaves are getting an assist from a closed low to the west pumping in the heat from a drought region. While the one in the UK can deliver all-time heat, parts of our area may approach 100°. These type of concurrent heat waves are becoming more common. 850 mb temperatures in excess of +20C in both regions