nzucker

58 minutes ago, DaculaWeather said:

And laser beams.... don't forget the laser beams. :-)

And the contrails...don't forget the contrails.

28 minutes ago, skierinvermont said:

Ranting about how the Russians are punishing us with cold weather is a valid point?

 

Maybe ban this guy too.

I think they should both go.

Guys, this thread is about Arctic Sea Ice, not about the current cold snap in the Northeast U.S., or the Russian plot to displace cold from Siberia and move it to North America, or anything else. Keep it on track about the health and state of the cryosphere. Is that so difficult?

11 minutes ago, Animal said:

SLC gets good snow.  Airport is down in the flats.

Park city has a town etc. Actually vibrant.

House we purchased is on a ridge a few miles outside the town.

I am telling you...I wanted/selected to move UTAH. 

Toured lots of spots over the years.

Congrats!

Where else did you look?

1 hour ago, Animal said:

Yea. I looked everywhere for quality of life. Utah is awesome.

i really like slc.

My best guess is around 200-250 inches a year on my street.

Not like little cottonwood canyon or Alta/snow bird snow.

 

I've skied at Snowbird twice, and it was amazing both times. I went with Skierinvermont from these forums...he lives out in Denver now, but was living in the SLC area at the time. It's really amazing out there...so beautiful, so many outdoor activities nearby, great city life too. I've been to Park City in the summer and it's great then as well. My mom went to the Sundance Film Festival there, and she loved it, too. 

Wow 200-250" is a lot. You must have a pretty nice spot. I know Snowbird averages like 500" and got 700" in 10-11.

16 minutes ago, Animal said:

Irish rob... noticed the Irish jig flag in the photo!

to all,

wife & I are moving to Park City Utah.  Never got the big snow I wanted.  My wife has 3 months of work here in nj. My biggest regret will be knowing I miss measuring what I wanted. Have about 5-7 weeks left around the area.

wishing u all an epic nw burbs winter.

Wow, sorry to see you go, you've been a great contributor to these forums. How long have you been in NJ?

Park City is a whole different ballgame though. Congrats? How much snow do they average?

25 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

You win. You're going to get all the snow way before us and lots of it. Any given town in the Dakota states have a way more extreme and colder winter pattern than ours. Have fun in 3 feet of snow and low of -14.

Actually plenty of areas of the Dakotas average less snow than parts of the NYC metro. Exceptions being the higher elevations in the western parts of the state like the Badlands, the Black Hills, Theodore Roosevelt Natl Park.

On 10/18/2017 at 10:19 AM, StormchaserChuck said:

The way the whole Northern Hemisphere is moving right now feels like a warm Winter to me. Probably Pacific driven. 

I thought you were originally thinking a cold winter, driven by a -NAO and weak La Nina, as well as a -QBO induced blocking regime. Have you changed your thoughts?

I'm starting to believe this will be a pretty mild winter. Global temperatures are really high, the PDO is dropping towards negative, and the La Nina is strengthening to near -1.0C. It doesn't seem that there is very much cold air in the Northern Hemisphere, and what little there is seems to be concentrating towards Siberia and the Pacific Northwest. Becoming a little concerned at this early juncture.

8 hours ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

Yeah I remember now, that was an amazing winter with amazing snowpack for almost 7 weeks if I'm not mistaken 

Nope, there wasn't much snowcover. The Feb 11-12 storm disappeared in a few days, and January and March both torched. There was a small period in mid-December with snow on the ground but nothing noteworthy.

On 9/21/2017 at 11:26 PM, forkyfork said:

another early winter for russia

Yes, this could be another good fall for Eurasian snow cover with a large ridge over the Kara/Barents area as well as a ridge over most of North America. This pushes all the cold into Russia/Mongolia/China as the PV sets up there early on.

13 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

The passage had the earliest ever transit this year on July 29th.

It looks blocked by medium concentration ice in the image above. Is that refreezing in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago by 9/9?

Looks as if the Northwest Passage never opened?

A relatively weak melt season in terms of area and extent, but volume continues to show limited recovery.

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Tough to beat the 2012  extent record with such a strong summer polar vortex pattern since then. But 2007 will probably go down in history as the year that the Arctic permanently shifted to this warmer state with reduced sea ice. Even recent numerous more favorable summers haven't allowed  the sea ice recover to pre 2007 levels. Our best year now is still lower than anything that came before 2005-2007.

 

If we have a relatively -AO winter with limited Fram export, and another cold PV dominant summer following this relatively benign melt year (6th to 8th lowest extent), then we may have a chance to get back to pre-2007 conditions. It definitely appears the ice pack has stabilized somewhat.

And yes, Friv disappeared when the big melt years ceased. Interesting to see the bias of different posters on here.

Just now, Isotherm said:

 

Cooling degree days have been the lowest probably since 2009 for our area. I only have 766 CDD's for year thus far, quite low comparatively after the past couple summers.

I've been tempted to pull the bedroom A/C several times..I don't think I've turned it on once since August 22nd, the day that hit 89F in Central Park. NYC has only reached 80F twice this September, and several days have topped out in the 60s and low 70s...It's been annoying to lose the cool breeze the window generates by having the A/C unit blocking the vast majority of the window. I can open the top a crack, but it doesn't provide nearly the ventilation that a full window would. 

I may need the A/C one last time this week, which is why I kept it in...Wednesday and Thursday look fairly warm at 82/67, though not that much above normal for mid-September. Once the next trough arrives, it's out. It looks like the next trough is progged to approach the area around 9/20 with the arrival of Juan, and that is climatologically around the point that most people switch from cooling to heating anyway. Sure, there may be one or two warm days in October, but those are usually brief and are generally accompanied by low humidity, so there isn't much point in keeping A/C in.

Uninstall awaits the coming of the weekend trough.

On 8/24/2017 at 1:52 PM, Isotherm said:

 

Agreed on all counts. Those numbers will almost certainly be too high. And yeah, definitely feeling much more fall like in terms of sun intensity now. Really noticing the lengthening nights.

I may have even been too high with 1-2 more 90s for NYC and 3-4 more for EWR...looks like we were done after the widespread 90F readings on Aug 1st. We may see a slightly warmer pattern in the second half of September, or at least the next week, but it doesn't look extreme enough with declining climo to reach 90F again in NYC. It looks as though 12 90-degree days will be the number for Summer 2017.

Barring any extreme changes in the forecast or the first October 90F since 1944, time to put this thread away for winter hibernation. The fat lady has sung...saying she will see us in April.

15 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro and its EPS show an absolute classic SNE/ East coast cane hit setup. Some of the GEFS do too. All we can is hope they have a clue 

You need that trough to get negative tilt in time, especially to get a hit down here towards my area. Otherwise the hurricane will be carried OTS by a positively tilted trough which is probably 90% likely.

7 hours ago, Isotherm said:

16 here now. We're pretty much done given the upcoming pattern. Might be able to make the average of 18 for around here.

I don't think your forecast will verify for EWR or NYC. You need 4 more at NYC (16 have 12) and 6 more at EWR (25 have 19). I think the reality is 1-2 more at NYC and 2-3 for EWR. You will be very close but probably on the high side unless September is huge heat. 2015 was the warmest September ever and had 6 days of 90F.

Current pattern keeps Canadian high pressure over the area into September, looks like until at least 9/5. With 9/15 basically the cut off for more than an isolated 90F every 10 years, time is running out fast.

You could feel it in the air yesterday. Still warm but sun is losing its punch. Airmass is transitioning to low humidity deep blue skies.

11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I'll be 133 in 2079.

Well Jeanne Clement in France lived until 122...so you just would have to be 11 years older than the oldest person ever.

I would be 91 in 2079. Hopefully I make it then fail soon after.

It's impressive to see -10C 850s reaching the Siberian coast with sub-freezing 850s into Scandinavia in mid-August.

The effect of the storm may be more detrimental as it drifts towards Eurasia and strengthens..it's only like 1000mb over the CAB now.

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it's actually a pretty compact ice pack right now. I think the cyclone perhaps has just slowed the peripheral melting. 

Though bluewave is correct that typically cyclones over the CAB try and disperse the ice. But the concentration hasn't suffered even if it is doing that. 

I think this storm is less windy than the 2012 event...pressures are a little bit more diffuse, as there is not nearly as much gradient.

Also, 850s are somewhat colder with this storm. There is a large area of -10C 850s and a high concentration ice pack, so there isn't the tearing apart effect that 2012 had on broken up, mushy ice. Instead, the cold is refreezing the periphery and the ice may spread out a bit.

1 hour ago, Paragon said:

My prediction is for LGA to get to 20, NYC to 15 and for JFK and ISP to reach 10.  A solidly average summer.

I think 3-4 more 90F days for NYC is very reasonable. It will depend on how far north the ridge builds after 8/18. Definitely could be a strong trough in the west, but it looks shortlived and the warmest readings look to be to our north.

It's getting late to rack up 90s especially with the 7-day forecast not showing any. It's 8/17 at that point, losing daylight fast.

1 hour ago, Paragon said:

Somehow JFK hit 90 in October 2007

October 2007 was one of the warmest on record. I was in VT, and we were like +6 for the month.

Easier to hit 90F late in the season at JFK than early. Not much seabreeze in early October.

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

recent years had some very hot days in September...you can't rule out that happening again...

2016: 3 90F in September

2015: 6 90F in September

2014: 2 90F in September

2013: 1 90F in September

All before 9/15...gets really hard the second half of the month when average highs are dipping into the lower 70s.

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

recent years had some very hot days in September...you can't rule out that happening again...

Certainly can't but the 90F window historically seems to close in the 9/15-20 window. Even the famed Sept 1953 heat wave was the opening days of the month. NYC hasn't seen a 90F October reading since the 1940s. 

11 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

I like where I stand with my pre-season predictions; might even end up a tad aggressive for some areas:

 

 

PHL: 28

EWR: 25

NYC: 16

LGA: 19
TTN: 21

Yea I doubt we will see that many more. All the models show troughing through mid August...how many more 90s are we really going to see after 8/15 unless we have a 1953 type September heat wave? 

You are saying 4 more for NYC, which makes sense, probably 2-3 more in late August once the trough passes and then 1-2 more in September, always hot for first week of school.

Models also show potential tropical moisture, and NYC has a tough time hitting 90F with high soil moisture and vegetation growth. Combine that with a declining sun angle post 8/15 and you see a bleak picture for racking up 90s.

8 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the vortex is mostly hanging out over the CAB...there's a pretty strong storm in the couple days...we'll see if that is strong enough to do any damage. But it is definitely not the typical pattern for huge melting out shown through mid-month.

The biggest enemy of the ice is how thin it was at the beginning of the year. If this pattern happened in 2015, we probably would have seen a minimum extent in the mid 5s.

 

There are windy conditions as the low bottoms out near 980mb but also a cold core of -10C 850s near the NE Beaufort as well as uniformly below freezing 850s across the Arctic to balance it out. The ECM/GFS take the deep vortex out towards August 15th, becomes difficult to see huge losses as we approach the second half of August. A lock now that area and extent finish above 2007 and 2012, probably 2011 as well.