nzucker

That's an awesome pic. We had some great looking storms last year. Very classic mid-level features on those three of 12/26, 1/12, and 1/27. I have a feeling we'll see a lot more SW flow events this coming winter.

Since most of us are in here... in a short summary what kind of winter are we expecting this year? Will we have a neg NAO like this year?

I think most people are expecting a -NAO. Consensus seems to be we'll have a decent winter with a weak Nina, -QBO/low solar, and -NAO cycle. No one really knows though, that's why weather is fun!

Here was my snowpack:

High was 86.8F, about 2F above average. Unfortunately, it's another mild night despite the clear skies, so the AC has gone back on.

FAIR

73.4/62

I agree, The only place of relative safety is being underground. When you're dealing with EF4+. In the deep south many people don't have basements and so they have to take their chances in their home as far away from the outside walls as possible. The decision to try and drive away from a tornado is a very personal one. Several people died in Picher, OK when they drove out of town trying to get away from the tornado.

I'd still rather race it in a house without a basement.

Besides, the whole public is told to "stay home and hide" so you're not likely to hit a lot of traffic and probably make a quick escape.

When I got in the car it said 7* but as I went through the hollow at the bottom of my hill it went down to 0*!

Not surprising...the low in town here was 13.7F but I'm sure some of the frost hollows in the woods behind my house, which reach an elevation over 400', got well into the single digits. The difference in snowpack retention in the woods is also incredible: there's nearly 18" back there while around town it's more like a foot snowpack.

I agree 100%.. I can do without the wind. Even without the NAM most models print out a good 8-12" snowfall for the area.

You're going to have very nice ratios up there. Even down here in Southern Westchester at 350' elevation, I'm thinking at least 12:1 ratios for this storm since 850s are like -6C, and I expect the storm to occur overnight which should hold temperatures in the mid 20s. This is another cold storm like 12/26, albeit with less wind, which should promote better dendrite formation. I'm liking the chances for 8-12" for NYC metro including the extreme NW areas...you might see a little less QPF than LI, but you'll be vastly colder.

3" here now ..still snowing here ...some moderate bursts.

I was down as far as POU today and they had 4" when I left at 2:30 PM. I thought the most impressive snow was around northern Dutchess and southern Columbia around 4:30 PM. They probably got a good 6" total.... Also they still had a good amount of the old Noreaster snow left...can't be sure but maybe 4, 5, 6 inches survived the torch.

10" reported in Somers in Northern Westchester County...

4" here in Dobbs Ferry.

Bottom line is ...Governor Rendell was right about the whimpification of America. LOL

You live in a Northeast city ... guess what...it snows and you deal with it. You have to expect to be inconvenienced after a 20"+ Blizzard! You cannot expect NYC to have the resources to make life normal within 24 hours after such a storm.

And it simply wouldn't be cost effective for NYC to even attempt to be prepared to make things normal so fast after such a blizzard. Its not worth it when you only get a few storms like that per decade. (yes two this year, but that was a freak thing) There would be no point in developing that level of "snow fighting" infrastructure for infrequent events like this. You gotta look at the cost/benefit analysis.

I agree that people expect too much of the City in terms of plowing/clean-up immediately following the storm, but there needed to be a greater effort made to allow emergency vehicles to pass. Fire trucks and ambulances were delayed by hours trying to get to calls because of the poor plowing, and three people died as a result. That is inexcusable.