Bubbler86

Two days ago I was enthusiastic but now its down to pop up hopes it appears. So not a punt but it appears not everyone gets rain today and looking forward is ugly. Yesterday the Euro had you getting an 1" of rain in the next 24 hours. Not it has that or less in the next 240 hours. Even if we get some today its not looking great through much of July. We are left with hopes that the ridge is being depicted a bit too far west and we get into the return flow that Loseto mentioned. Better chance for people north of us sort of the way the radar looks this Am with the N LSV getting rain.

Was hoping the storm would interact with the front (it still may) to give us "Non Elsa tropical love". But some depictions on the models are subsidence hell then bone dry for days. The GFS depicts some people not getting any rain through July 21.

Eeesh. D word is coming out again soon.

Severe thunderstorm warning about 50 miles from the burg.

Going to need it if tomorrow falls through.

GFS has been consistently showing a big rain this evening over S/W LSV and it got it right though it ended up a bit more north over Cumberland County or the one in State College now.

Just noticed the new Nam keeps the core at the shore. No for Philly, BWI or DCA. Trends are not great for tomorrow. Worlds apart from the 12Z CMC which gave Lanco a full on drilling.

Their lows are so low we may see some ice issues.

Hopefully most score tomorrow and today a few get lucky.

Hopefully it never gets to the point where people can sue weather people for lost monies.

There are lots of people who profess to knowing it all. Weather forecasting gets a bad rap.

@Cashtown_Coop, one of us may score this afternoon.

It used to be that knowing what the GFS and Euro were made us weirdo's but thanks to the internet and Weather Channel we now need to say things like SST, NAO, Gorilla in the Gulf or Greenland Block to make the club.

Ok, I will put any potential grumblings about pillow to bed.

Imagine if a real circulation made it up here. It would entrain the smoke and start a whirling dervish wildfire smoke.

Looks like Pillow is trying to nudge in on trainings gig.

Certainly not a once in a lifetime thing then. I never noticed it snowing up there in July but some summers I am not watching as much as this summer. A weeks worth of sweet, sweet heat relief starting tomorrow. (Except on the Euro)

It's running up the score on the LR Pattern and placement recognition. Its believe it also snowed in Canada like predicted. Some temps have been too cool in the LR like usual.

Speaking of tracks, the GFS from last week nailed the general location of the storm this AM. Was too deep in intensity and was a little slow. Check out the GFS from 7 days ago. Americans can take a victory lap on this one.

70 here this AM. Looking at the Am models I feel we will need a juiced atmosphere over here to take advantage of Elsa's moisture in advance of the actual low. The core of the storm seems it is going too far east and being on the outside of, once up to this latitude, is going to be high and dry. Quick cut off.

Just so we get paid back in October with below norms.

The HRRR wants to give Tampa a reprieve.

Oh, allegiant. Well you never know with them but doing Elsa has anything to do with it.

Does your flight have any connections or originations in NC? Not sure there is too much in the way of delays up the east coast. This thing is not even going to go below 1000MB

I am worried about that. Had not checked tide info yet.