Bubbler86

I agree that there's no way it is a good look. Its just better than the rest of this year IMO. Two weeks ago we had great looks for the Dec 15th-Dec 30th time frame (estimating dates) and it ended up being a combo of false info and bad timing. All we need is a piece of energy to eject out of the far S/W and not be bullied to cut. The ridge can gently move it N/E without cutting.

Maybe I am reading the map wrong but isn't the surface boundary/freezing line close to our locale through much of the first 5 days of January? Its a smoothed out average but not sure I will call it a toaster bath. I see the 850's anomaly's are up but not nearly as much as what we have coming next week.

My spin is that it gives us a better chance at bowling ball type lows and we sneak in a frozen event with seasonal temps despite the Pacific spewing all over us. If one wants arctic air then the american suite has absolutely none after we are done here in the next couple days. The pole is completely shut off. But I think it could still get cold enough for snow in the right situation. I am frustrated with the constant train of waves going up to our west.

Also they like MJO talk. When things get down just post an MJO graphic and confidently talk about skipping phases. Also post tweets from HM with shovels in his hand.

There are actually several panels in a row, between Christmas and New Years, where there is not one negative temp reading anywhere within the confines of the CONUS map on TT which includes a good chunk of South and Central Canada. Zonal to an extreme for Northern half of the US. Still that is better to me than lows constantly carving out troughs just to our west. Neither solution is going to give is a Hec's but Zonal could be enough to get us into some snowier situations on day to day. But pattern wise its disappointing.

I was in Carlisle that Winter and the snow was a bit more powdery from my memory but we also lost power. That was one of the chillier nights of sleep I can remember. Got down into the low 40's in the house. Probably forced @Itstrainingtime to give the A/C a break as well.

How does dry and moderate/seasonal fit you with highs in the 40's and lows in the 20's and 30's? That looks like our fare for the holiday period. Probably at least one day of 50's and 60's for highs if I had to guess. But the zonal flow shown on the GFS, heading into the New Year, is one that could produce for our latitude. It lessens the chances of a cutting system.

And to close out this subject my post yesterday simply said after watching post after post, in early December on the MA LR thread, that we would be rockin' now the current look of the MR models was little to no winter weather (or even temps once this cold snap is up) through the first 1/3 of Winter which I consider to be Jan 1. It was a huge reversal from what was supposed to happen per lots of "experts". Now among several posts over there referencing later January a red tagger named Millville weather referenced the second half of winter, including alluding to saying "It really stings to say second half...". and I thought it ironic that people over there are almost doubling down on my simple comment of the next two weeks not looking good.

Actually pretty much every post I read last evening was punt and second week of Jan or later....if they made a reference to time. A red tagger went as far as to reference second half of the season repeatedly when talking about hopes.

Lots of punting on first down in the MA thread. Have to smirk that my comment of not seeing much through Jan 1 caused such disdain yesterday and now the theme is mid to late Jan over there.

That's terrible. Prayers to all those involved.

Almost looks like your truck window is open.

Has a 998 SLP off the Carolina's on Christmas Eve AM while the GFS has a High in a fairly similar spot. LOL.

Euro bowling ball 12/26 and 12/27, with some scattered frozen in PA, at least SOMETHING to watch...quick warm up afterwards as it drags a warm front our way but better than watching the parade of highs on the GFS.

Unless one is forecasting the common MR models are very wrong, not until the last day or two of the year from what I saw last night. Unfortunately it would be a warm system as of now.

****Banter Warning-Its been snowing over here for about 30 min...mood flakes. Banter Warning Off**** The somewhat rare snow squall warning is out for Lycoming County-Sullivan County-Tioga County-

I do not think this group needs a banter thread. The "banter" here keeps this group alive.

Not nervous here just pointing out that the models have punted the next two-three weeks as to showing a pattern conducive to winter weather here. Maybe the punt returner will fumble and we will get the ball back sooner than we think (re: the models are still wrong).

And just to clarify I am not at all saying "winter is over". LOL But I have seen a lot of "Winter has not even started" posts (mostly in MA) and I do not agree with that concept which would suggest that March 20th is a more wintry time than Dec 20th. It's just not a good sign when long rangers are talking about sustained cold finally getting here in mid January a week or two after posting how great the upcoming late December pattern was going to be.

The Sun Angle crew is already frothing up.

Just the first 1/3 snow wise. Bring on our upper 50's for Monday! At least Christmas might require a light wind breaker :-).

It's just not the same to me. In March the end is near and there is little chance of keeping a snow pack in March. I guess I get irritated when I see the posts, on Dec 17th, that winter has not started yet. They are just folks trying to make the bad news hurt less. LOL. It makes it worse that I read dozens of no nothing tweets, copied over to the MA thread, from amateur Met's who said we would be rockin' right now. I think some of the posts just from a couple weeks ago suggested we were heading into one of our best patterns in years.

We are pretty much punting the first 1/3 of winter if the long range models are correct so we better enjoy this cold weather the rest of the week. And please no winter has not started yet replies, LOL...winter is 17 days old and will be 1/3 over when the turn to 2020. December is more Winter than March.

We have decent returns over us right now with elevated surfaces freezing rain...no snow yet from the second round. 31.

I am sure glad this December is shaping up to be a great one per all the Twitter feeds people keep posting on the MD LR Thread! What's that? That was last week? Shorts on Christmas? Tweeting long scientific looking posts does not actually equate to snow? We will be rockin' in Mid-January?