Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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...and self insure or pay a couple grand per month in insurance.
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Just looked at last 5 hours of radar. Some nice ridge enhancement north of Harrisburg and a large area of rain plus moved through central lanco.
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I had not looked all afternoon. I hope we get enough rain to feed the seeds.
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Not looking at models right now but remembering 12z the real rain was not there until 2-10am.
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The nam scored the victory today. Never hurts to have the nam be the king.
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Ian is here. Light Ian rain at the M/D line. Expecting 2-3" here.
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That and zones where there is no insurance and no government help. If you live here, you are 100% self insurance.
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Bolded made me chuckle on a late Friday.
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If not on the heels of Ian in Florida, this would be a big story.
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Yea, was just not sure if they were already in the water. Maybe there was a way down without getting pummeled by the rocks. I heard a cop call for rescue.
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Did those people tumble over the rocks into the water or did the gate stop all the people being pushed?
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Euro trends toward the higher end of the 2" with some over. Lots of light rain all weekend into Tue from the coastal front just to our east.
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Using mb to gauge it is now a low end Cat 2. I agree that officially it will not be called that but it is a mid to high end Cat 1 by any gauge.
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977 so now a Cat 2 mb gauge wise. That was called impossible yesterday.
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First potential LSV freeze next weekend on the CMC and GFS but before that, 1 or 2 days in the 70's and an outside shot at 80 for the HIA....depending on high placement to the North. Dry after this weekend/early next week. The Maytown electric company likes the 70's.
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Most mb --> Cat conversion charts I have seen have Ian being 1mb away from being a Cat 2. Understand it is not that simple since Winds are used as the primary determiner but do not think this is a minimal Cat 1 either.
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I think the storm is coming further north on its initial landfall so any solutions that said no rain seem out the door. The GFS was basically that just a day or so ago. I would not forecast 2-4" either. 1-2" seems safe for a forecast. The key with the GFS is the additional rain early next week. Now may be a good time to do over seeding of grass if being done this fall.
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The once dry GFS is now probably the wettest of the more popular models as it continues to intensify and move Ian further North before landfall. In additional it now throws back more moisture from any costal development late weekend/early next week. I say this realizing that the Florida Gov just went on National TV and used the GFS as an example of why people did not evacuate.
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Also moved the center line of the cone north closer to myrtle.
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Yea, leaving Tampa to go some place where the storm will be passing first makes little sense. 2017 Irma is the same case. Tampa was in the cross hairs and it turned in well to the south with much less warning than this one.
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It was a two part interview with Jim Cantore....not sure if it is online anywhere. Not sure criticizing the GFS is the right word vs. Using it as an excuse as to why people in SW Florida did not evacuate.
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I thought it interesting that he insinuated the public was mislead by the GFS. Just mentioning a specific model in a interview like that is a surprise. I thought he did a good job in the interview as an overall view on it.
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Not political just commenting on a person of status, the Gov of Florida just did an interview on TWC and when talking about why people may not have evacuated he pointed out the GFS showing the storm hitting the Panhandle as one reason.
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There have been a few runs/progs that showed a southern NC landfall.
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@paweather, a bit late notice for gift shopping wouldn't you say? Just the same I wrapped up something for you that I saw on the 12Z GFS. Box is see through on the one side.
