Bubbler86

You too. Like others have said at least it will be good travel weather. Stressful dealing with snow and visiting family. I noticed the GFS was showing near 60 (LSV) a week from today but back to colder temps after that. This is still a lot better than last December and think we see a decent chance of something wintry Jan 1-5.

I went from Gettysburg to Fayetteville today and the scene starting around Adams County Winery up the hill and over to almost Caldeonia is simply amazing. The sun was out so the ice encased trees were shinning in full brilliance. Even more impressive was that the ice was not melting despite the sun. It was 39 before the climb and 31 as I passed along the top of the ridge. 8 degree drop in just 5-10 min.

Yea, I hardly hear anyone say "farm show weather" anymore. It would be good to get that train back on track.

Your beer should be stocked up regardless, right :-). I am going to make a prognostication that I have seen enough in the MR runs trying to make it snow here, Jan 1st-5th, that I think we all get accumulating snow then though if you look at the EC right now it is cutter, cutter, cutter. Other guidance has vacillated back and forth on trying to set up a more zonal flow or even east coast trough in that period and if that were to happen we are in line for something.

It was what I believe to be the biggest statewide snow producer in modern Florida history. 1977 may be up there as well. Regardless of my Florida connections I still find snow/frozen down there an interesting thought process especially accumulating like in 1993.

I live quite close to your climo being just over the state line, into PA, about two miles N/E of Ringold but about 200 feet down from you at 805 feet for my elevation. I can get to over 2000+ feet in just minutes though if I need to feel better. High Rock and Mount Quirauk are visible out my front door. Ha. You have a great point as it pertains to their ability to win in what I would call a more zonal regime because the southern 2/3 of that forum will very frequently end up on the wrong side of the boundary so my insistence that wringing hands over pattern is less worrisome up here. But I still believe the end result of said wringing is so often wrong, and quite frequently very wrong, that it is counter productive. If I were a teen and just getting interested in weather that MR/LR thread would push me away from it. And many people mix up the discussion between apparent and pattern weather talk. Outside the zonal/boundary chances people south of DC need a pressing then slightly retreating high to have a decent chance of a snow storm. That could happen in almost any pattern and is indeed more likely to have a positive effect in prime climo. If you want a KU then we need a block but otherwise I feel it all comes down to timing of the moisture interacting with said HP and luck is the final determiner. Pattern talk is anyone's right but I think it is weighed WAY too much as to what it is worth.

And just to finalize my thought I said that if the MR models are right the first third of meteorological winter is gone. I guess I did not need to post it but after listening to tons of "HM has his shovel" posts over the last two weeks I felt like a reality check was needed and to point out how wrong the twitter heads ended up being. I guess in the end that post was an anti long range forecasting post. Have a good Saturday.

I think some people use these boards as a bit of an emotional crutch. I am guilty of it on occasion when it shows snow and I know I have to travel. I will try to keep those posts to a minimum :-). I do like posts from @Voyager though as he is here looking for info to help him do his job and I do not see him being negative as opposed to wanting more info to help be safe.

I am not mad at you. I am still struggling to figure out how I am considered "warm" though. :-). I rarely will post a negative no snow for you in immediate response to someone who thinks otherwise but I sometimes post original content stating my opinion and I find blown warm forecasts or grossly warm by average periods interesting re: yesterday we got to 41 here which was a big bust on the high side. I love snow storms and I love sniffing out or discussing events where models are wrong...warm or cold. I am on the west side of the South Mountain Range so we will warm here faster than people just over the hill from me like @Cashtown_Coop. I actually keep his weather station link handy to compare. There are still ice covered tree limbs 2 miles to my east Blue Ridge Summit.

Hey Blizz, Just so you take into consideration that some of the meh posts are right. This week you contradicted a comment I made about posters in the MA that were saying things like Mid-Late January (Red Tagger Millville openly threw out the first half of winter whether you consider that Mid January or late January). If you are just looking for posts that are positive then you will never like me as I am trying to post and discuss the weather good or bad :-). In their defense I will say that people throwing out time periods a month past the time of the post are obviously going to be wrong most of the time but they are entitled to post as much as anyone else.

18Z GFS has the storm but is missing the CAD/High off the New England Coast.

And to add to your thought I think there are two lines of discussion. Apparent weather and patterns. My "not taken nicely" comment about the models punting the last two weeks of December was an apparent weather discussion and strictly based on specific model output while the people commenting we are done until Mid Jan, in the MA thread, were talking patterns. That is where I think people get lost too much...too many think bad pattern means we are screwed when in reality it snows in bad patterns just usually not a KU snow. However when you see all MR models showing almost no cold anywhere in the CONUS over a one to two week period you can usually extrapolate the apparent weather a bit.

I am sure there are posts somewhere saying the Atlantic is helping us make that snow.

I have to jump on a long call but will look forward to Daxx giving us details about the Dec 29th Euro Snowstorm!

And the "gang" in the MA LR thread continue to be too concerned with pattern change. I know it is what they do best and what they want to talk about but they have been wrong so often the last two seasons that I wonder when its going to click that many are here to track snow storms. We need two things for snow...moisture and temps that stay near or below freezing through most of the column. That's it. We can get snow with the MJO in phase 1000 or the TPV on the moon as long as we have a function to get moisture and the temps. We need the source region of disturbances to be one that is further S/W than most in recent years or a more zonal flow with a slight but mostly relaxed area of heights to our South East. There are other possibilities such as clippers and such but I believe the storms that really seem to give us decent, not KU but decent, snows are of these two sources. The term is Gorilla in the Gulf for a reason. LOL. Rant Off

Strike

@Wmsptwx's question rallied us to being one of the hottest boards on here despite no snow. Thanks! Interesting that we are already higher (35) than our forecast high temp today (34) and it just feels not cold out so I am thinking some may break into the 40's today.

After thinking about it I am going to change my memories first reaction and say mid 90's. It was not a snow that affected a large area of the Northeast. Most people south of the LSV, and maybe even Lancaster county, got rain but back in the Western LSV we had a surprise 4-6" but nothing like the 1982 storm you mentioned as temps were very marginal in the one I am thinking of.

You must not have been on the Usenet board at that point (2000) or you would have known better :-)

Those kind are always the best. The one I am remember from March late 80's/early 90's was forecast to be partly cloudy and maybe a chance of rain showers and the next morning I happened to flip on TWC (a big deal back then) and there was flashing and beeping for a WSW starting that morning. It may have even been late March approaching April. It was like winning a baseball game after being down 9-1 going into the 9th. Super Bonus snow. Though to me the biggest surprise snow storm of all time, and probably the biggest victory for this board's (Usenet, EUS, whatever) penchant to never say never, is January 2000. Watching that baby climb the East Coast and listening Live to NWS, Accuweather, etc...scramble to explain how we went from from no snow to 12-18" was like a sweet victory. I would argue that storm is the basis for this board today. If it had not happened we may not be here typing this.

Did not realize you were so young...you may be one of the younger posters here.

There was s surprise snow storm in March, very late 80's or early 90', where the forecast the night before was partly cloudy and I woke up to a Winter Storm Warning that next day for 4 or more inches. It was a slop fest of a storm but surprise WSW's are unheard of anymore.

10 day Euro has temps above freezing north of Edmonton, Canada. That would usually be a good look for us but....

Elliott Abrams was off his rocker raising totals every hour or two.