dan11295

With the angle of attack and large eye, a large area is going to be hammered with that eyewall. Only moving 10 mph as well.

Colder cloud tops trying to wrap around the eye again. Certainly not weakening at all. based on IR presentation

Eastern "weaker" eyewall is almost to Sanibel Island. Have to watch for friction dragging the core closer to shore. 

We starting to get close to the time where minor jogs will depend who gets the SE eyewall. Looking at Sanibel and Cape Coral in particular.  Regardless though, Ian has a large core and it going to effect a large area of populated real estate.

18Z UKMET finally came north a bit and is now close to 18Z GFS with a landfall near Rontonda. Fort Myers/Charlotte Harbor look like they could be among the worst spots for surge. People have to realize the track may looks a bit like Charley, but Ian is a much bigger surge threat with the larger circulation.

18Z UKMET came north and is close to the 18Z GFS (maybe a hair south i.e. Grove City)

I guess the real question at this point is how much further south can it go? At this point we have ~30 hours left for further corrections. But it seems even closer to Naples is now a real possibility.

Ian clearly seems to be taking a longer term NNE heading at this point which is east of the NHC forecast track. Even Fort Myers is not out of the woods by any means.

6z Euro looks a hair NW compared to 0z, splitting hairs at this point. Sarasota-Venice is at highest landfall risk at the present time. 12z guidance on tropical tidbits is basically all calling for a landfall now. Anyone in the cone needs to be prepared for a landfalling major hurricane.

I looked at the 0z Euro, (but not 6z yet) at it also shows some stalling, a bit of a stall at the coast then again in Central Florida. 

Ian is holding up very well on IR, maintaining cold cloud tops around the core. bit of a NNE jog on radar, overall motion is barely W of due north. Ian is passing over the highest terrain on its crossing now, so the eye may get a bit of a ragged look for a bit until it re-emerges.

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I saw 15-30” maps. What has 50”? That would be unreal 

6z GFS basically stalls near the coast for 24-36 hours. Don't think any other model has such an extreme stall. However, the NW quad is at risk of some excessive rainfall.

It any other model implying a stall or is the GFS on an island here? Stalls are very often over done and don't materialize. thats said the NW flank of the storm is at higher than normal risk for excessive rainfall if the storm coming to the coast/inland.

6 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

The 6z GFS makes landfall far enough South/east that surge may not be much of a factor for Tampa in that scenario 

Also basically storms the storm there....I mean its just making it to Orlando at 0z Saturday! I can't really believe it would stall like that for so long.

As mentioned above, the models are no longer weakening Ian as dramatically prior to any landfall. Likely to be past peak, but they are now showing a major at that point.

From IR you can really tell Ian was intensifying at Cuba landfall. bright cloud tops were starting to surround the center symmetrically. Will see how much short term weakening land passage causes.

South of Tampa obviously is much better for them. However, further south there will be less time for shear to act to weaken Ian before it gets to the coast. Much higher risk of a Major at landfall if it keeps trending in this direction. Regardless, the odds of a weakening storm off the coast to the panhandle have really gone down.

Right now we have more or less two camps, more of less due north in the panhandle with a likely rapidly weakening storm, or the harder right turn into the Florida west coast. Will see if 12Z euro caves more one way or the other. 6z tried to start going NE then stopped soon and went north.

One thing you notice from the 12Z GFS is how the eastern half of the storm is moisture starved, indicating the dry air getting into the circulation (and causing it to weaken) That would mitigate some freshwater issues. Obviously biggest worry is surge into Tampa Bay. 

Current radar does show dry air trying to work its way out of the core.

This is still a very tricky forecast with minor changes having a major impact on resulting effects.

At least we get this run out of the way now.....

You can tell from radar that banding is rapidly improving and core is tightening. Nothing to slow intensification until it hits Cuba early tomorrow. 

Obviously track is going to be critical for potential US impacts. further west is best case, as you get minimal surge into Tampa Bay and you probably have a weakening Cat 1 at best when it gets to the panhandle. 

Cone never changes on intermediate advisories.

Big blowup of convection over the center in the past hour. Combined with the pressure falls already seen would think Ian really starts to take off now. Lets see how well that convection maintains itself.

Best scenario for Tampa at this point would be for Ian to come ashore further south. Of course the downside of that is likely going to be a stronger storm at landfall. South of Tampa probably has a much higher risk of coming ashore as a major.

Seems like all the intensity forecasts peak around 96 hours then weaken Ian dramatically once it gets into the northern Gulf. Lili may very well be a good analog, just not that far west.

Josh has been getting is pretty good in Sydney past couple of hours, obs showing gusts 80-90 mph