dan11295

12Z intensity guidance is actually coming down a bit, many now "only" peaking at a 100-105kt cat 3.

34 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Track looks more west, hitting low population swamps…let’s hope it stays that way.

Really don't want it to go any more west though, would really increase impacts to the New Iberia-Lafayette corridor. At least those locations are inland, so would still be much better from a surge perspective. Current track may the "best" spot from an overall population impact.

Multiple hot towers on IR, Ida really getting going now.

Only piece of good news is some of the intensity guidance has come down a bit. some models show a plateau in strength in the 6 hours prior to landfall. NHC hinted at potential dry air. Currently track keeps the worse west of New Orleans also.

The entire core isn't going to be over land for very long. its moving at a good clip.

They are also probably being careful due to proximity to land.

2 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

NOAA HH just entered the core, unfortunately something about their wind data seems "off." FL and SFMR not correlating how they should be.

It has been interacting with land. Might that be a cause?

NHC clearly doesn't think Cuba will do that much to it

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated while Ida moves over western Cuba this evening. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected when Ida moves over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday.

Louisiana took such a beating last year. Really not what they need.

2 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

FL winds are up about 10 knots from the previous SE-NW pass by recon. Already strengthening pretty rapidly.

Enough interaction with the Isle of Man looks to occur to halt intensification briefly before impacting Cuba. But Ida is clearly strengthening quickly atm.

Core will only be over Cuba for 6 hours. I don't think Cuba is going to have much impact on intensity at US landfall. For reference, both Charley and Camille went over portions of western Cuba. I think the time over water after Cuba passage is more important. You have to figure 12-18 hours for the storm to stabilize/core to regenerate. That leaves 24-36 for intensification. Not enough time for an ERC. So probably remains a smaller storm size wise.

31 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

We don't need a 'cane into NO in this kind of setup and steering flow. Luckily, still a 1-2 days of run-to-run variability left (until it forms), so it likely won't stay there.

We don't need a hurricane anywhere on the Gulf Coast right now.

9 minutes ago, wx_observer said:

Not seeing a clear sig on the velocity like was there last week though

Might be something near 495/290 interchange? Cell is to my east from my office, but cant see any obvious rotation. Lot of trees in the way though.

TOR warning here

I agree on plenty of outages, even 60-65 mph gusts with fully leafed trees and saturated soil will do a number. Wind damage beyond falling trees, not so much

Seeing 30 mph gusts last hour at ORH & OWD

At least we had recon not too long before landfall. IIRC back decades ago NHC didnt even run recon on NE storms above a certain latitude. Between that and overestimating FL winds that mixed down storms were kept at much higher intensities in advisories then they were in reality. Gloria was only a Cat 1 at landfall (although I am sure many people have the idea in their head it was stronger).

At least the NHC called it for what it is.

Btw Central NJ is really taking a bath. Reports of 6-7" out of there already with that band.

Faster timing really helps to mitigate surge impacts thankfully. Ultimately Henri won't be a hurricane at landfall, but regardless with is going to be a actually high end ~70 mph TS moving NNW, as opposed to late stage transitioning storm off the Cape.

Just now, Sn0waddict said:

How much longer does Henri have in the Gulf Stream?

maybe 6 more hours? its time to intensify is running out.

Timing will be very importing re: surge. Low tide is a 2 pm on south coast, High tide 8 pm.

Irene was more impactful than Bob away from SE MA/RI.

True, without a real ET transition, convection might wind down fairly quickly. 

Guess the question is how far west can this go? Is a full left hook into NJ possible?

18Z GFS was very similar to the Euro. Stalls it out in East Central Mass. I think weak Cat 1 seems to be ceiling. Will be moving too slow to come it much stronger. Plus Henri wont be that strong IMHO when weakening starts.