Bubbler86

Definitely some location dependent. I lived in Ocala and Bradenton a combined 15 years and never had a wind gust over 60 except in Irma. Lots of 50's with T-Storms. Here in far southern PA I have had 3 gusts over 70 and dozens over 60 in the last 4 years but its the constant wind that is the big difference. I played a lot of tennis in Florida and except rare occasions, the wind was not an issue. Up here it is a constant issue as it is rare we go a week without winds in the 30's. I would go as far to say that we have 2-3X the amount of windy days here than I did in Bradenton or Ocala. Best of luck down there. I can tell you form my Irma experience that the effects on the East Coast from Miami to Jax were far understated as to what really played out. Tens of thousands of people on the east coast were without power for weeks.

Euro has the big high shunt Ian to the west and quickens the speed of rain into Southern PA starting early Saturday. The SLP is over KY Sunday afternoon. The low actually never gets sent East and dissipates/retrogrades south through early next week before making a run north again.

Have not seen that much of a stall yet but definitely not an early Saturday rainer here anymore. More Sun-Tue.

The 12Z 'Cane models are driving the storm a bit farther north due to the delay in it gaining latitude...and slightly less effects from the High. Still showing a right turn eventually though.

Wow, I have no trips planned. Not living my life right I guess. LOL. Good thing you are not going to Sanibel late this Sept!

There are evacuating Sanibel and Captiva now. @Itstrainingtime, when were you going down there? Maybe next year?

Chilly 45 start

Great info such as My uncle visited Sarasota in 1974 and was there for some thunderstorms so this is going to be a nightmare....or, I once flew into PIE and I saw some canals that looked suspicious so I am thinking people on the east coast are in trouble.

Yep

'Cane thread challenging a MA winter storm PBP where it comes to bad analysis.

Part of the current AFD for Bradenton/just south of St Pete. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic - Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or months. - Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and roadway signs blown over. - Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Widespread power and communications outages. * STORM SURGE - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 7-10 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas - Window of concern: Begins early Wednesday morning

Do your friends call you Big Daddy when you gamble huge like that. LOL.

I read in the 'Cane thread that some counties from Sarasota north will be going deep into the zones for mandatory evacs. Zone C. (Plus all trailers/mobile homes.)

If Manatee goes to Zone C that is probably a jump up from Irma as I am not sure B was ever mandatory there in 2017.

Definitely something some people can compulsively turn into a life changer to the negative side. The odds are so bad that many people call it a "person who is bad at math" or "person that does not have much money" tax.

I do not gamble much but a case can be made for putting the system on autopilot and buying a ticket or two each drawing...would not cost much weekly.

www.pailottery.com. If you are really into playing you get a Double bonus with your first deposit up to $500 but you bet your bonus and deposit 10X within 30 days to keep any winnings left over.

You can do that online now.

Yea, dry air ready to ruin someone's drought smash. My old place in Bradenton just received Evac orders. When I was there in 2017 we made a 3AM drive up to Ocala, Fl to get out of Irma's way.

I am not sure any of the progs get rain into the Northeast before later Saturday. GFS is a nice Sun-Tue LSV Soaker but gets shunted mostly south of NYC.

Hour later nooners....65, cloudy and windier than a witches baked bean convention.

Not at all. Not to disagree with neff, but outside the 'Cane chances, Florida weather is boring to me. Sure, it storms a lot more but it is 95 and humid before the storm and 85 and humid afterwards. Great weather to be outside Dec-March.

Except the wind seems much worse in PA (15 years in Florida myself)

Yea, defintely something to watch.

We got zip from this line as well. Waiting for Ian to get us some real rain over here.