nzucker

8 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I still think the ice there has weakened quite a bit though...there's still some yellows mixed in there. But that area will def be crucial to how low 2018 goes. There isn't going to be much melt in the solid purple areas of the CAB since that region has seen very little melt ponding so it's going to come down to the "ESS arm". The central CAB was actually getting snow fairly recently....unlike 2015 where it was getting crushed by an epic high pressure all July. This is why I think it will be tough to get into a top 5 extent year.

It's weakened somewhat but not NEARLY as much as the 7/27 map showed; that was almost certainly due to satellite error. That image had <75% concentration over a very large area. Seeing the new map, I doubt it melts completely in the East Siberian arm.

13 hours ago, csnavywx said:

Worldview seems to corroborate the satellite data. Lots of soupy/ragged looking ice over there. Typically symptomatic of a reduction of floe size as it thins.

It looked relatively fine up until the 15th or so, but deteriorated quickly after that.

I may have been right...looks dramatically different today, more similar to before. These satellite maps are prone to short-term error due to clouds and other variables. Ice is much higher concentration now:

Greenland still seeing near record high surface mass balance for July, however. Very benign melt season there, so far.

58 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Wow. A friv post...must mean something exciting is happening in melt season. 

 

All joking aside, I still appreciate the friv analysis...he even gets sh*t at neven's forum for not being alarmist enough. 

 

But i I agree with friv here...this is pretty impressive in the ESS. It's going to melt down far...more than what we thought possible even a few days ago. This is probably a combo of weak ice growth there and some intense warmth that happened early in July which wiped out the snow cover on the ice. The snow cover on the ice is an underrated aspect...esp in FYI. 

 

We may challenge a top 5 here...I think top 3 is still out of reach but a top 5 is possible. Esp in area. I think a top 3 in extent will be hard. 2015 compacted a lot and we would need to see big compaction again. Esp since the CAA is still pretty icy compared to the low years. 

Are we sure that isn't satellite error? It seems like an awfully big change from just a week or so ago, not sure if that's possible.

58 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No, 2009, 2013, and 2014 have fallen behind the melt pace of 2018...we're pretty close to 2017 right now actually. I am expecting though that we will stall pretty good since we've now almost melted out the Kara/Hudson and the pattern in the CAB is pretty good for the ice for the foreseeable future. We're way behind years like 2007 and 2012 or 2016 so there's basically zero chance to have something like a top 3 finish. I don't have the exact numbers in front of me at the moment, but I'll post them as soon as I have a chance.

Based on where things stand right now, I'm expecting a result a little lower than a 2013/2014 but higher than last year. We'll see if that changes.

Looks above most recent years on Bremen extent:

On 7/16/2018 at 9:51 AM, ORH_wxman said:

There's a decent amount of really low concentration ice in the Hudson and Kara right now so I expect extent loss numbers to still remain strong over the next week, but the area numbers should stall pretty good with the big reverse dipole. I'd expect then we eventually see an extent stall once Kara/Hudson melt out.

Can you post the area numbers again, Will? Are we still close to 2009/2013/2014?

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

These derelicts are scum .  The country has finally awoken after a horrific 8 years.. with a booming economy and unemployment at all time lows. At any rate,I hope they take this guy in jail , take him and then they gas chamber him 

The country has awoken? You mean coddling a Russian dictator who has supported Assad gassing thousands, has annexed Crimea illegally, permits no dissent? 

Trump says "no collusion." Then how come there were secret meetings in Trump Tower? How come Roger Stone was talking to Guccifer 2.0 (who was known as early as July 2016 as a Russian operative)? Why was Trump telling Putin to hack Hillary's emails the same day the Russians invaded DNC servers? "Russia if you're listening, we want those 30,000 emails"

Hmm...I wonder what's happening. If you still support Trump, you're embracing a traitor. 

10 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Not angry just flabbergasted that people think this was an incident or that its ok to let hard drug dealers selling to minors back on the streets with no supervision.  

The main standard for bail is whether the accused will show up to court. The Bail Reform Act of 1966 states that the preference is for release on recognizance; the prosecution bears the burden of proof as to why a person should NOT be released since the individual is innocent in the eyes of the law. 

Selling street-level quantities of cocaine and running away from the police is hardly a crime that merits pre-trial detention. There was ZERO violence alleged in the criminal complaint. 

And you can't always easily distinguish between drug dealers and drug users. Many drug users sell from time to time in order to support their habit. That's the problem with the criminalization of drugs: it breeds a horrible black market economy in which addiction is intertwined with sale. The simple solution would be to offer more maintenance programs for harder drugs and to completely legalize marijuana and psychedelics. You'd see the drug cartels evaporate within days.

4 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Unfortunately, this looks like it may be another case of, “ why on earth was this guy on the streets”. Didn’t see a ton on him yet but what’s been released shows he’s no stranger to police or criminal activity.

 

He got in trouble for trying to sell a small amount of coke, then hid in the woods and made the police look around for an hour. Not exactly someone that should be locked up for the rest of their life. Tragic incidents happen, but pre-trial release without cash bail and rehabilitation should still be the rule. Just because something crazy happens once in a while doesn't negate the overall benefit of less incarceration, less cash bail, more alternatives to jail time etc. Remembering that "innocent until proven guilty" is the fundamental rule of our justice system. And that we shouldn't be trying to lock people up, quite the opposite. 

4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

F ukinj liberal judges, geezus that needs to end letting these scumbags with long violent records on the streets. 

He'd been charged once before with a minor drug deal. Come on man. 

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

All models agree the extreme heat is situated over the west. Some of It spews east every now and then like early next week but eastern canada is relentless squashing any sustained attempt to ridge east of the Miss river. Great summer pattern. 

12z ECM builds a nice trough into SE Canada with sub 0C 850s over Hudson Bay towards the end of the run. Could be on track for a similar pattern as 2013 with the scorching first half of July, then cooler weather late July/August. Of course the strength of the WAR will determine how far east that cooler airmass makes it.

3 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

KFIT hit 89F today.   Kimball’s Ice cream for lunch FTW.

I just mentioned Kimball's to my boyfriend last night when we were having ice cream in the Village. Nothing can beat Kimball's.

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

First check on area this season....looks like we're in the middle of the pack though skewed a little more toward the lower melt years in the post-2007 environment. We're about 30k above 2017 and about 150k below 2014.

2012's freefall was already well under way...2018 is currently 500k above 2012 at this point. There's still time though....for example, 2007 was still only 25k lower than 2018 at this point, but it went nuclear over the next 10 days losing nearly 1.5 million sq km of area...an average of about 150k per day. Not sure 2018 has the weather forecast in its favor to do anything like that.

 

For anyone new in here, we usually track SSMI/S area in June because it has a much higher correlation to the minimum extent in september than June extent does. The reason is meltponding...the SSMI/S sensors get fooled by meltponding so the area concentration falls. Because of this, it is giving us a measurement of meltponding which is an excellent predictor of minimum ice extent. I'll usually make a prediction of final minimum extent and area based on the area numbers at the end of June. They have worked quite well over the years with a notable exception in 2016.

Doesn't the weather forecast look increasingly hostile though with a strong ridge over the Siberian side? Even if it's not a dipole, won't that degree of warmth (like +9C 850) promote melting?

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah JSpin, nothing on radar but had some good sheet rain of the small droplet type earlier here at the mountain. 

Suns out now.

Any snow left on Mansfield? What is the stake reading?

5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

The ensembles are tryng to split the PV and have one half over the Kara region and the other half over Baffin Island...with the latter weakening and becoming less of an influence. We see some weak signs of blocking trying to get into Greenland from the east as you said.

I'd def be in the "wait and see" camp though. We've seen this a lot in recent summers, where the ensembles try and do something, but every time, the PV just sort of reconsolidates over the CAA/Greenland corridor. I'd want to see a good dipole get within 7 or 8 days on the ensembles to start really thinking about a different pattern this summer. I'd also add that the GEFS are more enthusiastic about a dipole pattern than the EPS.

It still looks like just a moderate melt pattern unless the PV over Baffin Island loses all influence. It's rare to get such a widespread high pressure extending from the Beaufort to Greenland, as we had in 2012. The usual response to ridging over Alaska is lower heights and associated PV in the Baffin region.

The PV has been very stubborn in recent summers. With early indications that it is re-establishing in an environment of lower overall hemispheric heights, I remain skeptical of a 2012/2007 melt unless we see major changes.

On 5/23/2018 at 11:18 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah recently, it's been colder over the arctic versus the first week of the month.

 

There looks to be a dipole still trying to set up as we head into June, but the sig is def weaker than it was a few days ago on the Euro ensembles....it shows more low pressure poking up from the CAA and also hanging back down from the Kara to try and go over the pole. It still has the general low pressure over the Kara area and the general high pressure over the Beaufort, but the high is covering less area than before. If we end up with some low pressure over the pole with a smaller high over the Beaufort, then the sensible wx impact of the pattern will be greatly diminished versus a true dipole blocking pattern. For bigger impact, I want to see that high sprawl to the east toward Greenland the low pressure over the Kara shift a little more toward the Barents....really start churning that fram export and also help the wind come more off Siberia.

 

 

It's hard to get a strong high pressure over Greenland with the near constant vortex near Hudson Bay. Some of the long range GFS runs have shown a ridge poking into Greenland from the east, however. Do you think the PV may finally drop further south and be forced out of the Baffin/Hudson Bay region?

11 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

We don't have good real time meltponding data unfortunately. We'll prob have to wait until early June when Schroeder gives an update (he's the guy who authored the original paper in 2014 on melt ponding).

The month stated off warm in the arctic, but the melt ponds typically don't get going until later in the month in the peripheral areas....and the past 7-14 days have not been very warm in the peripheral areas like the Kara, Laptev or the Beaufort where it's been an ice box. The Chukchi has been the exception...so that might be where to watch. The Laptev may try and get a good shot of warmth this week over the next few days.

Will, the maps I'm seeing are showing relatively low heights over the Arctic and overall much cooler temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere compared to recent extreme warmth...this has a weak dipole signature but still looks chilly over the North Pole and parts of the Canadian Archipelago/Greenland...the rest of the Arctic would probably be near average in this pattern:

1 minute ago, nzucker said:

To be fair, May looks to be running significantly colder than March or April globally. The decrease in NH temps is especially apparent. We'll see how far the dip in the NH goes with the progged 500mb pattern. So he is correct that the globe has experienced some modest cooling recently. 

Global SSTs have also decreased to around 0.19C anomaly after being as high as 0.3C anomaly earlier this year...so that is possibly driving some of the cooling, as well as the pattern over the Northern Hemisphere, which is favoring lower heights in the mid to upper latitudes.

5 hours ago, Vice-Regent said:

By and large it's not cold where people live. Here is the GFS global temperature reanalysis for the current and upcoming period.

To be fair, May looks to be running significantly colder than March or April globally. The decrease in NH temps is especially apparent. We'll see how far the dip in the NH goes with the progged 500mb pattern. So he is correct that the globe has experienced some modest cooling recently. 

On 5/7/2018 at 3:20 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

It certainly depends upon ones location.  If you live in a rural area that's not populated by manicured lawns, its much easier to let the lawn be what it wants to be.  Once get get into the more established cities/towns it's much harder and you sort of go with the flow since you don't want to be the odd man out.  I certainly don't like douse my lawn in chemicals but I do like it to be relatively green/healthy.  Some weeds are acceptable but a lawn dominated by weeds is not.

It's amazing that our society values an arbitrary definition of a "well-manicured lawn" over the safety of our planet and our children. Why should we be allowed to spray carcinogens on a lawn that eventually end up in everyone's drinking water? The values of a hypercapitalist society, encoded in terms such as "property value" and "curb appeal" are all about appearance over substance. Those who do not march in conformity with the hypercapitalist American Dream by failing to mow their lawn are shunned from the community as lowering property values (just like blacks moving into the neighborhood, right?)

Besides, even if you want a "well-manicured" lawn, there are other options. Fish meal and kelp are highly effective organic fertilizers. A backyard compost pile can also help feed a lawn or garden (though we have municipal composting in NYC). There are plenty of compromise options for maintaining a neat, postage stamp lawn that while not ideal due to being monocultures, are better than Roundup or Lesco.

On 5/21/2018 at 11:40 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Euro ensembles are showing a classic dipole pattern setting up in early June...low pressure over Kara/Laptev region with high pressure over the Beaufort and CAA. If that verifies, we would have a good jump start to the melt season in June for the first time in years.

How does melt ponding look at this point in May?

8 hours ago, snywx said:

Out of curiosity how - was the NAO during the snowicane?

Very negative. Feb 2010 was one of the most -NAOs on record.

49 minutes ago, 25thamendmentfan said:

Thanks for your answer and of course I agree with you.

I'm glad we reached a compromise position. Sometimes stating views in a clear fashion helps people understand and ultimately agree.

I think the beauty of the Weather Forums is that it is NOT monetized. That allows pure meteorology to reign. Once you start courting money, things change. What if Exxon Mobil wants to display ads on the climate forum? Do we allow that?

The realities of the modern world mean that money is a factor. But there are other ways to get it besides running insidious ads filled with malware and inescapable loops. I'd support many other means of raising funds.

Having constant pop-ups on the screen dilutes the site's content, and some are linked to malware. Do YOU want malware on your computer?

Furthermore, some ads like the Amazon prize wheel, which I've seen elsewhere, are IMPOSSIBLE to get rid of.

I'd be fine with a donation drive, small fee, fundraiser, etc. But constant pop-ups disgust me.

Why do we need pop-ups at all?

Pathetic cash grab.