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Bubbler86

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Everything posted by Bubbler86

  1. Bubbler86
    Not great spacing IMO, that was what I did not like about that map above with two vorts so close. Low is sitting off SC so lets see what it does but no March '93 event for the whole east coast.
  2. Bubbler86
    Two Vorts in this position not something you see every day in the winter season. ITT1 stalled out in the Atlantic. Will someone say Fujiwara today?
  3. Bubbler86
    Looks like it missed the bus with no phase/capture/tuck/NE slamma.
  4. Bubbler86
    Assuming no coastal influence for the LSV from ITT1.
  5. Bubbler86
    My Euro is stuck at 114 but yea the trough looks to be negative at that point albeit further north than we want like you said.
  6. Bubbler86
    500 is cut off and much farther south than 0Z.
  7. Bubbler86
    Early Saturday AM a line of WAA snow envelops the LSV on the 12Z EURO.
  8. Bubbler86
    Definitely suggests potential for some WAA possibilities.
  9. Bubbler86
    The stalling low has been shown on and off by a lot of models over the last few days. Talk about a possible bonanza win. Other than joking, how often has the word tuck been said this year? This truly is one of those situations where we are in the game.
  10. Bubbler86
    Honestly, having the EC side with snow right now is probably a bad sign. Especially the last 1-2 months. Not sure why other than to say we are in a pattern that it does not excel.
  11. Bubbler86
    That was before Brexit.
  12. Bubbler86
    EC trended North with the main band of snow tonight though it was seemingly not as much about vort position as it was ground temps and precip intensity as there is mixed precip further down in the central and southern LSV even poking into MD. Does have several LSV 1" lolipops.
  13. Bubbler86
    Late nooners, very sunny 45 and breezy with 15-20MPH frequent sustained. A bit chilly.
  14. Bubbler86
    We are the donut hole of the good pattern. Just a 12Z comment not a prediction or way to try and suggest anything.
  15. Bubbler86
    Here is the GFS run in a nutshell regardless of improvements from earlier.
  16. Bubbler86
    Yep, they are really close together. To hope for two potential phases in that short of time is not likely so they both go other places than we want.
  17. Bubbler86
    ITT2 has no real way to climb later in the GFS run. It really tries after it goes over Florida and sits off the SE coast for several panels. Mixed news for the spring flingers as the suppression is generally caused by a cold dome of high pressure/quite broad trough in the NE corner of the US. The trough is initially positively tilted which is not good for big storm chances of course. By the time it goes neutral it is to our east.
  18. Bubbler86
    Yea, I agree improvements on both. The resulting low on this run of the GFS mauls Southern NE as it stalls/tucks. I think we need this displaced even further south for a big snow here...and to transfer earlier.
  19. Bubbler86
    12Z GFS spreads moderate snow through much of PA Friday afternoon into the evening. Much of the LSV and SE a bit warm and a mix or rain. Primary makes it too far North and West to hope for a big coastal development scenario for us with ITT1 as the low spins up off thr NJ coast. CMC was better than 0Z but both ITT1 and ITT2 start to spin up too far to our east as in both cases.
  20. Bubbler86
    12Z Icon forms a low (ITT1) off the Southern VA/ N NC coast this weekend but snow is confined to far East PA where the rates allow overcoming of warm boundary layers. Just read a tweet from JB who said this will/could be the 3rd coldest March ever and the coldest since 1960.
  21. Bubbler86
    3K Nam now brings accumulating snow into Lanco over the next 24 hours...for the MJS car topper request this AM. FV3, HRRR and 3K all on board for Lanco to see something. Rgem not so much. The main band on the 3K is farther north than the other Meso's I looked at. This wave was a N PA mauler late week which folded to NY only system only to come back and now POTENTIALLY get snow into SE PA.
  22. Bubbler86
    12Z HRRR Kuch for tonight and daytime tomorrow..like yesterday, this is in two waves though wave 2 fizzles while entering the LSV.
  23. Bubbler86
    The WWWD.
  24. Bubbler86
  25. Bubbler86
    Frosty 25 this AM.
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