DopplerWx

also this should scare you if you have visions of clown maps dancing in your head, models may be underdoing the warm nose (imagine that)

 

warm nose right now looks very similar to the hires nam and hrrr from last night. when you have both of them showing the snow line above you it is usually the kiss of death. 

i understand being wary of the hrrr but to think it is going to be THIS off? not likely.  this is one of those warning shots the day before a storm that you ignore at your own peril.

1 minute ago, burrel2 said:

Hrrr has a warm bias. Check out it's 7am run today for the San Antonio area... Notice no hint of snow falling anywhere in that region.

 

the HP is sitting in the midwest, much different than here. hrrr does not have a warm bias that i have seen, has nailed MANY rain/snow lines over the past few winters.

1 minute ago, NCSNOW said:

It's the hrrr v/s every other shortrange model . Cage match, will we have a new champion and unseat the undisput ed short range model champion of the world "per pack"? 

Stay Tuned

**every other short range model's snow maps with 10:1 ratios 

hrrr tomorrow afternoon, no snow to be found in ga, sc or much of nc. 

newest hrrr has a steady cold rain tomorrow for all of sc and nc outside of the mountains at noon.

remember when the hrrr was showing it ripping fatties tomorrow morning in nc? here's the latest run.

hires nam showing the snow line not as far south and east as the 12km nam, FYI.

1 minute ago, Poimen said:

The 18Z GFS showed rain tomorrow with an expanding precip shield to the NW, then gradually changing to snow from west to east overnight and Saturday. That's probably the best scenario at this point. I wouldn't expect much in the way of snow tomorrow in NC outside of the mountains. 

agreed. as the low cranks offshore the precip should end as light snow showers for most. that is a good start to winter in my book.

you can't be too surprised if it does trend warmer and most see cold rain, the setup was marginal at best for nc, many just got overexcited by 10:1 ratio snow maps.

5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Thats a valid point, but curious as to why it's doing that.

because we are getting closer to the event and we are at the max range of the hrrr. if it keeps trending warmer everyone hoping for the clown maps to verify better temper their expectations quickly. have seen this song and dance many times.

past 2 hrrr runs have really warmed for much of nc for tomorrow. 

21z run:

23z run:

hrrr was pretty accurate last jan but the snow line ended up ~50miles or so north of where it was forecasted, had me safely in the snow and ended up with rain and sleet. just a forewarning.

gfs even warmer thru 36, precip a bit west

brutal warm nose on the hi-res nam. upstate sc looks like snow initially with the heavier rates but quickly goes back to rain. clt east looks like all rain.

this will be killer for snow chances just like last year, another snowstorm a couple thousand feet up. going to be very difficult to overcome a 3c warm nose.

1 minute ago, ajr said:

I just don’t see how Raleigh’s temp profile supports anything the models are spitting out 

going to have wet grass and wet roads, little to nothing will stick outside of car tops and elevated surfaces. model sees .2" qpf falling as snow and paints it on a clown map that people get excited about when .18" of that qpf will melt as soon as it makes contact.

3k nam has pretty much all rain for clt to rdu east. warm nose rears its head.  

theres a good look at the power of the warm nose at 51hr.

Just now, No snow for you said:

It will be stronger? It always is. 

yep, we all tried to ignore it 36-48hrs out last jan and it ended up being even stronger than modeled.

anyone hoping the warm nose isnt as strong as modeled on the hi-res nam is going to be very dissapointed.

more precip but warmer at 78.  a cold rain for most in nc.

5 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

You remember what a warm nose did to our storm back in January?  (that was way less marginal looking than this one)

I think some wet snow is possible for the climatologically favored areas in the NW (of raleigh), but anything else is a cold rain with some flakes mixed in at times.

yep. every ensemble for the gfs and euro were showing 10"+ the morning of the storm and we got a cold rain and some sleet because of the warm nose.  i really don't see any reason to expect more than some token flakes rdu north with this one.

clipper with some light snow sunday morn