Jump to content

Bubbler86

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    29,675

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Bubbler86

  1. Bubbler86
    Careful though...some other models like the Navgem have an evolution similar to the NAM. Would definitely lean toward the popular globals but there are two camps.
  2. Bubbler86
    Did you think of Caboose because of my Chattanooga Choo Choo reference on Sat? :-).
  3. Bubbler86
    Like the GFS is really keeps the higher forcing south of us but still a nice 6-8" for the LSV.
  4. Bubbler86
    Yes, partly cloudy here. I was going to mention but did not want to poo poo the good feeling over 12Z runs for Thursday. Its a toasty 41 here as well.
  5. Bubbler86
    Yea, UK's depiction has more support than the Nam right now. UK almost never transfers and just rides under us. There is a reflection trying to boil up off VA Beach at hour 78 but it never really takes over vs. the primary just plowing off the coast.
  6. Bubbler86
    Its like the anti NAM right now. Hard to buy into either of them with almost opposite reflections of the SLP. One inland and the other a Miller A like LSV crusher.
  7. Bubbler86
    UK continues its insistence on keeping the stronger pressures further east and south and this is pretty much all snow for PA.
  8. Bubbler86
    Thanks PSU! :-)
  9. Bubbler86
    Hey Carlisle, That is actually 6Z.
  10. Bubbler86
    You know that includes ice, right? :-). Its more like 5-7" on Pivotal.
  11. Bubbler86
    WOW, GFS is a major snowstorm south of us through 75. A bit of suppression. Moderate snow in LSV. Edit-Heavier snow gets up into PA a bit later.
  12. Bubbler86
    So is the Nam, GFS, Rgem, Hrrr, etc....Nam gets a light period of Frz before rain.
  13. Bubbler86
    The models that kept the primary more dominant into the Ohio Valley (CMC comes to mind) will probably score better on this system from what we are seeing in short term trends. The Euro had a weak surface reflection get into Ohio but had (apparently) incorrectly started the transfer near the Delmarva and turning surface winds here sooner than what is probably going to happen.
  14. Bubbler86
    Blizz, I think everyone is just discussing model output, trends and climatology. A few days ago tonight's system looked like a bad ice storm if not a snow storm and now its looking a lot more wet and a lot less ice for at least the Southeastern part of the state. I know there will be some areas that hold on to frz longer due to being valley bound.
  15. Bubbler86
    Yea, Nam is not enthused about Thursday but I am hoping it is going to correct on that....but we are indeed on the edge not getting snow Thursday ala what the Nam does but being there means we also could jackpot with that whole "you have to smell the sleet to get big snow" line of thinking.
  16. Bubbler86
    King Nam now takes the low up into Eastern Ohio overnight.
  17. Bubbler86
    I am not real gung ho on tonight being a big deal on the roads at least. It will "help" the ice being at night but its above freezing at many LSV locations right now. Low pushing into S/W PA.
  18. Bubbler86
    Oh boy you are up the creek now. You did not feel out the room before posting this!
  19. Bubbler86
    I actually think some of the NWS Met's relish winter storms and their long AFD's show it albeit a pain when they copy and paste the AFD from period to period. Lots of non forecasters read those AFD's. They are no longer the domain of weather heads. I usually provide them myself when sending forecasts,
  20. Bubbler86
    If this is their prediction map, and not hjgh end, I would be thrilled to get 2" of snow before any changeover Mon-Tue.
  21. Bubbler86
    I think if we agree that model prognostics have been terrible even just a day or two out we can still hope this week is not going to a total rain fest. If anything the Nam depiction of a fairly dry Tuesday is open for an option as well.
  22. Bubbler86
    The base of the trough is in SE Texas. Just a terrible look for us. I did not look at surface temps but I would think Spring like temps with this upper air pattern :-(
  23. Bubbler86
    Yea, I saw. It seems models are really having trouble with any specifics right now. As Itstraining pointed out its the trends that are negative but still fun tracking. Does not look all that good for snow right now though.
  24. Bubbler86
    There is no long range Nam. It's the Nam. It goes to 84 hours. The Nam at 12Z was a compromise between the all rain GFS and the Frz Euro so its soundings are just as valid as any other model. The question was why was the Euro not showing sleet and if anyone had more soundings from the Euro and I pointed out that the Nam was above freezing for just over 700 the whole way to the surface. That is a long way for sleet to survive so the Euro may have been similar.
  25. Bubbler86
    You must have been blocking all the model verification posts down on the MA board. 84 Nam is > 12 hour Euro right now. But the reason I posted it is I only had access to soundings GFS and Nam and I went with the better model.
×
×
  • Create New...