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Bubbler86

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  1. Bubbler86
    Years ago he had paid clients. Not sure about now.
  2. Bubbler86
    I happened to just listen to WGAL
  3. Bubbler86
    17.8", 1.4 qpf.
  4. Bubbler86
    For my clients I am going with 15-1 ratios so forecasting 12-18" still even for the Western LSV back into Fulton country where models are underplaying a bit but 15-1 ratios with the qpf fields I am seeing support it. Out your way definitely Kuch I would think. I cannot even imagine forecasting 30" for the Eastern LSV. Doubt any reputable place does that.
  5. Bubbler86
    Always seems to come out faster here https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sn10_acc&rh=2021013018&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
  6. Bubbler86
    GFS is a smaller mauling (than the Rgem) for the Eastern LSV
  7. Bubbler86
    Those 30-40" totals in the Eastern LSV would really make me smile for you guys over there. Makes the hobby worth it.
  8. Bubbler86
    RGEM is indeed still a mauling for S/E PA and S/C PA. Consistent with keep one area of pressure falls much longer into the event.
  9. Bubbler86
    I am FINALLY getting the boxed Christmas stuff out of the garage. I have a stray cat or two I will let in there if we end up getting a foot or more of snow. But yes beautiful day.
  10. Bubbler86
    LOL, that is a good idea. Keeps hopes alive that it can happen at any point.
  11. Bubbler86
    As long there is the chance of the double barreled structure I personally feel a bit worried especially for me way out here.
  12. Bubbler86
    That is 12Z
  13. Bubbler86
    I did not check others Ob's but over here it is a beautiful day pre storm. 42 and little to no wind. Needed a nice day like this. Edit-Boy the Nam is really going out on its own right now. I use it quite a bit but have to assume it is off course with putting the pressure falls way out into the Atlantic.
  14. Bubbler86
    Both 12 and 18Z Nam starting snow an hour or two earlier in the Western LSV. Add on the normal early start and we could have some 3-5AM start times over here.
  15. Bubbler86
    Rgem's area of lowest pressure basically sits off the S/E VA coast from hour 48 to 75 and deepens into the 980's. It makes its second transfer in 3 days to the NE coast at hour 75.
  16. Bubbler86
    Rgem rails on the same areas Nam screws. Meso mayhem.
  17. Bubbler86
    Definitely a good run for those north of route 30 in the eastern half of the state. Technically I just barely get Warning level snows here due to taint and dry slot but not worried about it.
  18. Bubbler86
    In my eyes the good news from the 12Z Nam is that it lessens the effects of the coastal low trying to reform/split off the New England Coastline, like the 0Z Nam showed last night, when it stalls off to our Southeast. That dry slot still punches part of the LSV in the gut.
  19. Bubbler86
    Rgem about doubles up qpf over nam for Southeast one third of the state
  20. Bubbler86
    Looks like the low does not "split" like on the Nam which would make that position an LSV special!
  21. Bubbler86
    It appears to be the same dual structure system we have been seeing for a few days now. One piece of it appears tucked while the other is east of Mass. Goes to explain the fairly pedestrian qpf totals for a SLP sitting just to our S/E.
  22. Bubbler86
    I am on my phone on TT so the 850's have not updated yet but the dry slot was a bit of a surprise.
  23. Bubbler86
    Not saying good or bad but very different. Actually a lot of big snows do mix the whole way up to CTP.
  24. Bubbler86
    Mix to CTP and dry slot. Hmm...
  25. Bubbler86
    Wow. Usually the big ones feature precip totals going up during the storm. Hard to go up from there.
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