Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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@MrFreeze6298, everything going ok? You are missing out on our first frost, freeze and end of growing season, all in one week.
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I am never comfortable making this assumption without getting a Coffin Rock ob.
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Indian Summer is blunted (though next weekend is pretty toasty) on the CMC this AM. Maybe a tad blunted on the GFS but still there. Euro is all ahead for heat.
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You may make a run for 19 tomorrow AM. 26 here this AM. Shooting for 22 tomorrow.
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CMC is still forecasting Upper teens and low 20's in the LSV for the next 4 mornings (mid and upper 20's tomorrow actually). Before we just ignore it, the GFS and Nam were both too warm this Am for many locales. Many dropped into the mid 20's. The CMC nailed the temps today.
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Certainly not on the EC. There is no snow for anyone near us with that low basically dying and reforming to our North. Whatever front that passes over us is more in the theme of a moderate air mass.
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I mentioned delay in another post and that was in reference to a real cold front vs a moderate change. Glad I did not cover up the A/C in case this plays out.
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The EC depiction would greatly delay the cold front as well with the storm stuck west of us so long.
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It will be downright tropical (like it could be in Dec, Jan or Feb even) if you have a 987 spinning out in Iowa. Seems the storm is hitting a block as it retrogrades south then reforms over the Upper Lakes.
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Yea, I see that now. Just a tip of it. This run up into Lake Erie with 60's. Much stronger, closer, wound up Mid-West SLP is to blame.
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Yea, especially out your way. Could be some southwest PA 70's verbatim.
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Our color here is wood. The tropical storm winds last week took many of the colorful leaves away.
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EC for Wednesday. This will be low 70's at MDT if clouds do not save the day. The record for Nov 10th is 76 in...drumroll.....2020. Of course the EC overdoes it sometimes so a caveat with that.
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For MDT, the 12Z GFS sort of drove its tent stakes deep but did concede a bit on main frontal passage over to Sat AM instead of Friday. Before that it has 3 days with highs in the low to mid 60's and one day in the upper 60's....extrapolating out the 18Z temps. Cooler air not far away so Indian Summer is on the map but could be squashed.
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No doubt. I am just not a big ensemble fan. It just adds another "entity" into the convo. It is a blend of all of the different versions of that model. Great for trend watching though. But not so great for looking at temps in a specific locale...in my opinion. But the swings are definitely more subtle vs. Op's.
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The CMC is technically not showing it at 240 hours now that I look so I guess Sunday there.
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Its Friday on the GFS and later Sat on the CMC and Euro. Totally different evolutions from the two camps.
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I looked at every op (Icon 2 days, it did not go to the weekend, GFS, Euro and CMC) and each has 3 days of 60 and above at MDT next week though how they get there is a bit different in that the CMC and Euro sink the warm front south on Thursday only to lift it back up for part of the weekend and Friday while the GFS pushes primary front through much faster.
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Yea, Thursday is the big question mark right now. But as Tim mentioned, the warmth could come right back again for Fri and Sat before the real cold front comes through. Going to be an interesting temp week. A few of the later week days have records in the low 70's...may have to keep an eye on that.
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Just a couple of Neanderthals? LOL
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I will go out on the limb and try to interpret what the models are suggesting. MDT hits 65 at least twice next week. Forecast is locked in (not locked in to be right just locked in).
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So does the CMC but then Sat both CMC and Euro tout higher temps again before the next front so its along the lines of your other post...a bit up and down...where as the GFS is 3 straight days of warm.
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I totally understand the March thing. Not only dealing with the longer "daytime" in March but also the warm mongers on parade, giddy with enthusiasm that spring is near, are down talking the snow as well. Ha. Plus in Dec we have the holiday's in front of us when in March we have summer in front of us.
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Unfortunately for cold mongers, MDT is in the Mid 60's around late lunch time 3 days on the GFS. All are potential 70 days verbatim. CMC as well though different days.
