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Bubbler86

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Everything posted by Bubbler86

  1. Bubbler86
    So is the Nam, GFS, Rgem, Hrrr, etc....Nam gets a light period of Frz before rain.
  2. Bubbler86
    The models that kept the primary more dominant into the Ohio Valley (CMC comes to mind) will probably score better on this system from what we are seeing in short term trends. The Euro had a weak surface reflection get into Ohio but had (apparently) incorrectly started the transfer near the Delmarva and turning surface winds here sooner than what is probably going to happen.
  3. Bubbler86
    Blizz, I think everyone is just discussing model output, trends and climatology. A few days ago tonight's system looked like a bad ice storm if not a snow storm and now its looking a lot more wet and a lot less ice for at least the Southeastern part of the state. I know there will be some areas that hold on to frz longer due to being valley bound.
  4. Bubbler86
    Yea, Nam is not enthused about Thursday but I am hoping it is going to correct on that....but we are indeed on the edge not getting snow Thursday ala what the Nam does but being there means we also could jackpot with that whole "you have to smell the sleet to get big snow" line of thinking.
  5. Bubbler86
    King Nam now takes the low up into Eastern Ohio overnight.
  6. Bubbler86
    I am not real gung ho on tonight being a big deal on the roads at least. It will "help" the ice being at night but its above freezing at many LSV locations right now. Low pushing into S/W PA.
  7. Bubbler86
    Oh boy you are up the creek now. You did not feel out the room before posting this!
  8. Bubbler86
    I actually think some of the NWS Met's relish winter storms and their long AFD's show it albeit a pain when they copy and paste the AFD from period to period. Lots of non forecasters read those AFD's. They are no longer the domain of weather heads. I usually provide them myself when sending forecasts,
  9. Bubbler86
    If this is their prediction map, and not hjgh end, I would be thrilled to get 2" of snow before any changeover Mon-Tue.
  10. Bubbler86
    I think if we agree that model prognostics have been terrible even just a day or two out we can still hope this week is not going to a total rain fest. If anything the Nam depiction of a fairly dry Tuesday is open for an option as well.
  11. Bubbler86
    The base of the trough is in SE Texas. Just a terrible look for us. I did not look at surface temps but I would think Spring like temps with this upper air pattern :-(
  12. Bubbler86
    Yea, I saw. It seems models are really having trouble with any specifics right now. As Itstraining pointed out its the trends that are negative but still fun tracking. Does not look all that good for snow right now though.
  13. Bubbler86
    There is no long range Nam. It's the Nam. It goes to 84 hours. The Nam at 12Z was a compromise between the all rain GFS and the Frz Euro so its soundings are just as valid as any other model. The question was why was the Euro not showing sleet and if anyone had more soundings from the Euro and I pointed out that the Nam was above freezing for just over 700 the whole way to the surface. That is a long way for sleet to survive so the Euro may have been similar.
  14. Bubbler86
    You must have been blocking all the model verification posts down on the MA board. 84 Nam is > 12 hour Euro right now. But the reason I posted it is I only had access to soundings GFS and Nam and I went with the better model.
  15. Bubbler86
    The 12Z NAM 84 Hr has it above freezing from 725 down to the the surface at MDT. That's a pretty thick no freeze zone. 23 degrees and light rain over here. Amazingly the roads are not too bad.
  16. Bubbler86
    We used to be on a well so we always had a ton of extra water because the well is off if the power goes off. We also buy ice and have a lot of those insulated foam like boxes that you might get from a home delivery beef place. We can then replicate our fridge for days using those...if the power is off.
  17. Bubbler86
    Not a quick fix but Generac House models are the bomb if you have a house though the making ends meet part probably precludes that. I know being in any kind of hospitality sucks right now. Sorry man.
  18. Bubbler86
    That would be interesting to see that if someone has it or finds it. Many where i live say they live in the LSV though technically we are about 20 miles southwest of the river basin line.
  19. Bubbler86
    LSV question...are folks really strict in what qualifies as the LSV? Its officially a river basin but a lot of people consider the LSV to be a more of a region and to that point the NWS used to consider the LSV to be All of Adams, Berks, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Lancaster, Lebanon, Perry and York Counties. Do not have a contact there anymore so not sure if that still stands. River basin wise it is a portion of all those counties plus small portions of Chester and Schuylkill.
  20. Bubbler86
    That would be unfortunate. I know unique and dramatic weather is fun but being out of power for a week is not.
  21. Bubbler86
    Ha.
  22. Bubbler86
    Blizz, I saw your "crazy face" emoticon. Here is the 6Z GFS panel showing rain with a storm sweeping under us coming out of the Lwr Miss Valley. Disappointing that depiction would not at least dump on us at the start but the system from today is not pushing the boundary back like we had hoped.
  23. Bubbler86
    6z GFS has a Chattanooga Choo Choo on Tuesday and lsv rains. Ugh.
  24. Bubbler86
    PSU just had a few longer posts on the MA LR thread and has shut it down for 50 min now. He must not have read the room right.
  25. Bubbler86
    LOL, I am leaving my desk at 1:00 myself. I did my PBP/BBB for the week.
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