Stebo

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE ERN U.S. FROM THE NORTHEAST SWWD INTO ERN TX/ERN OK... ...SYNOPSIS... AS ONE FEATURE ALOFT EJECTS NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA...A SECOND WILL DIG QUICKLY SEWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS -- BOTH WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH WHICH WILL KEEP BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE THE INITIAL SURFACE LOW LIFTS NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND WEAKENS...LEAVING BEHIND A TRAILING FROM THE OH VALLEY SWWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO TX...A SECOND FRONTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP -- AND QUICKLY DEEPEN -- AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS TX AND INTO AR LATE. THIS DEVELOPING LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A POTENTIALLY SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND MID MS VALLEY REGION. ...ARKLATEX REGION INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AREA... COMPLEX -- BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT -- SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE UNFOLDING ACROSS THIS REGION...AS PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION INVOF A SURFACE WARM FRONT RESULTS IN A SLOW INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY-APPROACHING UPPER FEATURE DIGGING SEWD FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE SRN PLAINS. WHILE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS APPARENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA -- PARTICULARLY INVOF THE WARM FRONT -- THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THREAT SHOULD RAMP UP RAPIDLY FROM W TO E BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN OK/E TX...AND THEN INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX INTO NRN LA/AR AND EVENTUALLY THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND AS BACKING/INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW EVOLVES IN RESPONSE...SHEAR WILL BECOME HIGHLY-FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...IT APPEARS THAT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION -- AND THUS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT FOCUSED ON AR AND VICINITY. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL...UPGRADE TO HIGHER CATEGORY RISK APPEARS LIKELY IN LATER FORECASTS. ...SRN APPALACHIANS WWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION... PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT -- AND THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL WEAK/EMBEDDED FEATURES -- ATOP A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SERN U.S. -- FROM VA AND THE CAROLINAS WWD INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST. WITH MODEST BUT SUFFICIENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS A BROAD AREA...MULTICELL/LOCAL SUPERCELL ORGANIZATION CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STORMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THIS REGION. DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR ATTM...BUT WILL INCLUDE A LARGE PORTION OF THIS REGION IN SLIGHT RISK FORECAST -- MAINLY FOR DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL POTENTIAL...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION... AS A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFT QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE/REDEVELOP THROUGH THE PERIOD. NARROWING DOWN EXACT AREAS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAIN DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME WITH WIDESPREAD AREA OF AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND A BROAD AREA OF STRONG FLOW ALOFT/FAVORABLE SHEAR. DETAILS SHOULD BECOME CLEARER IN LATER FORECASTS...BUT ATTM...WILL INCLUDE A LARGE PORTION OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AREA...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE EPISODES OF STRONG/OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO EXIST -- INCLUDING THREATS FOR HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

Some 03 SREF images Sunday Monday Nothing particularly high yet but a persistent area over E OK/AR/MO region for right now.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0350 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2011 VALID 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE ERN U.S. DAYS 4-6 /TUE. 4-26 THROUGH THU. 4-28/...AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. DAY 4 ACROSS THE MS VALLEY DAY 5...AND THEN ON EWD THROUGH DAYS 6/7. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THIS FEATURE BEGIN TO EMERGE DAY 5...BUT BECOME INCREASINGLY PRONOUNCED THROUGH DAYS 6 AND 7 AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE E COAST STATES/ERN ATLANTIC. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT DAY 4 IS PROGGED FROM E TX NEWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGS ESEWD INTO THIS REGION...WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH. UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH THE ENERGETIC SHORT-WAVE FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED/STRONG FLOW FIELD SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL -- INCLUDING RISKS FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE THREAT SHOULD SHIFT E OF THE MS VALLEY INTO THE MID SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DAY 5...AS THE SHORT-WAVE FEATURE TAKES ON A NEUTRAL TO EVEN NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES THIS REGION. AGAIN -- AMPLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FLOW FIELD SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. AS MODELS BEGIN DIVERGING SOMEWHAT WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND SMALLER-SCALE DETAILS...DEGREE OF THREAT SHIFTING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS LATE DAY 5 AND INTO DAY 6 BECOMES LESS CERTAIN. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WILL REFRAIN FROM HIGHLIGHTING A THREAT AREA THIS FORECAST. WITH THE FRONT LIKELY OFFSHORE BY THE START OF DAY 7... SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE U.S. APPEARS LESS WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT AND MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2011 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS EWD/NEWD INTO THE MID OH AND TN VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESS OF THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOW OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD...AS ONE EMBEDDED SHORTER-WAVELENGTH TROUGH EJECTS NEWD ACROSS THE MO VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A SECOND DIGS ESEWD OUT OF THE ERN PACIFIC AND INTO THE SRN ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...FRONTAL ZONE WHICH HAS PERSISTED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WSWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME NWD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A FRONTAL WAVE SHIFTS NEWD OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. ...ERN OK/NERN TX ENEWD ACROSS THE LOWER AND MID MS/TN/LOWER AND MID OH VALLEY REGION... RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD INCREASE/EXPAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS DIURNALLY HEATS/DESTABILIZES. WITH MODERATELY STRONG/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT FORECAST ATOP THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR...EXPECT ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS TO AGAIN BECOME MOST INTENSE THROUGH AFTERNOON AND EVENING -- SIMILAR TO PRIOR DAYS. ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. ATTM...THE FORECAST AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ONGOING THROUGH THE END OF DAY 2 AND INTO DAY 3 RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO PRECISE LOCATION AND DEGREE OF MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTIVE/SEVERE THREATS. HOWEVER...THREAT APPEARS SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION TO WARRANT CONTINUATION OF PROBABILITIES REFLECTIVE OF A FAIRLY ACTIVE SEVERE THREAT. Sounds like they wanted to go Mod but too many question marks at this junction to go mod.

I hope we get stuff on Monday, because Tuesday Evening I work and as much fun as a High Octane shift is, it would be nice to chase in MI too.

A little faster but at this point for the low's to only be apart by half a state, and both be in the same general location is pretty good.

Probably the GFS, its the hot hand right now. Although the Euro 12z has came in line with the GFS fairly nicely, so if that were to continue you would have inter/intramodel consistency from 2 of the best models.

I could see the area he mentioned being very close to being correct as of right now.

Wait this cant be a true, a chase potential on my day off ? Talk about a high octane potential too. Like Baro said its been a while since we have seen a pattern like this. Compounded by what has already happened so far this month.

When do we tap out and say uncle. Honestly I can't remember a pattern this hyperactive since maybe May of 03.

No I agree, its just there might be more than before now.

Yeah it's understandable but it seems like unless something were to change this would be what college grads will end up doing.

This is NWS, it just means a lot more people will be entering the private sector jobs.

Yeah I think its a given if you are a Met you do poorly in calc. I got a C in calc 1, a C- in calc 2 and Calc 3.