nzucker

2/25/10 could have been epic if it hadn't flipped over

Still psyched over 2/27/10

2/25 was not an elevation event in Central VT....Middlebury got 20" at the bottom of the Champlain Valley. We had a nice slug of moisture moving due north with that coastal low forming, classic signal for the CPV to get blasted. We barely stayed all snow though.

WA WA was like donner/ tahoe for a storm 42 inches EPIC.....

who will get smoked this year........will someone see a 20 incher....a thirty incher......more.......all possible in just about any area in SNE....which IMO is one thing that makes this area special

I think interior NNE is favored with the -QBO/Nina. I'm really liking where I'm sitting though Rindge probably isn't the best place for 20"+ events since it's fairly far from the coast.

My parents just got back from the Banff area, long story short they experience some heavy snow, i'll post some pics later. +SN in August must be awesome.

I saw +SN at the Columbia Icefields in Banff/Jasper in August 2000. We went out on the snowcat and had a great time.

Wow, the Yukon is beautiful...those pictures are absolutely stunning. I love the contrast of the foliage from the birches with the coniferous species that inhabit the area as well.

Good morning,

It is mild this morning with a low of 8.0C.

We now have 9.2C, it is overcast and windy.

Apart up north, temperatures are around 7/11C on the territory.

About forecast, it may stay overcast and windy, with rain showers and a high of 14C.

Have a good day

I am loving your updates from the Yukon, can't wait to hear from you in the winter.

And yes, the fall colors are beautiful. Are those mostly aspen in the Yukon? We just have a few trees turning here in New England, still a good month before peak foliage season here.

Someday will make it up that way. Have been to the Rockies in Banff/Jasper so have a bit of a taste for alpine Canada, but the Yukon mountains are another level of extreme.

That was a sneaky good storm Will, not talked about very often. What was the set-up for that one? Was it a Miller B with a marginally cold airmass?

If I remember correctly, it started out as a SW flow event that transferred to a coastal. I recall the NYC people getting really excited about the 2/24 storm, and I told them they should forget about the first event since it was a SW flow situation with no arctic high to the north (you can see the -20C contour on the reanalysis maps is barely touching Northern Labrador), and concentrate on the 2/25 Snowicane. This turned out to be a prescient forecast as NYC was all rain in the first storm, but Central Park got 20" in the Snowicane while places 50 miles to the north like Highland Mills NY and Harriman NY saw over 30".

I may have gone downhill since with my mediocre Winter 10-11 forecast, but I was on a hot streak in forecasting at this point....I was repeatedly criticized in the NYC threads for suggesting that the 2/24 storm was going to be a rain event, but I went on our radio show on WRMC at Middlebury with Andrew and called for 16-20" at Middlebury (about 48 hours out) when the NWS was only forecasting like 6-10". Everyone played the storm extremely conservatively including both the BTV NWS and the TV stations, but Skier and I were convinced it was going to be solid for the Champlain Valley because we had a strong moisture stream coming south out of the Hudson Valley, which has a direct feed into the CPV, and heavy precipitation in a short period of time, which tends to reduce the downsloping effect and allow the Champlain Valley to do well compared to the more elevated areas. Usually, long-duration, light precipitation storms are when downsloping gets the best of the Middlebury area, but this was an 8-hour thump that could maximize accumulations at low elevations with marginal temperatures. Skier called for 12-16" while I went pedal to the metal and called for 16-20", both of which were FAR more than the NWS forecasts, and we ended up doing very well on the event. The campus, according to our measurements, received 20" of paste, some of the heaviest snow I'd ever seen...made for a beautiful sight on all the old buildings. When I woke up the morning of the Snowicane back in NYC, I immediately said I thought Central Park would get 20"+ based on the strong radar echoes streaming from the NE and the fact that Central Park had started as mostly snow whereas other stations like HPN/White Plains were reporting rain at 32/32 or 33/32. This was also a good forecast as they had a bit over 20", and suburbs to the north like mine got pasted.

This was the most snow I'd seen in 2 days, 46". I drove home right after the 2/24 storm, steering carefully on the snowy Vermont roads at 1am in an attempt to get home for the Snowicane despite a very heavy workload in the middle of 2nd semester of senior year. I arrived home to a rain/snow mix, slept for 6 hours, awoke to a whiteout. Those were two great storms....the first was just so unexpected because the BTV NWS and the Vermont TV stations did not give the storm the proper billing, and the Snowicane was an absolute nail-biter with the 0C 850 contour right over Westchester County...somehow I stayed all snow at 350' elevation despite mixing to my west near Nyack NY and to my northeast at HPN/White Plains Airport. The 26" I measured was not indicative of downtown, however, as I took my final measurements in the woods behind my house closer to 400' altitude. The Scarsdale Wunderground station, which is a more built-up area a couple hundred of feet lower, was at 33.9F for much of the day and did not accumulate as well. I'd say the town of Dobbs Ferry had 21-22", though I didn't measure there, just noticed the drop-off. This was such a weenie period of my life....never mind that I was in the middle of my thesis and last semester at Midd, I walked around all day during the 2/24 storm, hiking up to a hill at 800'...then I arrived home at 4am the next morning to see the Snowicane. I was glad I forecasted the event well as we had people like environmentalist Bill McKibben and a couple environmental science professors sometimes tuning in to our show.

Well historically, he did. 14" and done. This was the storm that broke that camels back.

But I only got 14"!!!!

We got 20" of absolute cement in Middlebury VT from the 2/24 event, but the snowpack was devastated quickly by the heavy rain that followed in the 2/25 retrograde Snowicane.

Unbelievable shots, Will, telling the story of the Dec 2008 storm that ended tragically for parts of elevated SNE. Impact was minimal in Middlebury as the trace of ice on top of the 7" snow was the only sign of the destruction further south, but I was delayed for quite a few days trying to take Amtrak home...the train had to cross some of the harder-hit terrain north of ALB. Really incredible what some of those areas went through, rivals Quebec in Jan 1998.

'07-'08, '05-'06, '00-'01, '83-'84, '74-75, '70-'71, '62-'63, '56-'57.

Those winters give a pretty cold picture nationally, especially in the Northern Tier, definitely related to the gradient you have mentioned:

-QBO and cold ENSO events tend to have more SW flow events than other winters according to my research looking back. Obviously it doesn't mean there can't be coastals though. '00-'01 was an example with a lot of coastals.

What other examples do we have of cold ENSO/-QBO/-PDO?

How do winters like 74-75 and 83-84 compare?

That's an awesome pic. We had some great looking storms last year. Very classic mid-level features on those three of 12/26, 1/12, and 1/27. I have a feeling we'll see a lot more SW flow events this coming winter.

Since most of us are in here... in a short summary what kind of winter are we expecting this year? Will we have a neg NAO like this year?

I think most people are expecting a -NAO. Consensus seems to be we'll have a decent winter with a weak Nina, -QBO/low solar, and -NAO cycle. No one really knows though, that's why weather is fun!

Here was my snowpack:

High was 86.8F, about 2F above average. Unfortunately, it's another mild night despite the clear skies, so the AC has gone back on.

FAIR

73.4/62

I agree, The only place of relative safety is being underground. When you're dealing with EF4+. In the deep south many people don't have basements and so they have to take their chances in their home as far away from the outside walls as possible. The decision to try and drive away from a tornado is a very personal one. Several people died in Picher, OK when they drove out of town trying to get away from the tornado.

I'd still rather race it in a house without a basement.

Besides, the whole public is told to "stay home and hide" so you're not likely to hit a lot of traffic and probably make a quick escape.

When I got in the car it said 7* but as I went through the hollow at the bottom of my hill it went down to 0*!

Not surprising...the low in town here was 13.7F but I'm sure some of the frost hollows in the woods behind my house, which reach an elevation over 400', got well into the single digits. The difference in snowpack retention in the woods is also incredible: there's nearly 18" back there while around town it's more like a foot snowpack.

I agree 100%.. I can do without the wind. Even without the NAM most models print out a good 8-12" snowfall for the area.

You're going to have very nice ratios up there. Even down here in Southern Westchester at 350' elevation, I'm thinking at least 12:1 ratios for this storm since 850s are like -6C, and I expect the storm to occur overnight which should hold temperatures in the mid 20s. This is another cold storm like 12/26, albeit with less wind, which should promote better dendrite formation. I'm liking the chances for 8-12" for NYC metro including the extreme NW areas...you might see a little less QPF than LI, but you'll be vastly colder.

3" here now ..still snowing here ...some moderate bursts.

I was down as far as POU today and they had 4" when I left at 2:30 PM. I thought the most impressive snow was around northern Dutchess and southern Columbia around 4:30 PM. They probably got a good 6" total.... Also they still had a good amount of the old Noreaster snow left...can't be sure but maybe 4, 5, 6 inches survived the torch.

10" reported in Somers in Northern Westchester County...

4" here in Dobbs Ferry.

Bottom line is ...Governor Rendell was right about the whimpification of America. LOL

You live in a Northeast city ... guess what...it snows and you deal with it. You have to expect to be inconvenienced after a 20"+ Blizzard! You cannot expect NYC to have the resources to make life normal within 24 hours after such a storm.

And it simply wouldn't be cost effective for NYC to even attempt to be prepared to make things normal so fast after such a blizzard. Its not worth it when you only get a few storms like that per decade. (yes two this year, but that was a freak thing) There would be no point in developing that level of "snow fighting" infrastructure for infrequent events like this. You gotta look at the cost/benefit analysis.

I agree that people expect too much of the City in terms of plowing/clean-up immediately following the storm, but there needed to be a greater effort made to allow emergency vehicles to pass. Fire trucks and ambulances were delayed by hours trying to get to calls because of the poor plowing, and three people died as a result. That is inexcusable.