dan11295

my mom sent me a pic of my aunts house in Leominster I visited yesterday where she is currently staying. Their entire back yard has turned into a lake.

Providence, Leominster, Springfield all getting slammed right now.

Population density is a major factor for impact. Hurricane Bret (1999) is a classic example. 100 kt landfall in Kenedy County Texas (pop 400). Total damage $86 million.

Still very vigorous convention in NW eyewall on IR and Radar.

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

If there are any surprises it'll be the extent of devastation in Georgia

Big concern for next few hours is does Valdosta get into the NW side of the core/remains of the eyewall?

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Radar returns of 60.5 dBZ showing up near Perry!!!! Wow that’s high for a TC

Big blowup in convection in the NW eyewall as well. Impressive convection as the storm moves inland.

South like the the southern eyewall has opened up, at least it will be weakening some on landfall. Doesn't mean anything for the storm surge of course.

I am sure they operationally keep it a 4, since landfall is less than 2 hours away this point. Probably bring it down a bit at landfall in the TCR.

1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said:

Expected a lot more on land at least, especially since we're so close to the eyewall.

Not many reporting stations in the landfall area though. Although even Perry is only gusting to 35 mph last hour.

I am guessing Idalia has peaks in terms of winds and pressure based on the outer wind max. Don't think the wind field expanding is necessarily a good thing as far as inland wind impacts though

Think it is clear places like Cedar Key are going to have a really rough time with the surge, even if the storm comes ashore a bit to the NW.

I know the populated location are people are concerned about for impacts in Valdosta, GA. At 18 mph forward speed core would get there ~3.5 hr after landfall.

While the pressure is not as low yet as some of the crazy HAFS runs from 24h ago its now lower that any of the 0z runs had. Also noting the lopsided presentation on radar. Seem like it wouldnt take much to get dry into the eye and stop intensification/raise the pressure a bit,

the 18Z HAFS trending back E the 18Z GFS came back slighty E also. Feeling better about Tallahassee now. Basically seems it will come ashore one the best places if you want to minimize damage.

Nice hot tower in the western eyewall on both IR and radar (note that eyewall is very far away from radar right now so you are looking high up in the storm with the beam.)

At this point Idalia only has about 18 hours left over water. Not much time for changes in track. The good news is there is some leeway with the landfall point relative to the 11 am NHC track in order to avoid major coastal impacts on more heavily populated areas. Biggest threat at this point is if the turn NNE gets delayed and Idalia ends up toward the central/west side of Apalachee Bay. Not really worried about is going back more SE at this point.

1 minute ago, Amped said:

~975mb seems to be a a common spot where RI starts.  Happened with Micheal, IDA, Laura, Dorian and too many other for me to list.

12Z Intensity models drop pressure to 945-955 range at landfall.

1 minute ago, beanskip said:

And HMON right on top of their positions -- remarkable agreement. 

EDIT: And the HWRF also in virtually the exact same spot  -- slight timing differences, but tracks are the same. 

I thought all these models are based off the GFS?

Tbh anything within 20 miles or so of current forecast is probably a best case scenario as far as damage. less surge for Tampa, but keeps it E of Apalachee Bay.

In general there was an overall westward shift in the models at 18z. Obviously better for Tampa. As mentioned above, won't take much more of shift to be a major problem for Apalacheee Bay and Tallahassee. Even though TLH is inland, Idalia will be moving quick and that area hasn't seen the core of a strong hurricane in a very long time.

12Z GFS is basically over Tallahassee at 18Z Wednesday.

Guidance has been consistent or more or less keeping Idalia in check into shear lessen N of Cuba later tonight/early tomorrow.

NHC now not showing quite as much intensification prior to landfall. the 12z intensity models on Tropical Tidbits have also pulled back a bit, keeping Idalia and strong 2 to weak 3. Of  course RI can be hard to predict, so can't assume anything from that.

I don't think the circulation is vertically stacked just yet, as impressive as the convective burst is.

I know Idalia is forecast to speed up, but how fast of a forward speed are we looking at for landfall?

Best case would be if it somehow came in South of Tampa Bay, mainly because it would limit surge into the bay plus would have significantly less time over the water.

As far as rate of intensification, as noted above you will probably see dry air eat away at the convection trying to establish itself for a while. Probably intensifying at the moment, but will likely only see short bursts of intensification until it can get rid of the dry air and get north of Cuba