rochesterdave

RGEM is picking up on a light amount of Lake Effect in eastern Wayne County. Something to watch. Revracer? 

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

 

They are just getting hammered in Italy. It would be a great time to be in the Alps or any other mnts near there. Looks just like LES. 

Bufs snowfall really drops off in February. Rochester stays more consistent for all three months. 

Having a warm lake might make all the difference. 

Classic El Niño. Analogue 82-83 all day. 

As for any SW LES, we’ve talked about it before, my take is that BUF missed its classic December window. 

At least we might see some EC action mixed with clippers. 

It was nice today. I got a bit of vitamin D. 

1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said:

I bought a new snowblower and a brand new 4x4 Toyota Tundra the first week of December.  I havent had to use the snowblower yet and havent even turned on 4x4 once on the truck.  Add me to the blame pile.  

I thought it was me

1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said:

Maybe at KBUF? 

I mean poor BUF. Jesus. 

don’t waste any time on this nonsense 

I’m not buying any of these:  late two stream phases. If they phase it’s gonna be early and swamp us or not at all. 

Pretty much all the models have gone warmer for next weeks storm. It was always a terrible track. I really am starting to wish this winter was just over. 

I don’t see any hopeful signs. None. 

It is freaking brutal. Screw El Niño and his Pacific horse he rode in on. I allowed myself to be sort of manipulated by the overwhelming chorus of folks who kept saying, “yeah, but weak El Niño’s really are good”. Nah, all El Niño’s suck. 

I don’t trust the models to tell us where the two lobes of the PV will end up yet. At least the SSW is throwing a wrench into the horrible machine that is this winter. 

That map needs a little car and a flower that squirts water. 

It’s like a Miller B that comes in from the NW? You guys ever see anything like this? 

This set up looks rough for anyone west of Syracuse. The dacks should do great! As should Killington. 

1 hour ago, CNY_WX said:

We now know who’s been stealing our snow. Eastern Europe has been getting buried the last few days especially the mountainous areas of Greece and the Balkans.  The Alps have been getting massive amounts of snow from what is called the Stau effect. This is basically an orographic driven phenomenon caused when winds hit the Alps perpendicular to the mountain range. The air rises and drops large amount of snow. Now the Appenine Mountains of central Italy are forecast to be buried by ocean effect off of the Adriatic Sea.  The cold air is extensive enough for this to extend all the way to the mountains of Sicily. 

I’ve always thought this part of the earth must be the best place to live. Imagine living in those mountains! I’d bet you could get a house that was high enough for snow but still had a view of the sea? 

Who wants in? 

Euro ensemble members show what a delicate set up it is. I’m thinking, as per past similar events, the ENY area stands the best chance while SW NY and Niagara escarpment stands the least. BUF and ROC don’t really do CAD. But thank god for something to watch!

13 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Don't doubt those Canadians..

 

Canadian model (s) have been great on these little events. I wonder why? 

Cranky is going pretty hard on a pattern shift in the next 2 weeks. That’s about all the positive I can find. The models are still abysmal. I really need Snow Ridge to see some snow in the next 3 weeks. Please!?!

The avatar drives Freak a little bit nuts. Which is why I keep it. I did promise him I’d dump it once we got a good storm. I have a new toy I’m dying to post a pic of and that  will be my new avatar. But alas! No storms. 

12z GFS has a Colorado Low cutting across the nation in about a week. Maybe? Lol

I completely understand the emotional roller coaster some of us have been on. We have a mental problem that is only satiated by snow. When it doesn’t come we get crazy. There’s only a handful of us on the planet. We should be grateful that we found each other;  but instead we will bicker and hurl crap at each other. 

I haven’t even been able to change my ridiculous avatar. Can’t do it until a big one. 

It’s all good. We will survive this horrible, no good, very bad winter. 

10 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

Maybe some good news?

 

http://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/sudden-stratospheric-warming-underway/?fbclid=IwAR2_DEm5NEWCQEmiBCG7QJNudDYRMFf7lcUEwUBG3VRmUbfk9XXxeXCQb8Y

At least we will have some action. Should break it down into 2-3 vortices. Hoping one gets lodged over NE. 

Yesterday:  take two steps back from the ledge 

Today:  take three steps forward 

IDK guys. It’s just gonna be one of those winters. 

Im becoming a tad nervous for my ski trips. Going to Snow Ridge (Turin) Jan 25 and then to Killington on Feb 10. I’m thinking they’ll both have snow but not nearly what I hoped for. 

Damn, just looked, almost all of Snow Ridge is closed. Wow. Ugly. They’re running 1/6 lifts. 

These interactions between the two tracks is gonna be tricky. Who knows, it could re/link up in later runs. Doesn’t look great. 

One of these will. 

Storms lost. Well, it was fun for 6 hrs. Most intrigue we’ve had in a month. 

That is is more like it. Lol