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Damage In Tolland

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    July Doldrums - Summer in full effect Pattern and Model Discussion

    in New England

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

    Mm.. MOS products flirt with 90, Monday thru next Wednesday ...

    All models have that giant heat dome trying to transiently bulge back into the OV... we may get clipped by the continental stuff again.. But, said 'bulging' doesn't really contain a SW ejection of elevated heat, so unless that changes..the going thinking is a low grade heat wave potential... 89.5 those three days for bootleg 90s... Things can change though -

    It's funny.  I've become so accustomed to seeing 594 DM height contouring over such a vast area, that it's like the new standard.  I've been savvy to 'models' for 25 years at this point...  594 DM was always rare.  It seems like it's the new standard at this point ... and what makes it strange is that the atmosphere cools so successfully on Friday with the rim of the 588 DM heights still cutting through central NE ... Seems as though there's like a systemic change, that also requires changing expectations relative to flow structures...  You know ...I was reading, the average heights at 500 mb (the geopotential medium) all over the planet are some 20 DM higher than 1955 ...  (cause and subsequent effect, notwithstanding and I don't wanna go there... just sayn').  Maybe sustaining giant ridges of 594 are getting more probabilistic in such a regime ... hm. interesting.. And that doesn't necessarily mean 110 temperatures just because - 

    I tell you it makes longer term assessing on temperature departures harder to get to, because it looks to the dinosaurs of us like it couldn't really cool off much at all ...yet, we're insisting on 78 or so for a high on Saturday...

     

    7 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

    GFS wants to roast us late next week but there is not great model support for that type of heat, the ridging is a little funky verbatim. I'm selling on the mid-90's for Thurs-Sun (7-10 day) 

    Next week seems more of a high dew week with a day or 3 that flirts with 90. Once the Great Lakes trough establishes in Aug. , we should be left with s very humid Aug, but not a lot of high heat . Warm SST’s will dew us quite well.

    July Doldrums - Summer in full effect Pattern and Model Discussion

    in New England

    Posted

    16 minutes ago, OKpowdah said:

    Alright I need Gray NWS to step up here. WTF. Yesterday it took until 2:37pm to pull the trigger on an excessive heat warning in Keene. Heat index had already been 105F+ for 2 hours at that point.

    Now it's already 89/73 = HI of 97F before noon. Where's the EHW? This will be one of the most obvious situations for a EHW in NH of the last few decades, and they're dropping the ball.

    Why so angry?

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