nycsnow

Hope the euro trends to this just so all the euro huggers are speechless

Gfs probably going to be a bigger hit already more amped at 500

Icon eps west bit

Low is west I’m not looking at precip field

Icon still a miss but did bump n/w a bit

The reality that there’s still multiple different solutions on the table?

84 hr 12z nam is a weak 1006mb low sliding off the Carolina’s lol

RGEM at 84 looks like 00z ggem

A lot of left learners on long range SREF

Or they basically said they don’t know lol to much uncertainty They don’t mention the op euro guess it’s not part of their thinking

KEY MESSAGE 2... There remains a high amount of uncertainty with the development and track of a coastal low Sunday into Monday. However, there has been a clear trend to the NW the last 24-36h in the low track with ECAIFS, AIGFS, the GEFS, and to a lesser extent the GEPS. The operational GFS and GDPS (Canadian) the last 2 to 3 runs have a low track that has been close enough to see some snowfall across the region, but not a major event. Bottom line, there has been a lot of jumping around of the guidance and this is likely due to complex interaction between multiple streams/upper lows embedded within a longwave trough across the western half of the country. This could still be the case another 24h or so before we see better consistency amongst all of the guidance. Given the uncertainty, the forecast has continued to follow the NBM. NBM probabilities for 6 inches or more are generally less than 15 percent, highest across LI. Even advisory level snows get no higher than 20 percent. That being said, the guidance being all over the place has kept these numbers low. The system though is very much worth watching because of its potential with incredible deepening of the low Sunday afternoon and night. Pressure falls around 24 mb in 12h in the 00Z GFS and GDPS. The potential for high winds and heavy precipitation is a concern should a more western track become the consensus. &&

Hopefully by tomorrow we have a better idea but every solution is still on table

I don’t get the euro bowing down lol it’s also been all over place strung out ots graze

It’s barley east the aifs but it’s also not budging it’s pretty steady…. One of these models is gonna have an epic fail soon

But west of the 0z gefs and more west leaning members, it’s not like gefs is OTS if anything it’s trending towards the op… wether that’s right or not tbd

Came n/w got better for most. Legit 50-100 miles away from an area wide blizzard

Here it comes

But continues to take baby steps west

Huge hit incoming

Gfs gonna be a bomb even more tucked in brings rain to coastal Maryland

Euro suite initialized really need to see a trend towards cmc and gfs