dan11295

A storm coming on a NW hook like that is obviously unusual. Notice the Euro doesn't stall and kick it east (unless it does it in later frames?) Just buries it in Central NE.

Dont really buy the pressure being that low as the Euro shows. In reality it will be weakening once it gets north of the gulf stream, not strengthening like it shows.

EDIT: the zoom in is does show weakening

How much moisture will Henri have, would think the slow movement could be very problematic re: flooding

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If this slows near the Cape, big hydro issues just to the west of track. 

Especially with how wet this past week and summer has been. When was the last time we had a TC that had a stall like that wasn't just hauling it to the N/NE?

Just now, dendrite said:

Got the speci before the 1354 hourly? I like the 0.50” in 8 minutes. 

KORH 191322Z 09008KT 1/2SM R11/4000VP6000FT +RA FG VV002 22/21 A3001 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT S AND SW P0047 T02170211

KORH 191409Z 11009G23KT 1/2SM R11/3500V5000FT VCTS +RA FG FEW003 BKN007 OVC013 22/21 A2999 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SE AND S P0073 T02170211

KORH 191402Z 12012G23KT 1/2SM R11/2600V4500FT +RA FG VV005 22/21 A2998 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT S PRESFR P0050 T02170206
KORH 191354Z 10009G18KT 1/2SM R11/2600V3500FT +RA FG VV004 22/21 A3000 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT S SLP155 P0123 T02170206

Very dark here at work in Marlborough, MA. About to really come down here.

9 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

06z NAM is WAY weaker. Like 30 mb weaker but also way further west. Looks like it scrapes E. LI headed right for the CT/RI border. All with a grain of salt being the 84hr NAM. 

Using NAM for tropical......

I'm selling anything stalling a storm out at close to our latitude 

Minimal hurricane at landfall is not impossible, but any hiccup in intensification tend and that's off the table. w/only 6-7 hours until landfall.

Mortality due to heat and cold tends to get neglected because there is no shocking images for the news to show. No destroyed buildings, reporter in 75 mph winds or picture of a wedge tornado.

Was looking at the CDC excess mortality data and you can clearly see 1 week spikes in deaths in Oregon and Washington the week of July 3. Compared to the baseline of adjacent weeks, the heatwave appears to be responsible for ~150 deaths in Oregon and ~300-400 deaths in Washington.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/08/11/climate/deaths-pacific-northwest-heat-wave.html

This NY times chart shows this clearly.

42 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Some storm names you kinda feel aren’t going to be that big of a deal and Fred was definitely one. Nothing menacing about a guy named Fred. A nuisance or a bad neighbor maybe but not a powerful hurricane 

or Bob? 

Two borderline oppressive days Thursday and Friday. Its summer. COC after Saturday though.

38 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Oh I wouldn't doubt there being major reporting issues in a country like that.     For the US it seems to have matched up pretty much in line with excess deaths all along.  Still prob off by some percentage either way

https://github.com/akarlinsky/world_mortality

This is one of the best place I have found to track excess mortality. Numbers are not available for many countries unfortunately, but it gives a sense of who is reporting accurately and who is not. US, western Europe, and a big surprisingly, most of South America is fairly accurate, including Brazil. 

26 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Yep, the virus is pretty much behaving as these things do from an evolutionary standpoint. Something akin to the flu is the endpoint. We are closer than people think. 

I agree the evolutionary end point is very likely going be another common cold. Once enough of the general population develops immunity, mortality rates will drop to negligible levels. Numbers out of the UK show they are heading in that direction (Current CFR of ~0.3% there, only slightly higher than the flu). At that point young children will be exposed to it like any more common coronavirus, the bodily develops immunity and it won't cause severe disease later in life.

Schools should definitely be in person. Primarily and secondary especially. So many kids have fallen behind on development already. 

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Luckily the NE part of the country leads the way in vaccinations so there won't be much of a surge here

Or if their is one mortality/hospital impact should remain low. 

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Heavy band will stall near 84 and develop ENE ward. So 84 area to ORH and BOS I think give or takr 15-20 miles either side will get smoked. Not sure how much past HFD-TOL.

the HRRR from last night was clearly out to lunch and too far SE. That had 0.90" for Bridgeport, CT and they have had 2" in last 3 hours.

Got the gust front here then storms came through about 3:30 am some wind, nothing close to severe.

PDX 114 SEA 105 at 3 pm

All time State record highs are 117 in OR and 118 in WA. Probably some chance the OR record gets broken today.

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions

Based on CDC data, Missouri has a highest percentage of Delta variant of states those data is listed. (~30% as of 6/5 so its probably dominant variant there now.). That is likely not a coincidence. No idea why it has taken a quicker foothold there. Some of that is random chance I think based on who travels when with what variant.

12 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I wouldn't have necessarily picked Missouri to be seeing the biggest rise right now, but here we are.  Cases have risen about 75% there in a relatively short period of time, though we are still talking about numbers in the hundreds per day and not thousands.

Yeah, headlines like "cases up 75%" which lack context relative to overall numbers (and currently mortality rates) are pretty meaningless. Same goes for "x variant found in y location". These are just headlines designed to grab readers attention even though the information by itself isn't that important, IMHO. 

Regarding the risk thing above, I agree. My state of Mass is averaging ~50 cases/day out of 6 million people.

IIRC in Mass. at least if you pull into an intersection to make a left and stop in the intersection and you get hit, you are basically always at fault, even if the other party ran a red light, ignored stop sign etc.