bluewave

The 72° at Newark so far is just 1° off the record high. Newark/Liberty MOSUNNY 72 48 42 S15 11/18 73 in 1963 72 in 1953 70 in 1931

Models will always struggle beyond the day 6-10 ensemble means. But the extreme nature of the Pacific Jet this year really stands out. One record storm after another along the West Coast. The storms have been so intense, that they dropped the -PDO to near record lows for this time of year.

You can see what the models are trying to do in the 11-14 day range by looking at the velocity potential charts. The La Niña standing wave is MJO 4-5. The forcing near Africa and South America closer to phase 1. So the RMM charts won’t be able to resolve all the forcing in multiple locations. This combination of phases in early December supports a +EPO and south based -AO -NAO extending to near the Canadian Maritimes. There is also a battle out West between a neutral to -PNA at times.

The near record warm ocean is more impressive. Long Island pushing 60° with a southerly wind. The SSTs are still near 60° in late November. Shirley CLEAR 59 51 75 S9

November continuing the post 2010 pattern of having the lowest monthly departure of fall. Station…..Nov…..Oct…..Sep EWR….+1.1….+6.9….+3.3 NYC….-0.5….+4.1…..+1.1 JFK…+0.8…..+5.8….+2.3 LGA…+1.4…..+5.1….+1.9 HPN…-0.5….+5.6….+1.3 ISP……-0.1….+5.5…..+2.7 BDR….+0.1….+4.7….+2.2

I know we had a 2-3” snow event around NYC at the end of November 1995. But the highest impact storm that month was the November 11th powerful cutter. I had 70-75 mph SSW gusts with a severe squall line that came through near midnight. Quite a few power outages around the area after that severe event.

It’s remarkable how that November 1995 pattern locked in right through April. That was an example of a stuck weather pattern from before the 2010s era. It will be interesting to see how low we can extend that 6-10 day +EPO, SW ridge, and -NAO.

The day 6-10 EPS 500 mb pattern is similar to November 1995. While it’s showing a more +EPO than 1995, the SW ridge near California and the -NAO block resembles 1995. It will be interesting to see how long we can hold that kind of a pattern.

Great illustration of how an extreme La Niña Pacific Jet can trigger a wave breaking event that pumps the -NAO -AO block.

All the guidance is correcting stronger with the -NAO -AO blocking for late November. This is what we want to see during La Ninas in November for winter blocking intervals and better snowfall chances.The individual storm details will probably have to wait until we get within the 120 hr range. New run Old run

We will need a strong enough storm Thanksgiving week for our first -10 departure of fall behind the cold front. Our last multi station average below -10 was the July 4th weekend. The only recent fall without one averaged for our climate division was the 2016 La Niña. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=32&network=NYCLIMATE&station=NYC004&year=2021&var=high&gddbase=50&gddceil=86&how=diff&cmap=jet&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Yeah, the warmest SSTs for the period of record during this time of year. https://mco.umaine.edu/gom_sst/

And these unusually potent late fall severe weather patterns in recent years. https://weather.com/storms/tornado/news/2018-10-04-pennsylvania-record-october-tornado-outbreak Tuesday's swarm of tornadoes in parts of the Northeast set an October record in Pennsylvania. It was the state's most tornadic day in over 20 years. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/10/24/rare-late-october-tornado-outbreak-hit-massachusetts-rhode-island-tuesday/ October 24, 2018 Cape Cod is a fun summertime vacation destination, and the weather is usually turning increasingly wintry this time of year. Tuesday, the Cape looked more like Oklahoma than New England as several tornadoes tore through Massachusetts and Rhode Island. At least three tornadoes seem likely to have touched down. It’s a region that doesn’t see many twisters any time of year, and this is as late as they come in Southern New England.

Record number of tornado warnings issued from the NWS at OKX for October and November since 2018. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=171&opt=wfo&station=OKX&state=NY&_ugc_state=NY&ugc=NYC059&phenomena=TO&significance=W&cmap=Greens&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

The December pattern will probably begin to set up during the last week of November. We need a strong cutter or hugger to pump the -NAO into December like last year. All our La Ninas that have near to above normal snows have a front loaded part when we put down snow at some point in December. This was true during our last La Niña Decembers in 2016 and 2017.

Partial collapse of the restaurant according to a report on twitter.

Small planes flipped at Brookhaven airport.

Damage at Chipotle in Suffolk.

This was the first time that I saw asperatus clouds ahead of severe storms on Long Island.

Damage reports in Lynbrook.

Newark gusting to 52 mph with the sting jet like feature behind the line. Newark Liberty PTSUNNY 51 43 74 W38G52

These near record midlevel lapse rates have given us unusually widespread coverage of hail across the area.

Enough hail to whiten the ground in NJ.

These near record midlevel lapse rates are as steep as we see on the Plains with their spring and summer severe outbreaks.

Hopefully, the JMA is correct about us getting -NAO -AO intervals this winter.