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Bubbler86

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  1. Bubbler86
    I actually think some of the NWS Met's relish winter storms and their long AFD's show it albeit a pain when they copy and paste the AFD from period to period. Lots of non forecasters read those AFD's. They are no longer the domain of weather heads. I usually provide them myself when sending forecasts,
  2. Bubbler86
    If this is their prediction map, and not hjgh end, I would be thrilled to get 2" of snow before any changeover Mon-Tue.
  3. Bubbler86
    I think if we agree that model prognostics have been terrible even just a day or two out we can still hope this week is not going to a total rain fest. If anything the Nam depiction of a fairly dry Tuesday is open for an option as well.
  4. Bubbler86
    The base of the trough is in SE Texas. Just a terrible look for us. I did not look at surface temps but I would think Spring like temps with this upper air pattern :-(
  5. Bubbler86
    Yea, I saw. It seems models are really having trouble with any specifics right now. As Itstraining pointed out its the trends that are negative but still fun tracking. Does not look all that good for snow right now though.
  6. Bubbler86
    There is no long range Nam. It's the Nam. It goes to 84 hours. The Nam at 12Z was a compromise between the all rain GFS and the Frz Euro so its soundings are just as valid as any other model. The question was why was the Euro not showing sleet and if anyone had more soundings from the Euro and I pointed out that the Nam was above freezing for just over 700 the whole way to the surface. That is a long way for sleet to survive so the Euro may have been similar.
  7. Bubbler86
    You must have been blocking all the model verification posts down on the MA board. 84 Nam is > 12 hour Euro right now. But the reason I posted it is I only had access to soundings GFS and Nam and I went with the better model.
  8. Bubbler86
    The 12Z NAM 84 Hr has it above freezing from 725 down to the the surface at MDT. That's a pretty thick no freeze zone. 23 degrees and light rain over here. Amazingly the roads are not too bad.
  9. Bubbler86
    We used to be on a well so we always had a ton of extra water because the well is off if the power goes off. We also buy ice and have a lot of those insulated foam like boxes that you might get from a home delivery beef place. We can then replicate our fridge for days using those...if the power is off.
  10. Bubbler86
    Not a quick fix but Generac House models are the bomb if you have a house though the making ends meet part probably precludes that. I know being in any kind of hospitality sucks right now. Sorry man.
  11. Bubbler86
    That would be interesting to see that if someone has it or finds it. Many where i live say they live in the LSV though technically we are about 20 miles southwest of the river basin line.
  12. Bubbler86
    LSV question...are folks really strict in what qualifies as the LSV? Its officially a river basin but a lot of people consider the LSV to be a more of a region and to that point the NWS used to consider the LSV to be All of Adams, Berks, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Lancaster, Lebanon, Perry and York Counties. Do not have a contact there anymore so not sure if that still stands. River basin wise it is a portion of all those counties plus small portions of Chester and Schuylkill.
  13. Bubbler86
    That would be unfortunate. I know unique and dramatic weather is fun but being out of power for a week is not.
  14. Bubbler86
    Ha.
  15. Bubbler86
    Blizz, I saw your "crazy face" emoticon. Here is the 6Z GFS panel showing rain with a storm sweeping under us coming out of the Lwr Miss Valley. Disappointing that depiction would not at least dump on us at the start but the system from today is not pushing the boundary back like we had hoped.
  16. Bubbler86
    6z GFS has a Chattanooga Choo Choo on Tuesday and lsv rains. Ugh.
  17. Bubbler86
    PSU just had a few longer posts on the MA LR thread and has shut it down for 50 min now. He must not have read the room right.
  18. Bubbler86
    LOL, I am leaving my desk at 1:00 myself. I did my PBP/BBB for the week.
  19. Bubbler86
    It's still snowing here but not really accumulating anymore.
  20. Bubbler86
    LOL. Its to make up for all the lack of rain this summer ;-)
  21. Bubbler86
    It has been snowing here for 15 min. Models that suggested snow in S Central PA win for today. Fresh coating on non road surfaces.
  22. Bubbler86
    And to my point earlier today, I do not want artic air either both for snow chances and it can be harmful to people and animals outside. I understand others may want it and that is cool. But my point was more on the total failure of the model suites in this arena. Rain/snow amounts vary run to run but the pattern recognition failure from a few days ago is a "all hands on deck" failure, IMO. Do people even trade futures on items that weather affects anymore? How can they do it? Maybe they ignore models.
  23. Bubbler86
    You are right they did not. We did here several times but I never checked MDT. There were many nights in the teens but never below 10 during Dec 2019-Feb 2020. So maybe its not all that rare.
  24. Bubbler86
    Yep, you are right. Dec had some warm days with Christmas Eve at 66 but its been fairly moderate. Not much in the way of extremes. I was just thinking of the lack of arctic air based off the models losing that for us next week.
  25. Bubbler86
    I do not keep records like some on here but I if it does not get down below 10 in the next two weeks (at MDT) that will probably be a rare winter where it does not at least break that plateau once. I know it does not get below zero every winter but not going below 10 is surprising. For the this Met winter MDT has only gone below 20 twice which seems quite low.
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