Quincy

Not the greatest or most compelling footage out there, but here’s a 16ish minute clip showing a large portion of the life cycle of last night’s tornado, from my vantage point:

That is really sad to see. It seemed like a mostly rural area and the warning echoed that, but obviously there was some unfortunate destruction. I’m processing a 15 minute wide angle video of the tornado. Not only was it a slow mover, but the motion was really erratic. I’ll share when it’s up. It was a great chase, but it’s ever great to see damage like that.

Just witnessed a long-lived, slow moving tornado south of Granada, CO. Limited bandwidth, so posting this for now:

Multiple tornado warnings at the moment across central Wyoming. A tornado watch is in effect for parts of eastern Wyoming and vicinity. Other storms will be possible up and down the High Plains, immediately ahead of a dryline. Storms could interact with an outflow boundary near the Texas panhandle and convective initiation is also underway on the nose of a dryline bulge in southeastern Colorado. Tomorrow may be the final day for a bit with relatively widespread severe potential across the sub forum, as a shortwave ejects east across the Dakotas. Details are unclear, but the severe potential seems to be focused on Iowa and surrounding areas.

I stayed away from the Denver hail and tornado, favored more discrete supercell development in northeastern New Mexico:

When you get 70 dew points to the Caprock, big/bad things can happen. Today’s High Plains environment looks slightly less volatile, along with slightly less juiced moisture. With that said, several modified boundaries could be the focus for widely scattered supercell development this afternoon and evening.

Well thank you, but not even sure that’s my best. Probably my favorite from this year though. The Northern Plains storms are something else, especially with the open country and relative lack of other chasers. The northeastern Colorado tornado-fest makes sense in hindsight, while most of us were blinded by the potential for more discrete activity in southeastern Wyoming.

Pretty wacky environment near the outflow boundary in the Texas panhandle. Deep layer shear may be modest, but CAMs show 6000-9000 J/kg MLCAPE by peak heating. SPC has an enhanced risk near that area and also near the CO/NE/WY border region. One of those events where you can see multiple intense supercells form over widely spaced areas.

Active pattern coming up for High Plains severe threats. Wednesday focuses on eastern Wyoming and northeastern Colorado. Thursday should be somewhat farther south. As stronger upper level flow ejects eastward, Friday has the potential to feature a widespread severe threat from much of the High Plains, eastward into parts of Kansas and possibly even Oklahoma. The signal is strong, not necessarily for a high end event, but for a relatively expansive area with severe potential.

Chased a supercell from southeastern Montana into western North Dakota Monday evening:

It’s been a tough season for Kansas and Nebraska. I’ve been chasing quite a bit this year, but only a few select events in Kansas. Barely in Nebraska at all, only a couple of the far southwest counties, briefly. Hoping for some Northern Plains action today and tomorrow. Today could feature a supercell or two in eastern Montana. Tomorrow looks like quick-to-linear over the Dakotas. Beyond that, the pattern is kind of funky. Sure, enhanced upper level flow over the Northern Rockies, but another cutoff low over the Southeast means a fairly nebulous severe pattern. Maybe a couple of events over the High Plains, but not much to the east over the lower elevations. There might finally be an ejecting shortwave by Friday/Saturday, but I’ll hold my breath on that.

The 00z JAN sounding signifies a once in a generation type of setup for meteorological summer. (I do realize it’s not a prominent EML, but still, yet another absurd sounding for June). The last time we had a June pattern like this was 1998. Before that, you have to go back to the 70s.

77 mph gust at Tulsa International Airport. I know the bow looked impressive (was showing 120+ mph velocities at 1.6kft AGL), but I’m a little suspect of that 100 mph spotter report. Sure it’s possible, but perfectly rounded and no context, like station height, estimate vs. recorded, etc. Anyway, two MCSs continue across the Mid-South vicinity from the overnight activity. There could be some renewed severe threat in their wakes, assuming adequate airmass recovery.

Avoiding the HP grunge and chaser conga lines. Currently on this supercell near Canadian, TX.

Tornado Watch up for the OK/TX panhandles and western Oklahoma. There will probably be a few tornadoes, but huge hail seems to be the more widespread hazard. (Wind will, probably, become the biggest hazard overnight, as storms merge)

Storms should be predominantly discrete/semi-discrete through 00z, especially around the Texas panhandle vicinity. Storm initiation with southward extent is a bit of a question mark, but Northwest Texas could get in on the action too, before storms grow upscale. Agreed that most of the later stuff is messy. More heavy rain and wind anticipated for much of central Oklahoma and North Texas.

Illustrating the upper level setup for tomorrow vs. yesterday. A few small differences, but the main change appears to be placement slightly farther NW and, probably, somewhat later convective initiation.

Isolated severe storms across the region today, but tomorrow dials up the risk again. In fact, tomorrow looks similar to yesterday. A belt of unseasonably strong upper level flow in place from the Southern Rockies to the Lower Mississippi Valley with a shortwave ejecting toward KS/OK.

Wild atmospheric conditions around the Southern Plains tonight. I just encountered nearly tennis ball size hail from modest (at first glance) looking reflectivity returns. 00z FWD and OUN soundings have crazy elements as well:

Seceral WoFS members show convective initiation across North Texas by 21-22z. That would not surprise me at all, given recent trends.

95/95 probabilities for large hail/sig hail

Interesting situation. I can’t imagine they’d go with a PDS tornado watch with relatively “low” significant tornado probabilities. Also, if storm mode stays relatively discrete, especially south of I-40, can’t see them going with a severe thunderstorm watch. Maybe an initial tornado watch out west and wait for a later watch near I-35?

Saw that. Was kind of odd. I almost posted an analog (5/15/03), but it shows a regional tornado outbreak and has a few key differences synoptically. This is really a unique event given the time of year. I can’t say that there are many analogs that seem to closely match today. You could see mostly hailers with big wind later, given higher LCLs and modest low level shear. On the other hand, you could have a couple of strong/intense tornadoes, IF sustained storms manage to remain at least semi discrete, and can tap into better moisture and low level shear after 23-00z.

Looks like we’ll have several intense supercells today. The entire region from North Texas to the OK/TX panhandles looks to have a higher end parameter space. I’d suspect storm modes get clustered/linear by early evening across central/northern Oklahoma. More discrete storms appear probable across southern Oklahoma and North Texas DFW may be in the cross hairs as a tail end Charlie storm could tap into lower 70s dews and prove to become quite intense.

When you get the jet so far south in June… is when you get a northerly wind on the “cool” side of an outflow boundary with 5000+ CAPE and mid-70s dews. (DFW area) Towers are attempting to go up near that boundary. Will be interesting to see if any updrafts can become sustained, given the conditionally volatile environment.