donsutherland1

In 1987, humanity was confronted with a growing ozone hole over the Southern Hemisphere and the implication of an inevitable and dramatic rise in skin cancer cases. The world's leaders at that time, even while taking on an existential Cold War struggle, came together in Montreal to adopt a solution to address the problem. A binding commitment to completely phase out the use of CFCs and halons was agreed. That treaty was universally ratified. Since then, much progress has been made. NASA recently revealed: Thirty-two years ago, the international community signed the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. This agreement regulated the consumption and production of ozone-depleting compounds. Atmospheric levels of man-made ozone depleting substances increased up to the year 2000. Since then, they have slowly declined but remain high enough to produce significant ozone loss. The ozone hole over Antarctica is expected to gradually become less severe as chlorofluorocarbons— banned chlorine-containing synthetic compounds that were once frequently used as coolants—continue to decline. Scientists expect the Antarctic ozone to recover back to the 1980 level around 2070. https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2019/2019-ozone-hole-is-the-smallest-on-record-since-its-discovery Then, science carried the day. Political leaders made the kind of decisions that fall with responsible leadership. They made no excuses. They did not embrace defeatist conclusions that acting would be economically harmful, much less that nothing could be done. They did not descend into "denialism" or conspiracy theories aimed at alleviating accountability from their shoulders. They acted with conviction. They put the world on a better path. Just three decades later, when confronted by another global challenge--that of anthropogenic climate change--the world's leaders abdicated their responsibility in Madrid. They proved unable to summon the courage, foresight, and leadership to tackle the global challenge of the contemporary era. They chose timidity at a time when no great struggle comparable to the Cold War is raging. Put simply, they failed the test of leadership. They demonstrated that although they hold positions of authority, they lack the capacity and qualities necessary to lead. Instead, they chose to remain passive bystanders to history. They failed as leaders. They failed as people. In their enormous failure to lead, they have substantially magnified the burden they have already left to today's youth and future generations to come. In doing so, they have defined their generation as arguably the most short-sighted one in modern history. They chose to leave the world a worse place than they inherited. Given the overwhelming body of scientific evidence and range of tools available to launch a credible effort to curb then reverse greenhouse gas emissions, their fateful choice is a deliberate one. Ignorance is not a valid defense. At the same time, they have unequivocally made clear to today's youth that the concerns and futures of those youth are to be sacrificed for the preservation of the short-sighted status quo. Given the urgency and gravity of the challenge of anthropogenic climate change, this is a most sad outcome. Urgent problems aren't punted to the future year after year. Great problems are not routinely ignored, much less cloaked in the packaging of brave words disconnected from concrete and credible measures to evade responsibility. Fortunately, as time passes, those who occupy today's positions of leadership will gradually depart those positions. In their wake, future generations will be left with a tremendous mess. The passage of time will determine whether leadership capacity on the global stage merely skipped today's generation of global leaders or whether the absence of leadership capacity is a new and persistent problem. Considering that human nature has changed remarkably little since the emergence of Homo Sapiens, the odds are still high that the contemporary leadership deficit is merely a temporary phenomenon.

During the second half of December, the Atlantic is important, especially for the northern Mid-Atlantic region. Since 1950, there have been 19 snowstorms that brought 6" or more snow to at least one of the following cities: Boston, New York City, or Philadelphia. 37% occurred with an AO- (Boston accounted for most of the AO+ storms) and 21% with an AO-/NAO-. For the smaller subset that saw 6" or more snow fall in at least two of those cities, the AO was negative in 86% of the cases and an AO-/NAO- pattern was present in 71% of cases. If one lowers the threshold to 4" or greater storms, those respective figures are 77% and 54%. For now, there remains a window of opportunity.

A quick note: The COP25 conference was, for all intents and purposes (when credible outcomes are considered) a failure. In effect, the colllective choice was to punt to next year. https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/un-climate-talks-end-with-hard-feelings-few-results-and-new-doubts-about-global-unity/2019/12/15/38918278-1ec7-11ea-b4c1-fd0d91b60d9e_story.html

It appears that a significant number of countries that came to the COP25 conference on climate change likely did so for cosmetic appearances rather than serious decisions. Barring last minute developments, inaction and the status quo will likely prevail. One can't rule out a last-ditch flurring of non-binding commitments, but non-binding commitments lack credibility. Hopefully, I am incorrect about this, but the latest news out of Madrid suggests what would, in practical terms, be a failed conference. The BBC reported: The pact's intention is to keep the global average temperature rise to well below 2C. This was regarded at the time as the threshold for dangerous global warming, though scientists subsequently shifted the definition of the "safe" limit to a rise of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. But Mr Meyer commented: "The latest version of the Paris Agreement decision text put forward by the Chilean presidency is totally unacceptable. It has no call for countries to enhance the ambition of their emissions reduction commitments. https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-50795294 That's a ratification of the status quo. The status quo path is not enough. Excerpts from the 2019 Emissions Gap Report: There is no sign of GHG emissions peaking in the next few years; every year of postponed peaking means that deeper and faster cuts will be required. By 2030, emissions would need to be 25 per cent and 55 per cent lower than in 2018 to put the world on the least-cost pathway to limiting global warming to below 2˚C and 1.5°C respectively... Had serious climate action begun in 2010, the cuts required per year to meet the projected emissions levels for 2°C and 1.5°C would only have been 0.7 per cent and 3.3 per cent per year on average. However, since this did not happen, the required cuts in emissions are now 2.7 per cent per year from 2020 for the 2°C goal and 7.6 per cent per year on average for the 1.5°C goal. Evidently, greater cuts will be required the longer that action is delayed. Further delaying the reductions needed to meet the goals would imply future emission reductions and removal of CO2 from the atmosphere at such a magnitude that it would result in a serious deviation from current available pathways. This, together with necessary adaptation actions, risks seriously damaging the global economy and undermining food security and biodiversity. https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/30797/EGR2019.pdf Tragically, the policy path of choice is to delay credible steps, shift the burden to today's youth, and hope that they will possess the courage, foresight, and leadership capacity that the current generation of leaders at the conference lacks. The idea that nothing can be done, market-based approaches are impossible, or credible measures would be economically disruptive are fallacies aimed at preserving the status quo. They are not reality. Even without new technologies, a number of policy tools are available. Those tools include increased reliance on wind, solar, and nuclear power for supply and increases in efficiency to deal with the demand side. The latter may be less costly than scaling up the former, but only at present. Estimated costs of various investments to reduce carbon dioxide emissions: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2019/12/images/122019/Gillingham-tbl-lg2.jpg For comparison, the true cost of carbon emissions per ton is an estimated (median) figure of $477 per ton. http://www.cobham-erc.eu/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/preprint_Ricke2018_country_level_scc.pdf Phasing out production of the dirtiest carbon-based fuels early on, namely coal, should be prioritized. Tax expenditures and other policies that favor carbon-based fuels are not market-oriented. Instead, they skew market function via externalities (cost-shifting to taxpayers, shielding producers from the full costs of their products, etc.). They also prop up a false scenario that makes it appear that the status quo is more beneficial than a transition based on cost-benefit analysis. If the costs associated with the consequences of climate change--ranging from increased storm damage to the impact of rising sea level--were added to the cost of carbon-based fuels responsible for anthropogenic climate change, the cost picture would be quite different. When the full costs of climate change are considered, the status quo is more costly than the transition.

The soggy rainstorm that dumped widespread 1.00"-2.00" rain across the region with local amounts above 2.50" in places left in its wake fog, mist, and unseasonably mild temperatures. A cold front will bring noticeably cooler weather to the region tomorrow. Select rainfall amounts through 7 pm included: Boston: 1.35"; 2019 YTD: 48.08" (27th wettest year on record) Bridgeport: 2.49"; 2019 YTD: 49.09" (10th wettest year on record) Islip: 2.57"; 2019 YTD: 46.50" (22nd wettest year on record) New York City: 1.97"; 2019 YTD: 50.99" (34th wettest year on record) Newark: 1.49"; 2019 YTD: 56.33" (6th wettest year on record) Providence: 2.00"; 2019 YTD: 49.60" (20th wettest year on record) A number of locations saw rainfall amounts of 3.00" or above. Those locations included: Bellerose, NY: 3.02"; Centerport, NY: 3.13"; Centerport (1 SW), NY: 3.16"; East Locust Valley, NY: 3.43"; Killingsworth, CT: 3.16"; Milford, CT: 3.06"; Muttontown, NY: 3.08"; and, Woodbury, NY: 3.46". Into the closing week of December, variability will likely continue to define to weather. As a result, much of the region could see additional snowfall through December 26, along with periodic intrusions of cold air. Whether the major cities see a 6" or greater snowstorm could depend, in large part, on the state of the teleconnections at the time of any storminess. The first system will likely bring a light snowfall to the coastal plain and light to moderate snowfall to interior sections before transitioning to sleet, freezing rain, and then rain during the December 16-17 timeframe. This could be the kind of system that brings 2"-4" across northwestern New Jersey/northeastern Pennsylvania north and eastward to Albany; 1"-2" in Newark; and 1" or less to New York City and Long Island. That storm will be followed by a short but sharp shot of cold. Parts of the region could experience the lowest temperatures so far this season. New York City could see the lowest temperature approach 20° and perhaps one day where the high temperature remains below 30°. Another window of opportunity could be available during the December 21-23 timeframe. During that time, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and NAO are forecast to be negative. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around December 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C. These recent conditions are consistent with a weak El Niño. Nevertheless, a neutral ENSO remains the base case for Winter 2019-20 and the recent cooling in Region 3.4 suggests that the base case remains viable. The SOI was -11.31 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.213. Since 1950, 13 years saw the AO average +1.000 or above for the first 15 days of December, which is very likely this year. Only 3 (23%) wound up with a colder than normal December in New York City (which appears likely at present). The most recent such case was December 1988 when New York City had a mean December temperature of 35.9°. 85% of such cases went on to record less than 30.0" seasonal snowfall in New York City and Newark. One notable exception was winter 2013-14 when 57.4" snow was recorded in New York City and 61.1" in Newark. No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through December 23. However, a brief period of warming could occur near 1 mb and above after December 20. Wave 2 activity is forecast to remain relatively weak. Overall, the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold into the fourth week of December on the EPS. On December 13, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.301 (RMM). The December 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.120. Large differences between the EPS and GEFS persist beyond Day 10. The GEFS is notably colder than the EPS with much of North America and the Northern Hemisphere covered by cold anomalies. Both show the coldest anomalies over a portion of northern Asia. The colder idea has more often than not prevailed since late autumn. However, the GEFS forecast for the EPO for the closing week of December has moved toward the EPS forecast (mainly EPO+). When it comes to New York City's 4" or greater snowstorms during the second half of December, the AO is highly important. Since 1950, December 16-31 has seen 15 storms bring 4.0" or more snow to New York City. 73% occurred with an AO-. Further, 80% of the 6" or greater snowstorms during this timeframe occurred when the AO was negative. Even as the PNA and NAO had a lesser impact on the 4" or greater snowstorms, an NAO- was present in 70% of the 6" or greater snowstorms during that timeframe and a PNA+ was also present during 70% of the 6" or greater snowstorms. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that December will wind up colder than normal in New York City.

This afternoon was often foggy with occasional mist. Temperatures were in the lower 50s. Three photos from this afternoon:

Shirley is currently 61.

355 NOUS41 KOKX 141224 PNSOKX CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-150024- Public Information Statement Spotter Reports National Weather Service New York NY 724 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019 The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 26 hours for the storm that has been affecting our region. Appreciation is extended to highway departments, cooperative observers, Skywarn spotters and media for these reports. This summary also is available on our home page at weather.gov/nyc ********************STORM TOTAL RAINFALL******************** LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS RAINFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT CONNECTICUT ...Fairfield County... Westport 2.52 647 AM 12/14 CWOP Westport 2.38 705 AM 12/14 CWOP Bridgeport Airport 2.33 652 AM 12/14 ASOS 1 NW Stratford 2.28 705 AM 12/14 AWS Shelton 2.14 631 AM 12/14 CWOP Danbury 2.08 703 AM 12/14 CWOP 3 N New Canaan 2.02 704 AM 12/14 AWS Danbury 1.96 658 AM 12/14 CWOP Norwalk 1.91 656 AM 12/14 CWOP Stratford 1.88 701 AM 12/14 CWOP Monroe 1.88 702 AM 12/14 CWOP Westport 1.83 700 AM 12/14 CWOP 3 NE Wilton 1.77 705 AM 12/14 AWS Danbury Airport 1.55 653 AM 12/14 ASOS Greenwich 1.55 702 AM 12/14 CWOP 2 SW Bridgeport 1.48 705 AM 12/14 AWS Stamford 1.43 700 AM 12/14 CWOP Redding 1.36 700 AM 12/14 CWOP Danbury 1.21 703 AM 12/14 CWOP 1 WSW Shelton 1.07 704 AM 12/14 AWS ...Middlesex County... East Haddam 2.38 702 AM 12/14 CWOP Killingsworth 2.23 630 AM 12/14 CWOP Clinton 2.16 704 AM 12/14 CWOP 2 N Durham 1.99 704 AM 12/14 AWS Durham 1.92 702 AM 12/14 CWOP Clinton 1.46 700 AM 12/14 CWOP ...New Haven County... Milford 3.02 658 AM 12/14 CWOP East Haven 2.63 702 AM 12/14 CWOP New Haven Airport 2.50 653 AM 12/14 ASOS Seymour 2.22 702 AM 12/14 CWOP 1 E Branford 2.20 704 AM 12/14 AWS Southbury 2.09 702 AM 12/14 CWOP 2 WNW Woodmont 2.07 705 AM 12/14 AWS 1 ESE New Haven 2.06 704 AM 12/14 AWS Wallingford 2.04 700 AM 12/14 CWOP Branford 1.98 705 AM 12/14 CWOP Meriden Airport 1.91 653 AM 12/14 ASOS Bethany 1.84 701 AM 12/14 CWOP New Haven 1.78 701 AM 12/14 CWOP Waterbury Airport 1.74 651 AM 12/14 AWOS 1 NE Meriden 1.26 705 AM 12/14 AWS 3 SE Branford 1.18 705 AM 12/14 AWS Cheshire 1.05 226 AM 12/14 CWOP ...New London County... Groton Airport 2.16 656 AM 12/14 ASOS New London 1.49 705 AM 12/14 CWOP Lyme 1.49 701 AM 12/14 CWOP Lisbon 1.39 702 AM 12/14 CWOP New London 1.25 703 AM 12/14 CWOP NEW JERSEY ...Bergen County... Oradell 1.57 429 AM 12/14 CWOP Tenafly 1.57 704 AM 12/14 URBANET 2 N Wyckoff 1.56 600 AM 12/14 IFLOWS Hasbrouck Heights 1.54 702 AM 12/14 CWOP Maywood 1.45 659 AM 12/14 CWOP Teterboro Airport 1.45 651 AM 12/14 ASOS Ridgewood 1.42 700 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter Haworth 1.41 600 AM 12/14 NJWXNET 1 SSE Franklin Lakes 1.32 645 AM 12/14 IFLOWS Tenafly 1.30 704 AM 12/14 CWOP Park Ridge 1.23 245 AM 12/14 IFLOWS Lodi 1.20 600 AM 12/14 IFLOWS Norwood 1.18 704 AM 12/14 AWS 1 W Oakland 1.09 500 AM 12/14 HADS Oakland 1.00 700 AM 12/14 CWOP ...Essex County... 2 W Millburn 1.40 615 AM 12/14 HADS Cedar Grove 1.34 650 AM 12/14 CWOP Bloomfield 1.32 700 AM 12/14 CWOP West Orange 1.11 705 AM 12/14 CWOP Caldwell 1.01 653 AM 12/14 ASOS ...Hudson County... Jersey City 1.52 600 AM 12/14 NJWXNET Weehawken 1.08 705 AM 12/14 AWS Harrison 1.08 704 AM 12/14 Co-Op Observer Bayonne 1.05 705 AM 12/14 AWS ...Passaic County... Ringwood 1.32 410 AM 12/14 RAWS Butler 1.31 630 AM 12/14 CWOP West Milford 1.28 615 AM 12/14 IFLOWS Charlottesburg Reser 1.28 630 AM 12/14 Co-Op Observer 3 E Green Pond 1.24 500 AM 12/14 IFLOWS Passaic 1.22 700 AM 12/14 CWOP 1 SE Pompton Lakes 1.19 600 AM 12/14 HADS 1 E West Paterson 1.12 545 AM 12/14 HADS 2 ENE Green Pond 1.09 600 AM 12/14 NJWXNET West Milford 1.08 704 AM 12/14 CWOP 2 NW Green Pond 1.00 500 AM 12/14 IFLOWS 2 SW Ringwood 1.00 600 AM 12/14 IFLOWS ...Union County... Newark Airport 1.47 651 AM 12/14 ASOS Union 1.04 701 AM 12/14 CWOP NEW YORK ...Kings County... Sheepshead Bay 2.37 700 AM 12/14 CWOP Brooklyn 1.53 705 AM 12/14 CWOP Manhattan Beach 1.28 704 AM 12/14 CWOP ...Nassau County... Woodbury 3.44 704 AM 12/14 CWOP Muttontown 3.01 701 AM 12/14 CWOP Carle Place 2.93 659 AM 12/14 CWOP Great Neck 2.80 703 AM 12/14 CWOP Oyster Bay 2.62 700 AM 12/14 CWOP Levittown 2.58 645 AM 12/14 CWOP Syosset 2.53 705 AM 12/14 CWOP East Rockaway 2.43 700 AM 12/14 CWOP Thomaston 2.35 704 AM 12/14 AWS Westbury 2.19 705 AM 12/14 AWS North Merrick 2.16 703 AM 12/14 CWOP Valley Stream 2.14 701 AM 12/14 CWOP Matinecock 2.01 705 AM 12/14 AWS Old Westbury 1.98 656 AM 12/14 CWOP Merrick 1.46 702 AM 12/14 CWOP Massapequa Park 1.43 703 AM 12/14 CWOP Bellmore 1.35 705 AM 12/14 AWS Wantagh 1.30 703 AM 12/14 CWOP Freeport 1.28 704 AM 12/14 AWS ...New York County... Central Park 1.93 651 AM 12/14 ASOS New York 1.66 701 AM 12/14 CWOP 1 SE Edgewater 1.49 705 AM 12/14 AWS ...Orange County... Usma 1.32 655 AM 12/14 RAWS Middletown 1.27 700 AM 12/14 CWOP Vails Gate 1.04 701 AM 12/14 CWOP Salisbury Mills 1.02 705 AM 12/14 CWOP ...Queens County... Bellerose 2.99 701 AM 12/14 CWOP NYC/JFK Airport 2.72 651 AM 12/14 ASOS Jackson Heights 2.18 704 AM 12/14 CWOP NYC/La Guardia 2.05 651 AM 12/14 ASOS Beechhurst 1.29 704 AM 12/14 CWOP Little Neck 1.07 1045 PM 12/13 Trained Spotter ...Richmond County... Staten Island 1.79 701 AM 12/14 CWOP ...Rockland County... Nanuet 1.55 445 AM 12/14 IFLOWS Sloatsburg 1.25 702 AM 12/14 CWOP 1 SSW Mount Ivy 1.12 705 AM 12/14 AWS Blauvelt 1.06 701 AM 12/14 CWOP Spring Valley 1.01 700 AM 12/14 CWOP Montebello 1.00 703 AM 12/14 CWOP ...Suffolk County... Lake Ronkonkoma 2.90 701 AM 12/14 CWOP Terryville 2.89 704 AM 12/14 CWOP Northport 2.87 700 AM 12/14 CWOP Islip Airport 2.81 656 AM 12/14 ASOS Shirley Airport 2.58 656 AM 12/14 ASOS Stony Brook 2.57 704 AM 12/14 CWOP Dix Hills 2.55 704 AM 12/14 CWOP Baiting Hollow 2.53 705 AM 12/14 CWOP Port Jefferson Stati 2.48 657 AM 12/14 CWOP Kings Park 2.46 703 AM 12/14 CWOP Upton 2.37 700 AM 12/14 NWS Office Eastport 2.29 645 AM 12/14 RAWS East Northport 2.19 627 AM 12/14 CWOP Sayville 2.16 645 AM 12/14 CWOP Smithtown 2.15 701 AM 12/14 CWOP Fort Salonga 2.13 702 AM 12/14 CWOP West Islip 2.08 704 AM 12/14 CWOP Miller Place 2.06 702 AM 12/14 CWOP Farmingville 2.05 702 AM 12/14 CWOP Greenlawn 2.05 402 AM 12/14 CWOP Westhampton Airport 1.99 653 AM 12/14 ASOS Melville 1.95 650 AM 12/14 CWOP Fort Salonga 1.87 654 AM 12/14 AWS Cutchogue 1.86 703 AM 12/14 CWOP Eastport 1.83 628 AM 12/14 CWOP Farmingdale Airport 1.78 653 AM 12/14 ASOS N. Babylon 1.65 705 AM 12/14 CWOP 1 WNW Babylon 1.61 655 AM 12/14 AWS Melville 1.60 701 AM 12/14 CWOP Islip Terrace 1.52 700 AM 12/14 CWOP Orient 1.41 700 AM 12/14 CWOP North Babylon 1.38 702 AM 12/14 CWOP West Gilgo Beach 1.35 701 AM 12/14 CWOP Hampton Bays 1.29 702 AM 12/14 CWOP Southold 1.26 703 AM 12/14 CWOP Cutchogue 1.24 703 AM 12/14 CWOP Blue Point 1.18 645 AM 12/14 CWOP East Hampton 1.10 703 AM 12/14 CWOP Hampton Bays 1.09 707 AM 12/14 AWS Orient 1.04 700 AM 12/14 CWOP ...Westchester County... Mount Kisco 2.13 705 AM 12/14 CWOP White Plains Airport 2.02 656 AM 12/14 ASOS Tarrytown 1.91 702 AM 12/14 CWOP Armonk 1.58 703 AM 12/14 CWOP Pleasantville 1.49 704 AM 12/14 AWS Armonk 1.29 701 AM 12/14 CWOP Midland Park 1.28 630 AM 12/14 IFLOWS Peekskill 1.23 703 AM 12/14 CWOP Mamaroneck 1.17 704 AM 12/14 AWS

Through 10 pm, New York City had picked up 0.49" rain. That brings year-to-date precipitation to 49.51". As a result, 2019 is the 37th wettest year on record. With a 1.00"-2.00" storm total rainfall likely, with a possible figure as high as 2.50", New York City is now on the brink of reaching 50.00" precipitation for the second consecutive year. Since daily records were recorded starting in 1869, 33 prior years have seen 50.00" or more precipitation in New York City. 21/33 (64%) of those years occurred after 1970.

A soaking rain is drenching the region. Some interior sections were experiencing some mixed precipitation this evening. By the time the storm departs, the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions will have picked up 1.00"-2.00" of precipitation. Locally higher amounts near or even in excess of 2.50" are possible. As of 9 pm, New York City had received 0.37" rain. That brings the 2019 total to 49.39", which ranks 2019 as New York City's 37th wettest year on record just ahead of 2010 when 49.37" precipitation was recorded. Over the next 1-2 weeks, variability will likely continue to define to weather. As a result, much of the region could see additional snowfall through December 26. Whether the major cities see a 6" or greater snowstorm could depend, in large part, on the state of the teleconnections at the time of any storminess. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around December 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C. These recent conditions are consistent with a weak El Niño. Nevertheless, a neutral ENSO remains the base case for Winter 2019-20 and the recent cooling in Region 3.4 suggests that the base case remains viable. The SOI was -3.79 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.024. The AO has averaged +1.737 through the first 13 days of December. Since 1950, 13 years saw the AO average +1.000 or above for the first 15 days of December, which is very likely this year. Only 3 (23%) wound up with a colder than normal December in New York City (which appears likely at present). The most recent such case was December 1988 when New York City had a mean December temperature of 35.9°. No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through December 22. However, a brief period of warming could commence late in the period at 2 mb and above. Wave 2 activity is forecast to remain relatively weak. Overall, the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold through the third week of December on the EPS. On December 12, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.124 (RMM). The December 11-adjusted amplitude was 0.960. Large differences between the EPS and GEFS persist beyond Day 10. The GEFS is notably colder than the EPS with much of North America covered by cold anomalies. To date, the colder idea has more often than not prevailed since late autumn. When it comes to New York City's 4" or greater snowstorms during the second half of December, the AO is highly important. Since 1950, December 16-31 has seen 15 storms bring 4.0" or more snow to New York City. 73% occurred with an AO-. Further, 80% of the 6" or greater snowstorms during this timeframe occurred when the AO was negative. Even as the PNA and NAO had a lesser impact on the 4" or greater snowstorms, an NAO- was present in 70% of the 6" or greater snowstorms during that timeframe and a PNA+ was also present during 70% of the 6" or greater snowstorms. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 62% probability that December will wind up colder than normal in New York City. 　 　

The latest guidance is indicating that much of the region will receive a general 1.00"-2.00" precipitation with locally higher amounts (especially in eastern New England) of 2.50". As a result, New York City will very likely reach 50" precipitation for the second consecutive year. Allentown will likely reach 60" precipitation for a record-breaking second consecutive year. After 1970, New York City has moved into an abruptly wetter climate regime. During the 1869-1970 period, New York City averaged 42.89" annual precipitation with a return time of 50.00" or more precipitation of every 8.5 years. 1971-2018 has had average annual precipitation of 50.74" (more than 1 standard deviation above the 1869-1970 average). The return time for years with 50.00" or more precipitation has fallen sharply to 2.3 years (2.2 should 2019 reach 50.00"). Below is a table for year-to-date precipitation, how 2019 currently ranks among the wettest years on record, and rankings for various precipitation scenarios:

Through December 12, seasonal snowfall amounts to date for select cities are: Albany: 26.8", 7.0" above normal Allentown: 1.6", 0.5" below normal Baltimore: 0.2", 1.1" below normal Binghamton: 19.8", 7.4" above normal Boston: 10.1", 6.5" above normal Burlington: 17.8", 7.0" above normal Caribou: 33.4", 13.9" above normal Harrisburg: 0.2", 1.9"below normal Islip: 3.9", 2.2" above normal New York City: 1.8", 0.4" above normal Newark: 3.2", 1.6" above normal Philadelphia: 0.1", 1.0" below normal Portland: 10.5", 5.1" above normal Providence: 7.3", 3.3" above normal Richmond: 1.0", 0.2" above normal Scranton: 7.0", 2.1" above normal Washington, DC: 0.3", 0.9" below normal Over the next two weeks, much of the region could see additional snowfall. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around December 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C. These recent conditions are consistent with a weak El Niño. Nevertheless, a neutral ENSO remains the base case for Winter 2019-20 and the recent cooling in Region 3.4 suggests that the base case remains viable. The SOI was -0.99 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.239. No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through December 21. However, warming could commence late in the period at 2 mb and above. Wave 2 activity is forecast to remain relatively weak. Overall, the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold through the third week of December on the EPS. On December 11, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.926 (RMM). The December 10-adjusted amplitude was 0.774. There continues to remain a degree of uncertainty concerning the evolution of the pattern and overall outcome for the closing week of December. So far, the colder idea has more often than not prevailed since late autumn. When it comes to New York City's 4" or greater snowstorms during the second half of December, the AO is highly important. Since 1950, December 16-31 has seen 15 storms bring 4.0" or more snow to New York City. 73% occurred with an AO-. Further, 80% of the 6" or greater snowstorms during this timeframe occurred when the AO was negative. Even as the PNA and NAO had a lesser impact on the 4" or greater snowstorms, an NAO- was present in 70% of the 6" or greater snowstorms during that timeframe and a PNA+ was also present during 70% of the 6" or greater snowstorms. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that December will wind up colder than normal in New York City. In addition, there is an implied 81% probability that New York City will reach 50" or more precipitation for 2019.

Some quick thoughts as I am still out of town: 1. Over the next 10 days, variability will remain the theme with alternating periods of warmth and cold. No exceptional cold appears likely. 2. Precipitation should remain above average with New York City again reaching 50" annual precipitation and Allentown perhaps reaching 60" for a record second consecutive year. 3. The AO looks to remain predominantly positive through the next 10-14 days with perhaps a 5-7-day dip near the December 20 +/- a few days. 4. During this period, the potential for at least some snowfall exists. 5. The EPS suggests that there is a risk that the coldest air could shift to the other side of the Northern Hemisphere after Day 10. That would again mitigate the risk of Arctic outbreaks. By mid-month, most of the U.S. except for New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic could have warm monthly anomalies. New York City could have a modest cold anomaly despite a much colder than normal start to the month. How the month finishes will depend on the progression of the MJO within the context of a fading positive Indian Ocean Dipole anomaly, the SOI, and the teleconnections.

000 NOUS41 KOKX 111307 PNSOKX CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-120107- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SPOTTER REPORTS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 807 AM EST WED DEC 11 2019 THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS, COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS, SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY ALSO IS AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC ********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL******************** LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT CONNECTICUT ...FAIRFIELD COUNTY... DANBURY 3.7 750 AM 12/11 SOCIAL MEDIA BETHEL 3.5 700 AM 12/11 EMERGENCY MANAGER WESTON 2.6 700 AM 12/11 TRAINED SPOTTER BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT 2.2 700 AM 12/11 CO-OP OBSERVER ...MIDDLESEX COUNTY... PORTLAND 2.5 605 AM 12/11 AMATEUR RADIO ...NEW HAVEN COUNTY... WOODBRIDGE 3.5 720 AM 12/11 PUBLIC GUILFORD 3.0 630 AM 12/11 CO-OP OBSERVER HAMDEN 2.7 730 AM 12/11 PUBLIC MILFORD 1.0 605 AM 12/11 AMATEUR RADIO ...NEW LONDON COUNTY... LEDYARD CENTER 2.0 800 AM 12/11 TRAINED SPOTTER NEW JERSEY ...BERGEN COUNTY... OAKLAND 1.5 800 AM 12/11 SOCIAL MEDIA RIDGEWOOD 1.0 700 AM 12/11 TRAINED SPOTTER ...UNION COUNTY... CRANFORD 0.5 630 AM 12/11 TRAINED SPOTTER NEWARK AIRPORT 0.5 700 AM 12/11 FAA OBSERVER NEW YORK ...NASSAU COUNTY... WOODBURY 3.0 730 AM 12/11 BROADCAST MEDIA WEST HEMPSTEAD 2.0 755 AM 12/11 SOCIAL MEDIA MERRICK 1.8 800 AM 12/11 TRAINED SPOTTER MANHASSET HILLS 1.2 745 AM 12/11 SOCIAL MEDIA VALLEY STREAM 1.1 800 AM 12/11 TRAINED SPOTTER NEW HYDE PARK 1.0 540 AM 12/11 TRAINED SPOTTER ...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) COUNTY... CENTRAL PARK 0.2 700 AM 12/11 PARK CONSERVANCY ...ORANGE COUNTY... NEWBURGH 2.5 745 AM 12/11 TRAINED SPOTTER MONROE 2.3 600 AM 12/11 TRAINED SPOTTER ...PUTNAM COUNTY... MAHOPAC 3.5 700 AM 12/11 TRAINED SPOTTER BREWSTER 3.2 755 AM 12/11 TRAINED SPOTTER ...QUEENS COUNTY... NYC/LAGUARDIA AIRPOR 0.6 700 AM 12/11 FAA OBSERVER NYC/JFK AIRPORT 0.5 700 AM 12/11 FAA OBSERVER ...ROCKLAND COUNTY... STONY POINT 1.3 700 AM 12/11 TRAINED SPOTTER ...SUFFOLK COUNTY... NESCONSET 3.0 700 AM 12/11 SOCIAL MEDIA WEST BABYLON 1.0 720 AM 12/11 SOCIAL MEDIA ISLIP AIRPORT 0.8 700 AM 12/11 FAA OBSERVER ...WESTCHESTER COUNTY... WINDMILL FARM 2.8 730 AM 12/11 PUBLIC SPRING VALLEY 1.9 750 AM 12/11 SOCIAL MEDIA &&

Snow, without question.

Central Park has switched to light snow.

Thanks Jerry. I hope all is well with you and also that the snowfall amounts are underdone.

Tomorrow will be very mild in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England region. Temperatures should top out in the upper 50s in southern New England and lower 60s in much of the Middle Atlantic region. This unseasonable warmth will be short-lived.　 As the front slowly moves eastward, a wave could develop along the front bringing parts of the region a light snowfall late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia could be in line for perhaps an inch or two of slushy snow, especially on grassy surfaces. Outside the cities, a general 2"-4" with locally higher amounts appears possible. Lesser amounts remain possible should the arrival of the cold air be somewhat delayed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around December 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C. These recent conditions are consistent with a weak El Niño. Nevertheless, a neutral ENSO remains the base case for Winter 2019-20 and the recent cooling in Region 3.4 suggests that the base case remains viable. The SOI was -4.72 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.922. In the long-range, there is disagreement among the guidance. The GEFS is colder than the EPS. The latest week 2 and 3 forecasts for the CFSv2 have moved dramatically away from the severe cold that prior runs had shown. The progression of the MJO over the next 10 days and the evolution of the AO could provide insight. No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through December 18. Wave 2 activity is forecast to remain suppressed and the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold past mid-month on the EPS. According to NCEP, the correlation of 16-day 10 mb GFS temperature forecasts is near 0.25 (much worse than flipping a coin). 5 mb forecasts have an even lower correlation. When it comes to New York City's 4" or greater snowstorms the PNA is more important than the AO during the first half of December. Since 1950, December 1-15 has seen 10 storms bring 4.0" or more snow to New York City. 50% occurred with an AO- or AO+. However, 80% occurred when the PNA was positive. All 6" or greater snowstorms during this timeframe occurred when the PNA was positive. The December 1-3 storm occurred with a negative PNA and Central Park received 1.6" snow. During the second half of December, larger snowstorms have occurred with a negative PNA.

Following a mild start to the work week, a cold front will move across the region on Tuesday with additional periods of rain. Ahead of the front, much of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England region could see temperatures top out in the upper 50s and even at or above 60° tomorrow and/or Tuesday. The unseasonable warmth will be short-lived. As the front slowly moves eastward, a wave could develop along the front bringing parts of the region a light snowfall late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia could be in line for perhaps an inch or two of slushy snow, especially on grassy surfaces. Outside the cities, a general 2"-4" with locally higher amounts appears possible. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around November 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.62°C. These recent conditions are consistent with a weak El Niño. Nevertheless, a neutral ENSO remains the base case for Winter 2019-20. The SOI was +4.83 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.725. In the long-range, there is considerable disagreement among the guidance. The GEFS is colder than the EPS. The CFSv2 favors much colder than normal conditions during weeks 2 and 3 with widespread two-week anomalies of 5° or more below normal. The forecast teleconnections argue for a less cold outcome, though the kind of warmth shown at the extended range of the EPS is not yet a high probability outcome. The progression of the MJO over the next 10 days and the evolution of the AO could provide insight. No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through December 17. Wave 2 activity is forecast to remain suppressed and the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold through mid-month on the EPS. According to NCEP, the correlation of 16-day 10 mb GFS temperature forecasts is near 0.25 (much worse than flipping a coin). 5 mb forecasts have an even lower correlation. On December 7, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.925 (RMM). The December 6-adjusted amplitude was 0.859. When it comes to New York City's 4" or greater snowstorms the PNA is more important than the AO during the first half of December. Since 1950, December 1-15 has seen 10 storms bring 4.0" or more snow to New York City. 50% occurred with an AO- or AO+. However, 80% occurred when the PNA was positive. All 6" or greater snowstorms during this timeframe occurred when the PNA was positive. The December 1-3 storm occurred with a negative PNA and Central Park received 1.6" snow. During the second half of December, larger snowstorms have occurred with a negative PNA.

Utqiagvik is easily on course for its warmest year on record. It is all but improbable that the record will fall. Further, that city will likely finish with its first annual mean temperature of 20.0 degrees or above.

Following yesterday's mild readings, today saw readings remain well below normal across the region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around November 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.62°C. These recent conditions are consistent with a weak El Niño. Nevertheless, a neutral ENSO remains the base case for Winter 2019-20. The SOI was +7.16 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.496. No significant stratospheric warming appears likely through December 16. Wave 2 activity is forecast to remain suppressed and the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold through mid-month on the EPS. According to NCEP, the correlation of 16-day 10 mb GFS temperature forecasts is near 0.25 (much worse than flipping a coin). 5 mb forecasts have an even lower correlation. On December 6, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.854 (RMM). The December 5-adjusted amplitude was 0.631. The first week of December saw readings average more than 4° below normal across the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions. A more variable pattern is now poised to develop. There is a chance that the coming week could see one or more days with much above normal readings topping out in the 50s and perhaps even near 60° in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. Nevertheless, cold shots will continue to occur on a periodic basis. By December 15, the anomaly will likely be 1°-2° below normal. The third week of the month could turn colder and possibly for a more sustained period of time, especially if the EPO goes negative. When it comes to New York City's 4" or greater snowstorms the PNA is more important than the AO during the first half of December. Since 1950, December 1-15 has seen 10 storms bring 4.0" or more snow to New York City. 50% occurred with an AO- or AO+. However, 80% occurred when the PNA was positive. All 6" or greater snowstorms during this timeframe occurred when the PNA was positive. The December 1-3 storm occurred with a negative PNA and Central Park received 1.6" snow. During the second half of December, larger snowstorms have occurred with a negative PNA.

Despite bright sunshine and a cloudless sky during the mid- and late-afternoon, the temperature in New York City reached a maximum reading of 38°. The snow from earlier in the week had almost completely disappeared from the landscape. At the New York Botanical Garden, the annual train show was underway. At the show were replicas of present and past New York City-area landmarks constructed out of wood and other natural materials. Four photos (three from inside the show for a flavor).

It’s a strong Arctic front. Hopefully, the record will fall.

The week 2-3 forecast on the CFSv2 (-3.5 degree C average anomaly) could be overdone. It’s an outlier relative to the other guidance.

Back on October 30, Social Media contained a forecast for an exceptionally cold pattern to lock in. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52511-autumn-2019-banter-thread/?do=findComment&comment=5338034 While there is always high uncertainty in the extended range, the probability of extreme patterns locking in for weeks at a time is relatively low (not zero, but low). Some examples include the exceptionally cold February of 2015 and the historically warm December of 2015. In general, one needs strong evidence to make such forecasts. At the time, the forecast state of the teleconnections argued against the outcome. Here's the forecast and the actual outcome: 11/16-30 temperatures for two select sites: NYC: 43.0° (2.3° below normal); ORD: Actual: 38.3° (0.6° above normal).