rochesterdave

just for kicks but it’d take something like this! JMA. Lol

IDK. I’ve seen worse set ups. This could easily become a heavy wet snow event. Lots of time and the trend has been friendly. Honestly, for most of us, this is the white Christmas long shot. Nothing but wet snowshowers after. 

The EURO is pretty dang impressive for BUF. A tad bit colder and further east and we’d all get in on this. 

I’m not sold but increasingly intrigued. 

It’s the first real sign of something more intriguing than an utter washout. GFS Para splits the energy in two and leaves a Low back that ultimately climbs up the eastern apps and taps cooler air, resulting in some snow. It will have to improve but at least I’ve stepped away from the very edge of the bridge. 

Para gfs is ummm....interesting 

49 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

It would take a lot for this upcoming storm to be mostly frozen but a good start would be a trend towards the ukmet, which goes through E/C NY..

 

UKie has been in the eastern camp. Euro was kinda east too. But I think this one is cooked. Just so little cold available. 

1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

Well, it looks like even most of the Tug will lose our snow pack by the end of this week with that UGLY system coming in. Could end up being a Green Christmas here.

That would be pretty rare and very depressing. I’ve been concerned all along about this El Niño winter of ours. I recall one from the early 80’s that crushed my soul. 

Hopefully, the smart guys from here are right and it’ll come roaring back for Jan-Feb. This pacific flow is for the birds. 

Euro long range shows about 8” in Rochester over the next 45 days. Ugh

Not anymore. I only saw the one this year. It was definitely a fireball. I wasn’t even looking but it grabbed my attention. Streaked the entire sky. 

Love those. I also like the quick zippers. Sometimes I wonder if I’m the only human who saw it. It travelled millions of miles and burned up before my eyes only. Trippy. Haha

Saw a large Meteor at 7:30. Had a tail. 

Crazy how things change. 

elevation event? Don’t trust this pattern...

Heavy little burst here. Nice little shot.

It will only add up to an inch or two but keeping things fresh!

Christmas continues to be the time frame to watch. 

This upcoming period might not be quite as warm as originally thought. 

icon with an interesting piece

10 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Euro is on the eastern side of guidance, therefore more wintry..

At least that would be interesting.

8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Seems plausable..

Looks like spring. If that H were just a tad NW.  OK, a big tad. 

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Not a good look. I think we wait until Christmas week for anything of note.

Holy Crap. Who opened the door to hell? 

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Went out to sprague brook park today to enjoy the fresh snow.

That looks like a beautiful trail. I love skiing in the trees. Wonderful. Great for cardiac health. 

Maybe a Wayne County special. 

if I were a southern met, I’d be going with something like the ICON. Yeah the mountains will get crushed but I’d be shocked if areas like Charlottesville got 2’ as advertised by some of the others. I think they must be having trouble reconciling sleet and ice. 

In other news, the 10 day storm will at least give us something to watch. Glad Watertown got their big one. Some of the pics are awesome. With my sidesticking methodology I’d be able to log 36”. 

Someone in Orleans Co must be looking at 10” or so. Still coming down there. 

Very little in Monroe. About 1” for me. 

yes please

Nobody South or Southeast will do well. As soon as the bands shift the dry crashes in and puts the old kabash on things.