dan11295

One of the bigger issues with Nicole is many eastern beaches took a beating from Ian. 

Another issue was the media was so focused on the possibly of a direct hit on Tampa. Once Ian kept moving to the right of the track and it was clear Tampa was going to avoid the direct hit/surge, the "hype train" of how dangerous Ian could be got dialed down a bit. Obviously the intensification the night before landfall that wasn't forecasted also played a role as far as danger perception to the public.

Obviously some of this "I" curse stuff is merely the result of the vagaries in timing of giving names. Hermine was literally named 6 hours earlier lol. But regardless of that fact, its a bit crazy that 3 of the last 6 "I" storms have made U.S. landfall at Cat 4 strength (Irma, Ida, Ian)

Ironically also exists due to an "I" storm (Ike).

10 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

CNN’s current count is 64 with an update of 35 from Lee County today.

From what I understand official numbers are not updated until next of kin are notified. So it probably will still go up some more, but not at much as the Lee County Sheriff was suggesting the morning after the storm.

North Point, FL

Some drone video of an area not focused on much due to the much worse surge damage in places like Ft. Myers Beach. A couple of videos I have seen out of this area again show that well built homes under current FL building codes did VERY well, and this area I believe was in the NW eye wall for a significant period of time. Some manufactured homes they showed later in the video did not fare as well, but I don't know when they were built. A lot of freshwater flooding here as well.

Fort Myers Beach Aerial Footage

Not a whole lot to say. Any buildings still standing close to the coast are likely built recently to current code both against wind and surge. The hotels probably fairly well although there are a few (like the one at the 8:30 mark) with major roof damage.

They heaviest rainband is basically pivoting right over the city of Charleston. A bit unlucky for them there.

4 minutes ago, Cyg12 said:

This video made it to Reddit and someone commented that their brother, girlfriend, and two dogs were in that red house/business during the storm. You can actually see someone open the door near the beginning of the video. Apparently they all survived, but were swept out and clung to palm trees. Here's the post.

Stories like this are while I am hopeful the death toll won't be too high, many of the people the Lee County Sheriff was thinking about found some way to safety. 

Also landfall looks to be closer to low tide which will mitigate surge some (which is the primary concern for the SE coast with this).

5:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 29
Location: 29.3°N 79.9°W
Moving: NNE at 10 mph
Min pressure: 986 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

From the aerials I have seen of Fort Myers and Port Charlotte at least, roofs of well built homes are almost all intact. even the manufactured homes in Port Charlotte fared much better than in Charley (though there was some obviously structural damage to some). From a wind damage point of view so far, the more stringent building codes so far seem do be doing their job. Of course wind-based codes don't help too much when faced with storm surge.

This thread is really getting derailed into banter/politics...

Cape Coral is one area I haven't seen any post storm pics. Sanibel also, but that's been cut off so only going to get aerials of there for now.

11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Back out over water now. Maybe Ian overperforms again? There’s going to be legit surge along the coastline.

Per NHC Ian is more of a hybrid storm now, that combined with core gone will limit re-intensification. That said, there are going to be coastal flood issues with the large wind field and persistent fetch.

I wonder how the communities closer to the coast that got the NW eye wall fared with the winds (e.g. Boca Grande to Englewood).  Obviously a lot of focus on the storm surge, but I know a lot of that construction is newer so maybe it held up fairly well. I know newer construction did better in Michael, which was a bit stronger.

4 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Whats is left of the NW eye wall still not disappointing.

They are getting hammered with rain as well. Daytona Beach is under a Flash Flood Emergency 

12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Some of the images in Charlotte County of Mobile Home parks remind me of Andrew. Absolute destruction. So many retired folks have lost everything.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zkMiG8BIeso

Any pics/video links? I saw this drone video of Port Charlotte, there certainly is some wind damage, especially to mobile homes, but none completely destroyed. Well built homes held up well it looks. Lots of standing water. I am pretty sure they had worse winds in Charley. I am also sure there of some areas with worse wind damage than this.

The good news is the sheriff is already walking back that statement. Sounds like he just made a (rather irresponsible and probably overestimate) guess. The original tweet thread referenced the "hundreds of body bags" comments after Charley which turned out to be a far from the actual number. 

25 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

Fuck

Fatalities confirmed "in the hundreds" in the region, Lee County, Fla., sheriff says on @GMA

Hopefully that is hyperbole. I know people have overestimated those types of numbers in the past. Although I would assume the Sheriff would have better decent first hand knowledge of that kind of info. 

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

PGD gusted 124. People on roofs in Naples

Thats a pretty high gust for an official station.

From Englewood-Fort Port-Port Charlotte have been getting hammered with the intense N eyewall for a while now.

3 minutes ago, hooralph said:

Am I hallucinating or does it look like the SW part of the eye wall could slide under Charlotte harbor and spare them the worst of the surge? Seems to be moving ENE now...

kind of a pick your poison, a bit better for Charlotte Harbor, but worse for Fort Myers.

Current storm motion is really bad for Fort Myers, puts them in the SE eye wall, plus all the surge.

Looks like its coming is a bit south of forecast. Fort Myers is looks like its going to get some of the eye wall.

4 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Just remember that the strongest winds were on the W side of the eyewall 

 

True the portion of the eyewall on shore is the "weaker" side