strongwxnc

Hello! Mesoscale Discussion 0015 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 PM CST Thu Jan 07 2021 Areas affected...The Blue Ridge of western North Carolina and adjacent portions of the southern Appalachians Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 080354Z - 080700Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow is expected to develop along the North Carolina Blue Ridge into Great Smoky Mountains, at rates up to 1-2 inches per hour by 1-3 AM EST. DISCUSSION...The exit region of an 80-90 kt, cyclonic 500 mb jet streak is in the process of overspreading the southern Appalachians vicinity, with associated forcing for ascent and cooling contributing to steepening mid-level lapse rates. This includes the eastern slopes of the North Carolina Blue Ridge into the Great Smoky Mountains, where low-level warm advection to the east of an approaching mid-level low will contribute to lift during the next few hours. Models suggest that orographic forcing will become maximized across the higher terrain by 06-08Z, when strong upward vertical motion may focus within the favorably cold mid-level temperatures conducive to large dendritic ice crystal growth. Although lower levels near and just above the surface may be initially relatively warm and dry, quick saturation and cooling of this air mass is expected due to evaporation and melting of heavy precipitation. Aided by precipitable water increasing in excess of .5 inches, at least a couple hour period of heavy snow rates on the order of 1-2 inches per hour appears possible. ..Kerr.. 01/08/2021 .

GSP update 10:30 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1030 pm EST: Greenville, Spartanburg, and Cherokee Counties have been added to the Winter Weather Advisory for light accumulating snowfall through Friday evening. Recent RAP model runs have trended colder quicker across the far northern Upstate and this should lead to a slightly earlier changeover to primarily snow across the northern portions of these counties. In addition, the potential for snow showers as the steeper lapse rates move through on Friday could bring light accums closer to the I-85 corridor. Locations southeast of I-85 will still see primarily a cold rain, but with some sleet or snow showers at times. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with the first precipitation shield moving across the heart of the forecast area late this evening. Ptypes are almost exclusively snow at this point across the bulk of the mountains and should remain that way for much of the duration of the event. No other hazard adjustments will be made late this evening.

Biggest flakes I’ve seen in a few years. That band meant business! Never all SN but close. Lighter returns about to come In now. Down to 35.4 .

Under this band it completely changed everything. It’s down to 36.7. And it’s definitely a snow sleet mix little rain. .

I can only imagine. It’s dropped 3° in the past 15 to 20 minutes Under this heavy band in the county. It’s almost 60% snow a little sleet and a tiny bit of rain mixed in. Flakes are getting bigger. .

was 39.7 with heavy returns and a SN/RA mix. Now dropped to 37.9 is about 10 minutes. Still RA/SN mix.

Might be between rain drops but this is brining the snow! 39.1 .

39.7°. Rain snow mix. .

40.5/ 31 here

temp 40.1 WB 35.7

I agree. Should start to Crank up as the low moves off to the east. I need some returns in here to drop my temp. Dancing around 39 right now.

That’s good to know! .

Always cashing in! .

Thats never off topic. I will be drinking Highlands and Lagunitas tonight

My winds have been East all afternoon and Im hoping that fetch will be just good enough at the surface to keep it clean.

Current WV

For my area Im just glad the winds continue to be out of the East. I need all the help that can be given

Light returns already getting into SW mountains and NEGA.

The HRRR is all over the place now. LOL Already cracked a Oatmeal Porter

43.5/32.1 2 SSE wind

WWA with a 2'-6" spread. I can work with that Habersham-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains- Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains- Including the cities of Cornelia, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Forest City, Rutherfordton, Spindale, Tryon, Columbus, Mill Spring, Mountain Rest, Walhalla, Pumpkintown, Tigerville, Gowensville, Cleveland, and Slater-Marietta ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 2 inches, except up to 6 inches possible in the higher elevations of South Carolina. * WHERE...The South Carolina mountains, Habersham County Georgia, and the southern foothills of North Carolina. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to midnight EST Friday night.

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 227 PM EST Thu Jan 7 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A moist storm system arrives from the west this evening and passes to the east on Friday. Widespread wintry weather will be possible with this system, with the best chances and most significant accumulations over the mountains and foothills. Canadian high pressure returns to the region over the weekend. Another low pressure system is likely to affect the area early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 200 pm: ***The Winter Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Warning for Catawba-NC, Iredell-NC, and Davie-NC. A Winter Storm Warning will also be issued for Rowan-NC. A Winter Weather Advisory will be issued for a tier of forecast zones south of the Warning.*** Latest WV imagery reveals upper cyclone centered over northern Miss., with strongly diffluent flow downstream over much of the Deep South and the TN Valley. As the short wave ridge currently centered over the forecast area shifts east, and the upper low continues to wobble east, forcing and moisture will increase rapidly across our forecast area this evening, with precip chances ramping up quickly across western areas through midnight. Surface ridge extending from surface anticyclone over Ontario will spill into the area through the period, resulting in increasing low level NE flow and gradually advecting lower wet bulb temp air into the forecast area. Having said that, wet bulb temps are already around freezing across much of the NC mtns, and those areas are poised to see primarily snow as precip develops this evening. (The Little TN Valley and adjacent valleys are warmer as usual, and will likely see almost as much RA as wintry precip). Locations east of the mountains will, as usual be more problematic, and will (also as usual) depend upon temperature trends in the lowest 1000` or so. While all locations east of the mtns will more than likely start out with rain, advection of the lower wet bulb air should support a transition to snow along and north of I-40, and in fact, precip should be more frozen than not in those areas. Closer to the I-85 corridor, things get a lot trickier. Guidance generally agrees that mostly rain will be seen closer to the NC/SC border. However, periods of stronger synoptic forcing will support high precip rates at times tonight (classic "cross-hair signature" indicated in model cross sections), and this may force periods of a mix with or transition to SN, although how much that would be able to accumulate is debatable. Another source of uncertainty is the potential for a narrow band of mixed precip, most likely sleet, but a brief period of FZRA can`t be ruled out, as the NAM has been consistent in developing a warm nose, albeit not a particularly strong one near the NC/SC border tonight. Since the NAM usually does a good job in capturing these features, even when other guidance does not, we continue to forecast a region of sleet from the GA/SC/ southern NC mtns into the Piedmont. Forecast accumulation is minimal, but this does create another pitfall for the snow accum forecast. Of greater concern for areas east of the mtns, and especially the Piedmont and I-77 corridor, will be the potential for mesoscale banding during the daylight hours Friday, as deformation zone matures in response to cyclone deepening off the coast. Convection-allowing models, especially those that are NAM-based and even the operational NAM itself depict potential for locally high precip rates, esp across the Piedmont from late morning into the afternoon, possibly resulting in quickly accumulating snowfall, even in areas outside the warning. Of course, predicting where exactly this will (or if it will) set up is akin to predicting where a cluster of thunderstorms will develop 24 hours in advance. Nevertheless, the potential exists for locally intense snowfall rates tomorrow, especially across the Piedmont. In terms of amounts: storm totals are forecast to range from 5 to 9 inches across the NC mtns, except more in the 1-3 inch range across the valleys of far southwest NC and over much of Rabun County GA. Four to six inches are expected across the northern NC foothills, where a developing stout easterly flow is expected to enhance precip rates tonight, while 2-4 inches are generally forecast for the northwest NC Piedmont. General 1-2 inch amounts are forecast in the Advisory areas detailed above, although the southern part of those zones may see little to no accum.

All up from here I’m still bush hogging a path on the hill shortly [emoji3517] .

Good luck folks. GSP just put the nail in for my area. .

You can see the sun breaking as the system moves You can