Bubbler86

Jan 1996 for me. I lived in a row home in Philly, with a one way street and cars parked on both sides, and the whole neighborhood had to pitch in and dig out the 30" from the road/block as there was never going to be a plow getting down that street. We had chairs in our parking spaces for a week or two afterwards.

Whopper of a deal if you have a delayed plane this holiday season...they must have read the GEFS and figured they were not going to lose much. https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/18/business/burger-king-delayed-flight-impossible-whopper/index.html

You are one of my favorite posters. If you leave the board is lessened.

The way I look at it, being near the boundary in January and maybe the first half of February means we are near the moisture. December and later Feb into March we need better patterns but just a standard SW/NE flow will do just fine mid winter as long as there is no SE Ridge.

Stand up the pins and lets have ourselves a bowling party.

There was a Bubbler storm last year as well. Will it become a yearly tradition? OP EC also brought back that light frozen "stuff" around the 26th albeit a little north of the LSV this time. Some flakes around then would at least add to the festive atmosphere a bit.

I just do not like that 240 hour map with another mid west blizzard but not worth breaking down a 240 map. Seems to be nudging 50 on Christmas Eve and Day as well. On the plus side people who are travelling in the East will not have to worry about snow delays. One thing is for sure...no one is going skating on their local pond any time soon.

I agree that there's no way it is a good look. Its just better than the rest of this year IMO. Two weeks ago we had great looks for the Dec 15th-Dec 30th time frame (estimating dates) and it ended up being a combo of false info and bad timing. All we need is a piece of energy to eject out of the far S/W and not be bullied to cut. The ridge can gently move it N/E without cutting.

Maybe I am reading the map wrong but isn't the surface boundary/freezing line close to our locale through much of the first 5 days of January? Its a smoothed out average but not sure I will call it a toaster bath. I see the 850's anomaly's are up but not nearly as much as what we have coming next week.

My spin is that it gives us a better chance at bowling ball type lows and we sneak in a frozen event with seasonal temps despite the Pacific spewing all over us. If one wants arctic air then the american suite has absolutely none after we are done here in the next couple days. The pole is completely shut off. But I think it could still get cold enough for snow in the right situation. I am frustrated with the constant train of waves going up to our west.

Also they like MJO talk. When things get down just post an MJO graphic and confidently talk about skipping phases. Also post tweets from HM with shovels in his hand.

There are actually several panels in a row, between Christmas and New Years, where there is not one negative temp reading anywhere within the confines of the CONUS map on TT which includes a good chunk of South and Central Canada. Zonal to an extreme for Northern half of the US. Still that is better to me than lows constantly carving out troughs just to our west. Neither solution is going to give is a Hec's but Zonal could be enough to get us into some snowier situations on day to day. But pattern wise its disappointing.

I was in Carlisle that Winter and the snow was a bit more powdery from my memory but we also lost power. That was one of the chillier nights of sleep I can remember. Got down into the low 40's in the house. Probably forced @Itstrainingtime to give the A/C a break as well.

How does dry and moderate/seasonal fit you with highs in the 40's and lows in the 20's and 30's? That looks like our fare for the holiday period. Probably at least one day of 50's and 60's for highs if I had to guess. But the zonal flow shown on the GFS, heading into the New Year, is one that could produce for our latitude. It lessens the chances of a cutting system.

And to close out this subject my post yesterday simply said after watching post after post, in early December on the MA LR thread, that we would be rockin' now the current look of the MR models was little to no winter weather (or even temps once this cold snap is up) through the first 1/3 of Winter which I consider to be Jan 1. It was a huge reversal from what was supposed to happen per lots of "experts". Now among several posts over there referencing later January a red tagger named Millville weather referenced the second half of winter, including alluding to saying "It really stings to say second half...". and I thought it ironic that people over there are almost doubling down on my simple comment of the next two weeks not looking good.

Actually pretty much every post I read last evening was punt and second week of Jan or later....if they made a reference to time. A red tagger went as far as to reference second half of the season repeatedly when talking about hopes.

Lots of punting on first down in the MA thread. Have to smirk that my comment of not seeing much through Jan 1 caused such disdain yesterday and now the theme is mid to late Jan over there.

That's terrible. Prayers to all those involved.

Almost looks like your truck window is open.

Has a 998 SLP off the Carolina's on Christmas Eve AM while the GFS has a High in a fairly similar spot. LOL.

Euro bowling ball 12/26 and 12/27, with some scattered frozen in PA, at least SOMETHING to watch...quick warm up afterwards as it drags a warm front our way but better than watching the parade of highs on the GFS.

Unless one is forecasting the common MR models are very wrong, not until the last day or two of the year from what I saw last night. Unfortunately it would be a warm system as of now.

****Banter Warning-Its been snowing over here for about 30 min...mood flakes. Banter Warning Off**** The somewhat rare snow squall warning is out for Lycoming County-Sullivan County-Tioga County-

I do not think this group needs a banter thread. The "banter" here keeps this group alive.

Not nervous here just pointing out that the models have punted the next two-three weeks as to showing a pattern conducive to winter weather here. Maybe the punt returner will fumble and we will get the ball back sooner than we think (re: the models are still wrong).