Bubbler86

We did have one earlier this season. Jan 6th maybe?

MDT's low so far today has been 43 or 44 so they need to get down to 39 by midnight to avoid a tie or break the Max Min record for February 11th. 3K has them making it to 38 but HRRR and RGEM do not and suggest a record is made.

Another steamy Feb morning...48 degrees. Feels like summer to be honest.

How much for sayre?

He only has so much budget to pay the kid to draw it.

The WB and Pivotal maps are showing a fairly large difference on the latest Nam. 1-3" depending on location. That darkish red dot in N Central is 15" on Pivotal but not 16+.

The watch "AFD" itself suggests their reason for issue it but it also does not match his zone forecast. It does better match the zone for Nothern Dauphin. Just not sure they split counties for watches. The zone for southern Dauphin only has 2-4". PAZ025>028-034-056-057-059-111415- /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0003.240213T0400Z-240213T1800Z/ Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon- Including the cities of Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Bedford, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, and Lebanon 246 PM EST Sat Feb 10 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

For a watch I guess they could issue it for any reason....if he had a warning for 2-5" it would not be what I thought they usually do. I once read that they now use the midpoint of ranges to trigger the warning so I guess 4-6 could trigger it also. This is all Google info so maybe an NWS savvy met has exact thoughts.

I think they would usually not issue a Warning unless the first number is 5. So 5-7, 5-10, etc. It is a watch and not a warning so really just a heads up more than a forecast.

I suspect they do not want to split counties. The last I looked at the Harrisburg zone it said 2-5" which is not WSW worthy.

18Z GFS. WSW merited for much of PA on this map.

I would be super surprised to see us get 2-4" of rain period.... not surprised if we get little to no snow. The ground around here is more saturated than normal, despite the summer drought, so that much rain is a worry for streams. Saw several farm fields today with water puddled in low areas.

They had a choice of shady maple or snowy maple and went with shady because they at least get 4-5 months out of the name instead of a couple weeks.

Not at all saying this for controversy but the RGEM depiction would call for flood watches. 2-4" for much of the LSV (mostly rain)

Fill up for a long night waiting for the Euro. Have fun.

You had her drive so you could PBP 18Z models on your 13" iPad. Makes sense!

It probably hit 70 in some spots but just remembered when I was passing places. It is still 67 just west of me on WU. High in Rou was 64.

Car therm obs today (MDT only made mid 50's) Fairfield-67 Cashtown Inn-64 Chambersburg-65 Taneytown MD-69 Base at Ski Liberty-66

As blizz would say, see you at 18z. Lol

You and others were adamant at times that the pattern change was mid-month, not now. When the V-Day threat looked lost the mantra was "well the pattern change is not happening until the 15th, we all need to be patient" so kicking the can forward and saying the pattern already changed seems off a bit. Definitely agree with your highlighted comment.

Back when these types of forums covered larger areas, there was a lot of angst since what is good for one is not for the other. People in NYC and NE would hate on MA people when cheering on a storm that missed NYC to the south. Since all areas of the East US were posting in the same thread it was tough to not have people get mad. Glad you guys do not hate when we root for a situation that may leave you dry.

I guess the reason I said that is if we want to believe/hope for the EPS mean to be reality, would you not have to also take what is shows to the south?

More tracking coming hopefully...just not a slam dunk, IMO.

Just cannot believe that BWI gets 2" with the temps. Would really take a rapid deepening once to the SE. Snow on the way out.

We agree on this point not just for Joe B, but the general way LR forecasts are conceived sometimes. It is not the forecasting of events such as NAO and MJO positions, it is 1) Assuming the models are right which I think is crazy 2) Assuming what will happen based on previous events even if the models nail future indices. Great to talk about and theorize, not so great to make statements that things WILL happen. Not pointed at anyone (except when someone replies to me and acts like I am wrong because the 15-day ensembles said so) vs. a opine on why we get disappointments sometimes. Edit-Man, the MA panic room is losing it.