dan11295

IMHO I am surprised BOX upped the amounts with the models all starting to agree on the dual low setup which could threw a wrench in this a bit, especially in NW zones (SE MA still looks good for a pounding). I fully expect the Euro to come down a notch as well.

12z NAM is not a trend you want to see if you want a high end event. Still a big storm, but lowers the ceiling. This is why the NWS didn't go too high with the numbers this morning.

hopefully 12z starts to sort out the dual low issue a bit. Seems to be one only potential fly in the ointment.

BOX forecast is discounting the NAM for now btw given that its so slow and west.

"Explosive cyclogenesis occurs off the Mid Atlc coast tonight, with an impressive ~40 mb pressure drop in 24 hrs, yielding a bomb cyclone of around a 965 mb low over the eastern MA waters Sat evening! 00z guidance trended west and is in somewhat better agreement than previous runs, however differences still exist. The 00z NAM (especially the 12km NAM) the deepest, slowest and farthest west solution of the 00z guidance. Therefore followed a non NAM model blend solution for this portion of the forecast."

Current BOX snowfall forecast looks like a 10:1 of the 6z GFS. Certainly on the conservative size and we know the GFS has been trash with this storm so far. From the past i know BOX really does not like to forecast numbers >24" prior to start of storm start and certainly not 24 hours out.

GFS coming west is a very good sign. Still have to work at timing of capture and hopefully EURO EPS members resolve the divergence shortly.

The storm isn't going to be that long of a duration. Meat of it is 9-12 hours. Going to be some high rates for sure, but without a bigger stall than implied don't get too crazy,

The dual lows plus EPS members are telling me to keep expectations in a little bit of check. Still minor timing issues which could have sig impacts to realized amounts.

People gotta stop smoking the Kuchie. Those type of ratios aren't usually seen outside of deform bands. Plus winds near the coast especially will knock down ratios. The most important thing, models like GFS notwithstanding (which is trending W) in the upper levels are trending in the right direction. This was evident earlier when the actual upper air observations were showing generally more favorable setup then some of the models.

Appears the dual lows may actually be a thing. RGEM/NAM/ICON all show it now. Will have to see how that impacts storm evolution going forward.

I agree sell the early capture and stall. I would IMHO mostly sell much of a stall in general. There is a history of overdoing stalling at this range. Might slow a bit as it closes off though. The West vs east camp needs to be resolved. 

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Sun angle could become a problem

Not at the end of January, this isn't March or April.

Really windy here now

2" here in Maynard. Just NW of the main band it appears

Wrong thread?

1 minute ago, Amped said:

Joplin had like 800 missing at one point.  It's hard getting people accounted for after something like this.

I am sure many of the missing are with relatives, etc. It can take a few days to track everyone down/confirm they are OK.

AFAIK only 11 deaths have been reported in Dawson Springs so far. It would be very fortunate if it remains that low. Town has ~2500 people and took a direct hit.

https://twitter.com/bclemms/status/1469815153780793347

Footage of Dawson Springs, KY. pop ~2500. Also hit directly by the long track tornado that hit Mayfield. High end damage.

Time of the year is hampering recovery work some due to limited daylight available compared to typical springtime events. Some of these locations, like the candle factory in Mayfield, are just too dangerous to work in at night.

Wonder how far is was continuously on the ground for. Surveys will be able to tell whether is briefly cycled at some point or not. without a doubt will be a an (in)famous long track tornado.

Thunder here too.

Sounds like the Bowling Green tornado went from Moss Creek Ave area NW toward WKU/Bypass in center of city.

Sounds like the 50 number so far is for all of KY. Unfortunately that number is likely to go up. Mayfield and Bowling Green both took direct hits from violent tornadoes.

There is a chance it went mostly south of Hayti (hopefully).

Lots of blocked catch basins with all the leaves on the ground. Had to take a couple of short detours on my way home.

down to 50k out, looks like almost all will have it back by tonight.