Ji
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Everything posted by Ji
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Where is the blocking that would sustain a wintry pattern after we hit day 16
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best run of EPS in day..trough in east...im back in...till 00z
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With my sunglasses because that is sun angle preseason
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we are still stuck on a treadmill...its been 4 days since we tried to find the golden road to get out of it and i dont feel like we are making any progress. Nothing is really moving in our favor interms of AO, NAO...maybe slight movement of the PNA but its nothing that is getting me excited
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Got Alaska and Greenland warm too along with us
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i dont think the good pattern for them has started yet
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I dont believe we have made any progress in the past few days except for this short lived window Jan 16-18. We are running on a treadmill
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HM is amazing but he would tell you his winter forecast has been not to good this year. He does have a bias of being too early on things so maybe what he thought will eventually come but....yikes
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put it this way...if we were PAC NW weenies and we kept waking up every morrning to what the GEFS and EPS were saying....we would be having Glorious discussions without any fear of losing our pattern
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I think the more extreme the players are...the better a chance for change. Hopeful anyway
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If -ao is our best indicie for snow....
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It's the dumbest title ever..probably why you missed it
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Yes but 00z had taken 3 steps back from 2 days ago so we are back at square one
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the eps at d15 is extremly ugly...Butt positve AO and NAO
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well at least you agree now that models rule and are fantastic for the most part. Thats basically what you said
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we could be helped if that ridge moved to the left or the right lol but it dosent want to move anywhere
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i thought the 10 day euro looked more encouraging with some push into the NAO domain
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This is workable lol..at least se ridge is flatter ...workable for maybe what it could turn into in feb lol
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All the Models since 6z have trended towards colder and wintrier solutions. This was a snowstorm on the models 10 days ago lol
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We cant even get snow when the pattern is favorable for snow. You will not see snow until jan 25 at the earliest and you know it lol
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I think winter is over...January is cooked and snow past February 18th is difficult and not fun anyway due to sun angle. If we dont see a storm in early feb...we are looking at possible worst winter ever
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I really dont see anything that will get us out of this mess in January. The central pac ridge Dosent move and the nao isnt strong enough to fight it. January is cooked
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Gfs is always 4 days early days early so that takes us to the jan 25 2020 storm....that we have tired for 20 years to get
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Still hard for me to get excited https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2020010318&fh=378
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I love CAD....and there is nothing like a CAD event but i wonder how much more snow we would have if we didnt have CAD/Mountains and this snow was easily able to make it to us.
