Stebo

Very fast motion too not to mention the individual vortices

Impressive looking tornado on the ground to the North of Birmingham. Multiple Vortex, with powerflashes.

No I would agree, I was just stating if there was anything that would cause them not to go High, it would be that. I personally would go high for S. KY south into MS/AL.

It's these differences that will probably cause them to not pull the trigger on a high until the 2nd outlook at 1300Z if they dont at 0600Z

indeed

Yeah I would have to agree with all of this, I think saying tomorrow will underperform is a bit premature. If we have issues with the setup by say noon tomorrow then we can talk about the potential underperforming.

Yeah I agree, I think we need to keep this thread to serious discussion as a good amount of the country is going to be affected tomorrow.

Just like a blizzard or a major hurricane...

and anything in the gulf will be Katrina.

I'm not writing off anything, I just think that you don't realize just how epic 30 F4 and 6 F5 tornadoes are.

Yeah Tennessee is going to have a long day today and tomorrow, and its already been a busy time in the past 36 hours.

There is certainly a potential of a High, of all 3 days Wednesday would be the one that has the highest potential get the High Risk designation.

Wow not often do you see such amazing shear coinciding with large instability like this.

Yeah Wednesday is starting to get that scary potential to it. Especially with the models uniformly trending left each run.

I'd certainly argue there is a growing potential further North on Wednesday per the latest model runs, SREF showing higher numbers much further North than previous runs too.

I'm guessing no.

Day 3 Mod too DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...MIDDLE AND EASTERN TENNESSEE...NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA...AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE ERN U.S. FROM THE LOWER AND MID MS/OH VALLEYS EWD... ...SYNOPSIS... A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE U.S. THIS PERIOD...WITH A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX SHIFTING EWD INTO THE MID SOUTH REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT S OF THE MAIN GREAT LAKES REGION LOW. THIS SYNOPTIC-SCALE SETUP FAVORS SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL E OF THE MS VALLEY. ...PA/NW SSWWD TO THE GULF COAST... YET ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIALLY VERY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED DAY 3 /WED. AND EARLY THU. APR. 27 AND 28/ -- WITH ELEVATED THREAT FOR A TORNADO OUTBREAK EVIDENT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...AS THE POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-/UPPER-LEVEL SPEED MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH. WHILE AN INITIAL SURFACE LOW SHOULD SHIFT NNEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST...SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE KY/TN VICINITY...WITH LOCALLY-BACKED SURFACE FLOW VEERING/INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY WITH HEIGHT RESULTING IN SHEAR PROFILES VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. THE MOST FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...STRONG SHEAR...FOCUSED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...AND ANTICIPATED LACK OF APPRECIABLE PRIOR CONVECTION INDICATES A RELATIVELY HIGH-CONFIDENCE AREA OF CONCENTRATED SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE CENTERED OVER THE MID SOUTH/TN VALLEY REGION. THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE MODERATE RISK FORECAST ATTM -- INDICATIVE OF OUTBREAK POTENTIAL. ALONG WITH FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE POTENTIAL EXTENDING FARTHER NNEWD INTO PA/NY -- INCLUDING THREATS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY ALSO EXTEND E OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES. ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR AFTERNOON SEVERE CONVECTION...SEVERE CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SURFACE FRONT CRESTS THE APPALACHIANS. ..GOSS.. 04/25/2011

Yeah, if it were to develop you'd have a severe backing of the winds at the surface, and the potential of significant tornado action would skyrocket.

Oh you are talking about that NAM meso low that formed? Yeah that definitely had a convectively induced look to it, although it is interesting that the other models all show it. Might be something to monitor the potential of as we move through next few days.

Amazing shear, but not a terribly high amount of instability in the sounding.

Yeah what I would pay to have Tuesday off so I could leave for Memphis after work today for 3 days.

Day 2 Moderate risk DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS...WESTERN TENNESSEE...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE EASTERN U.S. FROM THE NORTHEAST/E COAST STATES TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... VERY LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...AS ONE SHORTER-WAVELENGTH FEATURE SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND A SECOND DIGS SEWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES. A SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY SWWD INTO N TX...AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE CONVECTION -- INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOCAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK FOCUSED FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. ...ARKLATEX REGION ENEWD INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY... COMPLEX -- BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/DANGEROUS -- SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS UNFOLDING FOR THIS AREA FOR DAY 2 /TUE. AND EARLY WED./. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...SHIFTING EWD/ENEWD INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS ALONG WITH ONGOING SEVERE POTENTIAL. GREATER SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS REGION HOWEVER WILL EVOLVE LATER IN THE DAY...AS AN INITIAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DEPARTING NEWD IS FOLLOWED BY A SECOND/DIGGING FEATURE SHIFTING QUICKLY SEWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...BACKING/INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD IS FORECAST...WITH A 70-PLUS KT LOW-LEVEL JET TO SHIFT EWD FROM NE TX ACROSS AR/LA DURING THE EVENING...BENEATH MID-LEVEL WLYS INCREASING TO 70 TO 80 KT. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE WARM FRONT...SHIFTING EWD ACROSS N TX AND AR TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY LATE. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NE TX AND QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES EXPECTED. A SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO EVOLVE -- SPREADING ACROSS NRN LA/AR AND THEN INTO WRN TN/NWRN MS LATE. ALONG WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL...DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD -- POSSIBLY EXTENDING AS FAR E AS MIDDLE TN/NRN AR/NWRN GA BY 27/12Z. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/OH AND TN VALLEYS... THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR AS STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THIS AREA FOCUSING LARGE-SCALE UVV ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO TX. WHILE AFTERNOON HEATING MAY BE HINDERED BY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER...LOCAL AREAS OF GREATER DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY -- AS FAR NE AS PA AND NY NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. WITH A STRONG SWLY FLOW FIELD ALOFT ACROSS THIS ENTIRE AREA /LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING FROM 50 TO 65 KT IN THE 850 TO 500 MB LAYER/...SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS...ALONG WITH LINEAR/BOWING SEGMENTS. ALONG WITH SOME THREAT FOR HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE THREAT SHOULD SPREAD EWD WITH TIME AS THE FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCES...WITH SOME THREAT LIKELY LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO NY/PA/WV. ...CAROLINAS/VA... WEAK SHORT-WAVE FEATURES SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS THIS REGION -- EMBEDDED WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD AHEAD ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THE LARGE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH -- WILL SUPPORT A BROAD ZONE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS AREA. WITH HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS OCCURING THROUGH THE DAY...INSTABILITY WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT -- IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODERATE/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT -- TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING THREATS FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. WITHOUT A CLEAR LOW-LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM...WITH MAINTAIN ONLY 15%/SLIGHT RISK FORECAST ATTM -- GIVEN THE BROAD/UNFOCUSED THREAT AREA.

Yeah Beau right now the GFS is on its own with the further SE track, all the rest are to the West of it.

Also further Northwest with the low on Wednesday Night compared to the GFS, which has agreement with the GGEM/UKMET/NAM, GFS is the furthest SE with this current forecast

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0350 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2011 VALID 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE/SEVERE WEATHER EVENT -- ONGOING FROM THE DAY 3 /TUE. 4-26/ PERIOD -- IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND GULF COAST STATES DAY 4 /WED. 4-27/...AS MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS BOTH FORECAST EWD PROGRESSION OF THE LARGE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH. AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FEATURING MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT CONTINUATION/REDEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER -- INCLUDING HAIL/WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES -- SUPPORTS CONTINUATION OF A LARGE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA FOR DAY 4. MODEL TIMING WITH RESPECT TO THE SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIFFER MORE SUBSTANTIALLY DAY 5 /THU. 4-28/...THUS CASTING SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION AND DEGREE OF THREAT E OF THE APPALACHIANS DAY 5. THEREFORE...WHILE POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES SOMEWHERE BETWEEN LATE IN THE DAY 4 PERIOD AND THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF DAY 5...WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT A SPECIFIC THREAT AREA THIS FORECAST. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO HAVE SWEPT OFFSHORE BY THE START OF DAY 6 /FRI. 4-29/...FOCUS SHIFTS WWD AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SHIFTS ACROSS/OUT OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS ARE IN MORE SUBSTANTIAL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE...AND THUS WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT ANY LONGER-RANGE THREAT AREAS THIS FORECAST. Some 03z SREF maps too Monday Tuesday First look at Wednesday