DopplerWx

Just now, griteater said:

source for early FV3?

TT fv3 sim radar

fv3 a bit south with our lp out to 66.

going ahead and making my reservation for sunday in the sanitarium.  

Just now, ryan1234 said:

Having that transition line right there at SC Highway 9 is still a bit worrisome. I'd like to see it 50 miles south of there, at least for the CLT metro.  

hoping we can get it to keep trending cooler over the next 3 days.

3 minutes ago, WxKnurd said:

Phil’s Coefficient radarscope will be getting a workout by me for this one, like always these last few years.

now that is the kiss of death, will never forget when he popped in the jan 2017 thread and fired the warning shot.

2 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Take your chances with that. I think you still end up with a sleet/snow profile...what no one wants is ZR. If that warm nose sets up shop (and it almost always does) that will not be good for CLT. 

agree but soundings have improved over the past 6 runs or so. still expecting the nam to show that warm nose about 36hrs out once we are all nice and excited.

backside is juicy too, man if these soundings verified for kclt, what a monster storm it would be.

charlotte sounding at 96 w/ heavy precip.  we like to live dangerously. 

at 96, oh mama. beautiful look.

dps a bit better and the snow line is maybe a tick south.

icon still showing initial snow in clt thru sunday morning before changing to rain for areas even to asheville.

4 minutes ago, burgertime said:

I think this could be a great analog. Could see getting a good storm with layers...don't think CLT gets a foot but I could def see 6 inches with an inch of sleet and some frozen rain/drizzle thrown in at the end....and then a bump of snow again at the end. 

yea looking at soundings on the 6z gfs clt looks all snow thru 96 then a warm nose pops up at 102 turning us to sleet.  encouraging that the warmer gfs shows a nice front end thumping.  if we can get the nam thermals to verify we would be in even better shape.  

6z gfs has clt right on the rain snow line and in turn spit out these ridiculous numbers. i don't buy it though, i think we see a lot more sleet and a lot more rain than snow.

and then the low jumps over myrtle and the obx and areas outside the mtns go to rain

yea sounding looks much better at kclt this run. all snow thru 96.

looks like a snow sounding thru 102 at clt. maybe a bit colder this run?

1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Faster and further north

its identical at 84.

3 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

I'm not concerned. The Euro isn't showing a lee-side warm bubble from northwest flow over the mountains, as that's not where our cold air is coming from. 925mb temps are actually at their coldest on an axis through this area for our storm. (Thanks to CAD).  It's a big reason we wind up getting mostly sleet in freezing rain events while places around us get more freezing rain.

I think the euro snow map has a bubble over Oconee county simply b/c it's showing surface temps at 33 degree's there for 5 or 6 hours while surrounding area's are 32/31.  I've seen this before in CAD set ups, especially as the CAD is first coming in, it's gets to places like anderson/hartwell a little faster than that small area over Oconee, but it's nothing to worry about right now. It will wind up being largely over-done, imo, (assuming the general depiction is right).

However, it is yet another reason why that small geographic area is literally the worst place you can live for winter weather.

if the gfs is correct w/ the lp location then the warm nose would def mess with you guys. sounding in the midst of the precip shows it.

Just now, Snow88 said:

This is a rare event for the south.

Are all of you prepared for a big snow event ?

yep, i have my umbrella ready for the rain and a streetlight ready to squint into looking for the stray snowflake that mixes in.

how are temps for clt on the euro? initial start as snow before a changeover to rain?

Just now, griteater said:

It's kind of weird, the system is so slow moving that it is thumping heavy front end gulf precip into the cold-ish air....heavy rising motion on the NW side of the Miller A...and by the time the 850 low approaches and it warms, it has snowed a lot

at 120 with good precip our sounding is razor thin, maybe all snow but likely some sleet mixing. but if we are talking razor thin margins this far out i know which way it will likely trend.

2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

There's probably already half a foot of snow on the ground, at least, before this considers changing over IMBY. 

yea thru 126 you're soundings look all snow pretty comfortably.

absolutely massive warm nose at 126 for kclt.  

charlotte to raleigh, toss in the towel.  not sure we even see snowflakes at this point.  writing is on the wall.

yea this isnt good for clt to rdu. lp inland and this will be a cold rain.