nzucker

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

And that shows someone blaming this winter on climate change how?

No one is saying this winter's low snowfall is caused by climate change. We've discussed many factors on here: the lack of ENSO-atmospheric coupling, the descending +QBO, high AAM and the location of AAM deposits. Part of it is also just luck, as you can see by the much higher totals in Cape May County, DC, and BWI, areas that average significantly less snow than NYC. There is a difference in pointing out trends occurring in the next few decades versus blaming this winter's low snowfall on climate change. No one has done that. 

2 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Has that never happened before?

Well it's obviously happened before that a big storm has been followed by warmth, but it's more freakish now than before. Climate models show declining snow cover in the 21st Century as the snow line recedes north. 

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The gone pretty quickly snow cover has been a big theme after the 14-15 winter. I don’t really mind it as long as it’s a great snowstorm. 

Well that's another feature of the changing climate that will be growing more severe in coming decades. Bigger storms but less snowpack. The record Feb 2006 and Jan 2016 storms were both gone in under a week...

14 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

This is quickly becoming my least favorite winter of all time (minus the nov event as it was not winter). BOS has a snow storm now leaving NYC as the sole area from North Carolina north to not have a snow event over 2”. Wednesday could easily be another non event. We have one last shot the last few days of feb into the beginning of March where the PNA could finally go positive and we could see a bench mark type track regime take over. If that does not pan out this will be hands down my least favorite winter of all time  

What about 01-02? Or you're only counting meteorological winter?

I remember a lot of really crappy winters: 97-98, 98-99, 01-02...middle school winters were brutally warm and snowless. 99-00 wasn't too much better except for the one stretch in late January where we had a 6" storm and some arctic air. 

The position of the Hawaiian ridge stretching south of AK with a vortex to the north this year is very similar to 98-99 and 99-00, some of our worst Nina winters. A flat Aleutian ridge or ridge north of Hawaii tends to be a very unfavorable Pacific signal, and that's ruled the roost this winter.

16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

31 degrees here in Sloatsburg, intermittent very light snow/sleet showers, not even a dusting or coating. The radar looks like everything is about to end totally. New HRRR is less than a half inch of snow. Heading to bed, goodnight. Edit: All rain now 12:15

Wow raining all the way up in Sloatsburg, that tells you how bad the storm ended up being.

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

We want the precip to come up faster before the cold air goes away.

The high is in the wrong spot on every model. Thats not the issue. This is a snow to rain event.

 

Cmc looks good for CNJ

When thicknesses are colder in Phoenix than NYC, there's your issue. 

A low over northern Missouri isn't usually favorable here. We've seen so many of these tracks west of us this season.

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I’m finding many ways to bust this winter.  That just rubs in my idea that had the precip shield been as expansive from the developing coastal as I expected back into NW NJ that NYC would have done okay here and maybe seen 2 inches of snow/sleet

As this comes north, will we see a transition to snow in the Bronx/Westchester?

11 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Our climate is changing. We will see more blockbuster seasons for the next few decades before we eventually reach a critical mass and temps are too warm for snow

and I totally blew this one, I’ll admit it. Iight rain uws

Well, I don't think we'll be alive when it's completely too warm for snow. The more aggressive climate models as reported by the New York Times showed NYC's climate to be akin to the current climate of the Arkansas/Missouri border by 2080-2100. The less aggressive and lower emissions models showed NYC's climate in the 2080-2100 period being akin to the current climate of DC. Both of those areas still receive SOME snow.

And the climate warming may lead to more disruptions of the polar vortex and a more negative AO, which will limit the warming here at the expense of a rapidly warming Arctic.

But yes, we rate to see significant changes in our lives. We have already seen some: the higher summertime dewpoints, increased variability in winter snowfall, growing frequency of blockbuster storms. It will be sad, especially for us winter lovers, but it's the world we've created.

3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Rain/Snow/Sleet here, no accumulation. Temp still 34. Thought it would at least be a brief period of pure accumulating snow from the Bronx north but now thinking the entire city sees nothing.

It's not really doing anything here in the Bronx. Had a brief period of sleet. I thought we were looking at a 1-3/2-4 event around NYC's northern areas. Winter of 2018-19 continues its suckage.

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

The low is tracking pretty close to the coast, we haven't really had a good track for a snow event for NYC Metro all winter  

Everything has gone west of us with the -PNA pattern. Some years the coastals lock in like 09-10 where we had Nor'easters on 12/19, 1/30 (south), 2/5 (south), 2/10, 2/26...plus the March rainstorm.

Mostly sleet in the Bronx.

On 2/16/2019 at 11:40 AM, KEITH L.I said:

10-11..constant snowcover from Boxer Blizzard to the middle of February..almost 2 months

Boxing Day, you mean? Lol.

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

There hasn’t been much middle ground with Marches during the 2010’s. While most have been cold, the few warm ones were record warm.

NYC March

2018....-2-4

2017....-3.3

2016....+6.4

2015.....-4.4

2014....-4.8

2013.....-2.4

2012....+8.4

2011....-0.2

2010...+5.7

 

March 2015 broke the record with a 20" snowpack in NYC. In the suburbs, there was snow on the ground until almost 3/20.

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Let’s hope the EPS showing a relaxation of the SE Ridge works out in about 10 days. Maybe we get a window near the beginning of March for a more significant snow event than we have seen recently.

 

That's a real nice look with a -EPO and an east-based NAO. Will keep temps cold for sure with the PV near Hudson Bay.

11 hours ago, bluewave said:

ISP picked up 15.8 with the 950 mb benchmark blizzard. They were also in a prime location for the heaviest late season snows.

ISP 17-18

Dec....6.0

Jan.....22.0

Feb.....1.4

Mar.....31.9

Apr.......4.6

Which of the March storms did they have the most in? The 3/21 event? 31.9" is such an impressive total for that location in March, more than a full season's worth of snow in a month that borders on spring.

I had 6.0" in the 4/2 storm. That was a really nice event here. We just missed the following weekend on 4/9; airmass was still cold enough for snow yet storm threat faded.

It doesn't look like we're anywhere near done this winter with the Sunday night 1-2" event then the bigger storm Wednesday afternoon. We're due for a little luck.

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, I recently mentioned the lack of 20-30” snowfall seasons this decade. ISP is yet to have a single season in this range for the 2010’s. Most of the years this decade were 40” and above. 

ISP snowfall

1	2019-04-30	7.2	75
2	2018-04-30	65.9	0
3	2017-04-30	39.3	0
4	2016-04-30	41.4	0
5	2015-04-30	63.7	0
-	2014-04-30	63.7	0
7	2013-04-30	46.9	0
8	2012-04-30	4.7	0
9	2011-04-30	55.3	0
10	2010-04-30	53.8	0

How did ISP get so much last year? I had 48" in the Bronx. Did they get a lot more in the January 950mb megastorm?

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

I still have some patches of sleet/snow on the ground.

This was my backyard yesterday morning...still some left. So saying the storm was nothing is ridiculous.

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

NYC needs to find a few more inches of snow this month in order to pull ahead of 01-02 and 11-12 in the DJF snowfall department. Currently the 3rd lowest at 2.3 since December 1st.

1	1997-1998	0.5	0
2	1918-1919	1.1	0
3	2018-2019	2.3	14
4	1972-1973	2.6	0
5	1931-1932	2.7	0
6	1991-1992	3.2	0
7	2001-2002	3.5	0
8	2011-2012	4.5	0
9	1989-1990	5.0	0
10	1900-1901	5.1	2

Yes, I've also had 2.3" here in the Bronx during the entire meteorological winter. The biggest event, aside from November, was the 1 3/4" snowfall that I recorded on Tuesday that was combined with sleet and ice. Incredible to think in some winters we see this amount of snow in an hour; others it takes a whole season to accumulate a few measly inches. 

If we have a benign ending to the winter, this will be the least snowiest winter I've experienced since 01-02 when Dobbs Ferry only received 8" all winter. (I was in New Hampshire for the 11-12 winter, where we were well below average but still had over 50" with 25" coming in the October storm.) I've been incredibly lucky...had almost 50" in the Bronx last year, 58" in Southern Brooklyn in 13-14, nearly 70" in Dobbs Ferry in 09-10 and 10-11. But averages are averages for a reason, and we were due for a ratter. We're also seeing a continuation of the extremes where NYC sees fewer winters with 20-30", as was common in the 1980s, and more winters with 40"+ or <15". 

Tom,

Great thoughts. I also think a major factor in the lack of significant winter weather (aside from the polar vortex and 2F low in NYC) is the location of the +ENSO event. Many were expecting a west-based El Niño/Modoki look like 09-10 or 57-58 (just weaker). That didn't come to pass as the Niño was basin-wide. I think that had a major impact on the lack of Nor'easters and unfavorable MJO pattern as it's largely SSTAs that determine tropical convection cycles, along with AAM as you mentioned.

As the warmth in Region 1.2 has evaporated and cooler SSTs have emerged to the south, we now have a more Modoki look. I wonder if that's the reason for the more favorable pattern showing up on the models.

On 2/2/2019 at 9:19 PM, uncle W said:

 

1995-96 went a head of 2011 on Feb. 16th...2011 had 57.2" but 1996 went a head with 60.9"

2010-11 got the good pattern back too late...we had a very cold end of March with snowfalls on 3/21 and 3/24 in Westchester, but it was too late to get more than a few more inches. I remember there were still patches of snow on 4/1 in Dobbs Ferry, and there was some snow/sleet that mixed into a rainstorm in mid-April. That winter did not want to go. Had 3 huge storms from 12/26-1/26...there was 25-30" on the ground after that and then again after the 2/2 ice storm. I think I measured 26" in my front lawn. It was a glacier too; I still remember the moon reflecting off the snowpack as I went to visit a friend. 

2 minutes ago, Mark McIntyre said:

Yeah that mixing line is fast approaching, it's pretty much right on top of EWR - SI - JFK

Only like a half inch at most here, not even fully covering the ground, kind of disappointed. Could easily bust on the 2-4" that was predicted, although the sleet line will slow some as it encounters the colder air to the northeast. It's only 26/20 at LGA and colder here in the residential areas north of Pelham Pkwy so I'm a little worried about ice. 

30 minutes ago, Mark McIntyre said:

Hopefully that bodes well for me just across the Arthur Kill River - my temp is down to 27°F.

Ripping pretty hard in the Bronx.

5 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

I dunno, now that I'm cleared to get out and do outdoor things again I really want to go for a bike ride so snow isn't what I'm hoping for. I went for a short hike in the woods yesterday and now my brain is screamin' for the type of therapy that only a mt bike ride in the woods can provide. C'mon spring  

Thank god your health is improving. Your recovery rate seems to be impressive.

20 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Nice steady light snow this afternoon.

The number of days it has snowed has to be almost as impressive as the totals and depth.  

It's hard to fathom how it snows 5 days a week (if not more) up here while 150 miles south can't buy flakes.  But even in this event there's a sharp gradient from NVT to even C.VT.

I do hear it from friends though that get around a bit skiing... that even the ski areas like MRG and Sugarbush have half the snow on the ground when compared with Stowe and Smuggs.  A former poster here was saying the difference between Stowe and Sugarbush is eye-opening... like 1500ft snow depth at Stowe (40"+) is more like 3000ft down there.  There's a sharp gradient even in the mountains along the Spine.

Is Lake Champlain frozen yet?

1 minute ago, weathermedic said:

Let’s not forget about the years when things were “EPO driven”

Well they were: 13-14 and 14-15 were driven by a highly favorable PAC