Bubbler86

I think this board would be dead without model discussion/chasing. The science behind some of the more lengthy and complex posts concerning the not overly well understood (or accurate) forecasting of the NAO, AO, Nina's, etc. would not make for a high post count.

Not directed at you but I think big picture the constant "The Nam is out is wheel hour at 84 hours" type posts are just silly when every other models change drastically from run to run. No model is within its wheelhouse at any point from the way they have performed recently especially with QPF totals. The Nam has done a decent job at feature placement changes in the 84 hour time frame as opposed to the GFS. All of this is indeed model chasing though.

There will be an aleet coming out for sure.

Nam 12 continues to deemphasize the Saturday "Round 2/3" with just scattered mixed for most of PA.

You had me at love the nam.

Still snowing moderately here. Up to 4.25"

Craziest thing I saw on the models this AM is the CMC with an emergency level ice event a week from today for the LSV especially the southern part where it spits out. 5. to .75 all Frz. with ground temps in the mid 20's. The theme for now is less cold and more qpf next week. @losetoa6 would almost be in the epicenter.

Light to moderate snow still falling here. 3.75" on the non road surfaces. Roads only about 1-2".

Picked up 3/4" this hourish so over 2 here as well. Still 28 though.

Looking on tt is 3-4 " ending 8-9 am it seems. For Cumberland, Franklin, Adams.

Yea I was just using mods to make that statement though both the nam and it icon expand precip after midnight. Both have it snowing until almost lunch.

Isn't it still snowing mid morning tomorrow? Lol. I get tired thinking about it. My last all nighter was Jan 2000.

Laying on pavement over there?

Mod snow here. About 1.25". Streets mostly still wet.

Nam looks like a major qpf producer coming up Saturday

We are up to about 3/4" here but nada on hard surfaces. Still too warm. Grass that had starting to show is covered again though.

Light snow has commenced here.

I noticed on some of your posts that you work in PA from time to time as well so you are a line straddler like a few on here including myself.

My wife teaches there some times and its going to change that town (not for the better) with no local school.

Off topic but they are closing that elementary school there. Very sad for them. One of the best schools around this area. Kids will have to go to Emmittsburg or Thurmont.

Yes, I guess. And I was lazy not going back to prior AFD's but like you mentioned should I really have to do that? Ha.

Probably. I did not go in and compare. But surprised they did not pull it out considering it is about 24-30 hours away.

Interesting as their AFD from just minutes ago mentions it: The main uncertainty for the Commonwealth surrounds fast moving short-waves in the zonal flow pattern, each with the potential to bring a period of snow. The first of such systems still looks like it will impact at least southern portions of the region (mainly near and south of I-80) Thursday night. At this early vantage point, a general 1-3" snowfall looks like the most likely scenario. Another system appears to arrive over the weekend, with the best potential for snowfall accumulations late Saturday into early Sunday. There also remains at least some potential for a brief wintry mix in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. From this early vantage point, the early part of next week looks mainly dry, but continued cold.

CTP's AFD suggest they still think it snows Thursday night. No Warning for tonight though.

In some depictions, and I think Mag alluded to this, the second wave is really just a minoring out Shortwave that looks more like a disorganized group of showers. I know I am not feeling too down about missing it. Nam still shows a more organized area for the second wave though.