DopplerWx

encouraging to see the icon bring the snow line south finally.  

1 minute ago, CentralNC said:

Setup reminds me a little of Dec 2009

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20091218/

 

good find, yeah that's probably about right.

4 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

I would generally agree with you but we have two ensemble model suites screaming about this. 

i know but i remember in jan 2017 every single ensemble member showed 12"+ for rdu, and i was thinking that there was no way they would all be wrong on temps.  and they all were and we got a sleetfest.

1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

It's not surprising it's trended warmer, being early December, all frozen events are extremely rare

yep, climo says no and we are dealing with marginal cold at best.  anyone outside of the mountains that has their hopes up needs to save themselves a lot of heartbreak and expect rain. any snow falling before christmas is a win. these clown maps are ridiculous and they give people the expectation of monster totals, when in reality even an inch of snow in early december would be amazing.

for our decent storms the warm nose doesn't bring us back down to reality until 48-72hrs out, so to see this so early is not good. mountains and foothills are understandably excited but if anyone thinks CLT and RDU aren't in for a classic screwjob you're mistaken.  That 2017 snow/ice map is probably going to be close to reality for this event.

rain snow line is just north of clt it looks like at 120

4 minutes ago, Poimen said:

I’m always leary of questioning Dr. No, but is this a classic case of the model underestimating the depth of cold/CAD airmass at this range, or is that just my inner weenie talking? 

gotta be careful to not let your weenie out.

a little better than i first thought for CLT on the 12z gfs.  

soundings for clt aren't good verbatim.  a lot of sleet and frz rain with plain cold rain to start.

31 and sleet for clt in the middle of the storm.

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

If it verifies. It could end up easily putting me in the sanitarium lol. I miss snow already, and in VT they have had an epic November. I am just happy I was there for the Pi Day event in 2017 with my first ever 30 incher:
 

good lord, i cannot imagine.  

4 minutes ago, eyewall said:

It is far from the perfect track for the RDU area on the overnight Euro, but there would be at least a backside deform band for a couple of hours and a quick couple of inches in that scenario I would think. Otherwise it would be mostly rain/mixed-p . Obviously that will shift again and it is a single op run so we shall see. We are far from full consensus at this time.

what a nice storm to welcome you back to the SE snow reality.  hoping for the best but expecting the worst.

1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

Lmao. Well so far this season CAD was grossly underestimated in the mid November storm so that may be something to watch.

that is one thing that gives me a little hope, if we can get cad to over perform we will be in really good shape as qpf doesn't look to be an issue at all.

1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

Congrats guys. Looking like a generational event is on deck down there. Then again in the off chance the Canadian is right I'm a happy camper. Definitely looking like it will stay suppressed at this stage.

if we got even half the fantasy storms models showed 150hrs out for our area we'd have snowfall totals similar to buffalo.  we will likely find a way to screw it up.

4 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

The strength of the CAD / supporting high is crucial. Hopefully there is more transition zones. When this occurs our area does well with wintery precip. If there is a sharp snow/rain line somebody in our area (to Charlotte to the SC up state) is going to be unhappy. I still think the December 2009 storm is a possibility. Miller A with good snow totals in the western piedmont but a messy snow to rain event for RDU. 

agree.  we have seen so many times the past few years to take these clown maps with a grain of salt.  expect mainly sleet and rain and then any snow you get will be a bonus. i don't care if every ensemble shows 12"+ (see RDU in Jan 2017), I won't expect a thing until snow is actually falling and accumulating.  nam should be able to sniff out the transition zones and problem areas around 36-48hrs out.

lp location is nearly identical to 18z, hp just not cutting it

much warmer at 144, nice cold rain for much of nc.

icy cad storm.

hello!

clipper still looking healthy on the 12z gfs.

Just now, Queencitywx said:

I was thinking we'd see a colder solution with the low being over LA this run. We'll see, I guess. 

really not too far off from a decent storm, and not far off from nada.  at least we have something to watch. and i tihnk the small event next weds needs to be watched too.  those usually can catch us by surprise.

really gets cranking on the back half, plenty of time to go still.

clipper on the 5th with a shot at snow showers for central nc.  past few gfs runs have beefed up qpf for it.

33 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

CLT is an enigma that seems to take even more things going “just”right.  We are either just a few miles too SE to be cold enough to get a winter storm.  Or, we are just too far NW to get in on the main precip when we have the cold. 

I don’t have the data to verify but I’d wager that places like Shelby which is barely west from here gets more wintery  precip than us.  Or at least more storms where they get wintery precip.  

I myself am only about 15 miles (by car) from downtown CLT and there have been multiple times when CLT gets more than us.  Being SE has helped us a few times with coastal bombs as well though.  In general its normally either I-85 or I-77 though that is the dividing line and it’s usually a VERY sharp fall off.  And those merge in CLT.  Same happens with many CAD events.  

I’ve seen it snowing on upper levels of high rises but be raining at the ground level because the cold air is that close.  Very frustrating at times.

yep you just have to stay grounded in reality and climo and ignore the models even when they all show a big dog.

26 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

Sun sngle, ground temp, planetary alignment.  Pick your poison lol.  The cliff will never be too high to jump from!  Not referring to you.

models not showing the warm nose as the low bombs offshore until the NAM shows 8" of snow change to 3" of sleet and rain 36hrs out while we argue that the NAM is trash and to trust the gfs/euro ensembles showing a foot of powder....

all hypothetical of course.