dan11295

Circulation and banding just east of Cancun is clearly evident on Satellite and Radar.

One of those storms that is more beneficial than harmful. That area has been very dry and really needs the rain.

9 hours ago, SI Mailman said:

Gert probably should have been retired after the '93 version caused extensive fatalities and damage in Mexico and Central America

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Gert

Mexico had a history of not often requesting retirement of names until the past 10 years or so. Emily (2005) was a good example of that. Struck Mexico twice as a major caused $1B damage in 2005 and wasn't retired. 

Palm Springs, CA has had 2.69' so far today. Keep in mind their average ANNUAL rainfall is 4.84'

Looking at radar a slug of heavier rain is about to move into areas east of San Diego. I would expect to start seeing FFW's go up shortly once the precip rates increase.

Also, even though an actual CA landfall is looking less likely now (more like Northern Baja), that really has very little material impact on the actual flooding threat.

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 181450
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hilary Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092023
900 AM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023

...HILARY REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA..

Now that's something you don't see every day

Metrowest Boston getting smoked, FFW up.

Just saw daily climate report yesterday for Phoenix, high of 119 low of 97. yikes

20th consecutive 110+ high, 10th consecutive 90+ low.

KHVN 161453Z 00000KT 1/4SM R02/1600VP6000FT +RA FG FEW007 BKN013 24/24 A2985 RMK AO2 SLP107 P0193 60237 T02440239 53005

New Haven getting smoked.

watching those very heavy echos moving into CT from LI sound. if those start training its major trouble.

does seem fairly progressive at least. Waterbury CT area has seen 4-5" based on radar estimates/weather stations, but they look to dry slot soon.

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Maybe another TDS by Maynard

no wind here atm.

BOX never bought into the most extreme totals, from their AFD earlier.

IJD picked up 0.75" in one hour from 2-3 am. Very juicy airmass for sure.

18Z NAM was further NW with max rainfall location, over eastern NY and VT, compared to 12Z. Am guessing this will be more of a nowcasting thing.

12z NAM/NAM Hi-Res and HRRR all show a SW-NE band of of 4-5"+ in Western/Central Mass. in particular. Hopefully the higher end numbers on e.g. HRRR are overdone, though with high PWATS and any kind of training totals could add up fast.

Interesting how much more rain has occurring NW of PVD-BOS corridor compared to say ORH. Not counting today, BOS is at 2.35", PVD 3.16", ORH 7.35"

Winooski is now at 20.44 (1.4' above Irene).

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Flash flood emergency for Ludlow to Killington. 

Another slug of very heavy rain is about to go over that same area from the south. If that holds together it's going to be a major problem.

17 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Well you did say summer so I wasn't too surprised. BOS record low for JJA is only 41F and that's 6/1. After 6/15 they don't have a record low below 46F. I don't think spring was that much more extreme either though.

Maybe in 1816 they did of course our daily records don't go that far back 

Kind of surprised the daily record at ORH was only 79.  Will see how much they break that by today (was 82 last hour).

Many reports in last BOX PNS of 20-23" in N ORH County. Some of those reports are 2-3 hrs old by now.

Sticking to grass here now.