jburns

On 8/18/2020 at 11:57 AM, Upstate Tiger said:

 Old people (the age I am now) used to say the more foggy days in August, the more snow in the winter.   

I am one of those old people of which you speak.  You asked for it. It gets earlier every year.

4 hours ago, Met1985 said:

We are running almost a foot and a half above average here. The rainfall has been relentless here since January....

Even down here in the lowly Piedmont I am already above my average yearly total rainfall.. My lawnmower had a rough time mowing this evening. The grass(weeds) are thicker than I’ve ever seen here. We have toads everywhere.  I also have not seen a single tick on me or my three dogs. Maybe the toads are eating them. Lol

12 hours ago, Chuck said:

Bit of an understatement. My daughter lives in Wallburg and she said that the creek below her with surrounding horse farm field was buried and hence Hwy 109 was impassable. Nearby Weather Underground PWS station showed 4.73" of rain in just over an hour and a half. Hate to think what the flood prone area in downtown Greensboro wound up with.

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNCROLLI2?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash

Actually downtown Greensboro was on the edge of the storm and didn’t get much rain at all.

9 hours ago, Tatamy said:

Have now surpassed 4” of rain with this event.

I waited all day for things to quiet down before giving you this important information. You will never get accurate rain amounts with your gauge mounted that way. 

Now this is a hot day.  95º, 80º dew point, 111.3 feels like temp. My grass can wait.

On 7/15/2020 at 8:13 PM, Tyler Penland said:

Was this your first trip to the Gorge at all? If so Wisemans is just the start. I've hiked all over that place and done a little climbing/rapelling. It's insane.

You guys are so old fashioned. This is the 21st century. Hike? Uh-uh. Not me.

1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

Looks great! I’m all in!

Yep. A map like that could make the difference between 35º and rain and 33º and rain.

11 hours ago, metalicwx366 said:

Ramstein. Really close to France/Germany border. 

I did 2 years in Germany. I was a bit further north near Frankfurt. Except a lot of gray foggy days but very little in the way of snow. Cool summers though.

1 hour ago, metalicwx366 said:

Yeah I just got stationed in Germany now. Lots of wind here especially in winter time with those powerful storm systems that move through. It’s been windy everyday I’ve been here so far. Hopefully snowy too. 

Where in Germany are you stationed?

1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

The garage might be a problem

An engine block heater might be he solution.

8 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Thanks! Can I still post in the SE forums?

Hell no!! 

Just kidding.

6 hours ago, Buckethead said:

We never got above 49 or below 47 yesterday/last night.  

 

I used my new calculator and after in depth calculations I came up with a mean temp of 48º. Not bad for June.

No rain here as of yet but I’ve been sitting on 59º since I got up this’d morning.

I ended the month with 12.98” of rain.  I thought about going outside last evening and spitting in the rain gauge just to get it to 13” but I have way, way to much integrity to ever do such a thing. 

4 hours ago, Wow said:

Awesome storm!  Best one in a couple years.  ALready 1.8" in 20 min. Big thunder & lightning, gusty wind.. some small hail. Slow moving too

I got 2.75” in a bit over an hour. Surprised there was no flash flood advisories issued. 

On and on it goes.  Have added 2.25” since midnight giving an event total of 7.66”.  Have I mentioned that it is still raining?

I am currently at 4.99” for the event. Since it is still raining I could have waited a minute or two and reported 5”.  

7 hours ago, Billypg70 said:

You had me till the very last sentence.

We used to have epic winter's.

It's sort of rare now if we get more than 6 inches even NW of 85.

I have loved this very cool spring.

I'm an old cheapskate now and look forward to saving on the cooling bill.

Hopefully from some of the posts today we can prolong the hot weather a few more days or longer.

.

forestall?

On 5/6/2020 at 3:54 PM, Upstate Tiger said:

So I sat in on a Emergency Mgt call at the office today focused on the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season and the forecaster said there is increasing data to suggest that we will be in a weak La Nina by fall resulting in a more active hurricane season.  Unfortunately I can't post since it was a commercial site.  Not only would that correlate to a potentially more active hurricane season but wouldn't be good news for SE winter weather (typically).    

Ah yes, the oft talked about but seldom seen SE winter weather. Old men talk of it at their early morning McDonalds coffee meetings but most younger folks think it is nothing but a myth. 

On 5/3/2020 at 7:44 PM, wncsnow said:

I caught over 20 trout on South Toe yesterday, the water was still a bit high and there were tons of people on the river. Had them for supper too, good eating! 

I can’t believe you ate rsndom people you found on a river. Don’t you realize they have to be inspected to be sure they are safe to eat.

57 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said:

Short version, giant hodograph, high critical angle.  When you're looking for a strong tornado, you look for that big right turning hodograph. There's also a decent amount of academic literature now that discusses the link between critical angle and strong tornadoes. That's the angle between storm motion, and the low level shear. The closer to 90, the more likely you are to have an environment favorable for producing a strong tornado. Think about a boat, flowing down a river. That's the storm. Ok, now, imagine you tie a giant rope to that boat, and yank the back of it at a 90 degree angle. What happens? It spins. Or you fall into the river cause you thought you were stronger than a multi-ton boat in a current. Any who, combined with a low LCL, large cape, AM cap, discrete cells...you have a problem on your hands. At the end of the day, hodographs are one plotting method used to tell us what's *possible*. The reason we use hodographs to prog wind profiles in severe setups, is they allow us to *easily* and *quickly* identify how risky a particular setup is, for a certain area. Thus when you read something "looks bad", it's because that chart or graph, is designed to allow us to easily interpret what we're viewing and come up with solutions. We could just look at the wind barbs on a skew t, or winds on pressure surfaces, but hodographs give us a better snapshot of what's happening at different heights, when it comes to shear and spin. Don't overcomplicate chart analysis. When you forecast, you're considering many parameters. Step one, what's the starting setup. Do the models correctly capture this? Which capture it best? Ok, what are the models that understand the situation to start with saying WILL happen in the future? How are they changing their forecasts with time? What do I know about the local area that could affect this setup? Do the models STRUGGLE with this setup, or area? What does this setup remind me of (or if you're me and have a bad memory, what does this remind a computer database of)? In all of that, you're going to look at many different charts, tables, plots, and figures. Trying to get down deep into the weeds of a single hodograph in a scenario like this, isn't something anyone has time to do (or I suppose...should have time to do). Same is true for a skew-t. People overcomplicate them all the time and you can come up with plenty of interesting things from them. At the end of the day though--for a skew-t, for instance: what's the temp profile, what's moisture look like, is there a lot of surface cape, ok, where's that concentrated, is it surface based, what's the wind, any significant advection occurring, anything else jumping out at me? If it's particularly noteworthy, what are possible analogs of that setup?  Ok, got it, NEXT. Thus, long curvy rightward turning hodograph = bad. The bigger, and stronger the curve, in general = more bad. 

You spent a good deal of time on that post.  Paragraphs would greatly help readability and therefore increase the number of readers.

On 3/21/2020 at 11:23 PM, kvegas-wx said:

First sunburn of the season on Belews Lake today.  Stunning early spring weather!

I didn’t close it but, it quickly morphed into bat-shit-crazy.

89.1º was the high. So close. Mowed the yard wearing shorts felt great.  March isn’t what it used to be.

Just now, frazdaddy said:

Australia and Florida beg to differ

Florida has barely started testing. Australia is just getting started.  Time will tell.

17 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Better hope for heat and humidity, some research shows it slows and kills this virus 

Hope is not research. Keep an eye on Florida if they ever get their testing ramped up.