nzucker

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Rain in the winter sucks

I'm still waiting for the pattern change that some people are still expecting.

Considering you're on 5.5" for the season, that may point to the fact that it's not happening as planned. We may get a snowy period late January and early February, but that's probably not going to make up for the futility of the rest of the season. And late Feb/March snow aren't the same since they melt so quickly.

10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Last year was a great ending, but the snow melted quick with the strong March sun....10-11 rocked because the 30-40 day pattern occurred during the heart of winter...

10-11 was my favorite winter in Westchester....had 70" and it piled up fast since it was from late December to early February. The SWFE on 2/3 put a sheen of ice on a 30" snowpack, very memorable. That storm hit Chicago extremely hard if I remember correctly.

Last year the best storms here were the Equinox one which dropped about 8" and then the one in early April that dropped another 6". The other 3 March Nor'easters were mostly nuisance events here in the Bronx.

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Not time to give up but it’s getting late early.   Anything good remains a week plus away.  The euro weeklies are much more bullish. Have to hope that verifies 

It's just that our opportunity for snowpack is declining rapidly. All of the winters where we amassed a good snowpack had pretty much started by now...10-11 had Boxing Day, 13-14 had the 1/24 storm and 2/1, 14-15 had the 1/21 and 1/26. If we don't see a large-scale pattern change soon, we'll lose the best part of climo and have a scenario like last year.

51 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

BTV's final forecast.  

Pretty darn uniform.  

Pretty much the same map as every Euro run for the past 5 days.

Wow, big hit for my old stomping grounds in Middlebury. 17" is a high-end SWFE.

9 hours ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

The pattern flip started today  ( the 10th has been opined on in here and the source region has changed , so that looks like it will work). As I said last week the risk for this weekends system was East of us not West.

I agree with the above , that`s not cutting. The 2 dates I posted in here 7 days ago were the 13th and 20th - the 13th heads off to our S and the confluence and placement of the TPV in Canada wins out.

But that was always an option. 

We aren`t getting a big cutter and that TPV is on the move as - 50 air is showing up in E Canada in the L/R. 

We are heading into a very cold period ( colder the deeper we go ) . But a " pattern change " doesn`t mean it has to snow. BN`s have now returning and the 19 - 23 period is the next favorable period for a system in the area.

But I would caution that not every good pattern produces snow , cold and dry is always an option , however one thing is evident warm and wet are over for the time being. 

-50C 850s? Where? Never seen that before....usually the coldest the PV gets is like -40C.

21 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The problem doesn’t really start til March 1.  As we’ve seen the last few years climo argues against any big storms for the coast that late.  Despite the fact models on several occasions showed something huge 1-2 days out we’ve had 2-3 massive busts in that span 

We had 8" here on March 21st last year and 6" on April 2nd. Not sure what you mean.

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

 

Nice Ginxy!

Here's a photo that isn't mine, so don't cross post anywhere.  Just something that showed up on my social feed by @insta.argo on instagram.

Looking at Smuggs from Stowe and showing how fluid the atmosphere really is.  Large scale waterfall.

That's incredible, great work.

17 minutes ago, Save the itchy algae! said:

The sun has far more power on our planet than CO2, it borders on ridiculous to suggest otherwise.  That study is not powered well, and I'm pretty sure that institution has been known to push agendas for funding purposes in the past.  The only thing that has a remotely higher impact on us than the sun are things like drastic changes in oceanic composition and planetary events like super volcanoes and meteors.  I don't mean to come across too critical, you just seem too set in your ways.

Yes but the changes in solar output are much smaller in effect on radiative forcing than the cumulative influence of rapidly rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Ugly pattern coming up with an array of cutters that will continue to generate plenty of rainfall and mostly mild temps. 

Guidance is all over the place with some looking worse than others and many swapping places. However it's looking more and more likely that any snows will hold off until the 2nd half of December.

Highs are mostly in the low to mid 40s this week. That's actually below average for the time of year: climo is 45-50F in late Nov/early Dec. People forget because of the early snowfall, but the heart of our winter is Dec 15-Jan 15.

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

the first week of some great cold and snowy Decembers were mild...some years the first two weeks...1959, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1966 had a mild period in the first part of December but they all had snow on the ground Christmas morning from storms between the 11th-24th... after one of the coldest few days in November in a long time and a snowstorm 4-6", what is there to complain about....I'd rather see a nothing first half of December and a good second half...

People forget that average highs on Dec 1st are around 47F in Central Park. Climatology favors the second half of the month for significant snowfall. 

In 2010 we had a very cold December but waited until 12/26 for our first significant storm when Central Park got 20" on Boxing Day.

First week of Dec looks Niña-like in the means with a prevailing -PNA and western trough...may be due to AAM loss. Then we wait..

Full list of spotter reports, anyone?

Just now, NJwx85 said:

Sorry but there was no excuse for not having plows and sanders ready in places that were forecasted to get several inches of snow before any changeover. 

If anything things actually turned out a bit better by staying snow longer because the freezing rain would have made things even worse than they already were. 

Temperatures were pretty marginal for freezing rain in the City and right near the Coast. You don't get much accretion in urban areas with 30-32F ZR. 

Guys, NYC had never had a 6" snowfall this early since records began in 1869. How easy is it to forecast an event that hasn't occurred in 150 years of observation?

Granted, the NWS probably did hug the GFS thermal profiles too much, as opposed to favoring the colder NAM/ECM guidance. And we certainly know the GFS tends to be too warm in CAD situations with +PP to the North. Low dewpoints and a more northerly flow than expected were also factors. 

But I don't think anyone should be blamed too much for this one. Early season storms are notoriously hard to prepare for, as we saw with 11/8/12 and 10/29/11: the combination of leaves on trees and roads, the public forgetting how to drive in winter conditions, and a reluctance to forecast aggressively near the coast all play a role. The amount of trees down is almost certainly due to the foliage, and that was a major factor in snarling roads. Timing was also the worst possible with a normal morning that encouraged people to come to work and then a brutal evening rush in heavy snow.

Let's stop the blame game: Mother Nature simply showed us that she's still boss, even in our highly connected, digitized age.

2 minutes ago, triniiphone said:

.64”? Lmao 

There’s a solid 5” right over in bedstuy and all they got was half an inch? Smh lol

 

I think that's liquid equivalent...it's probably around 5" of snow or so.

Measurement is in a slight drift on garbage can, so I'd say we have about 5.5" here in the Pelham Parkway area of the Bronx. Very windy at times with near whiteout conditions, treacherous indeed--saw a large SUV totalled on my street from skidding out.

Heavy snow in Bronx.

10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm in the mountains of NE PA for the weekend and my pond froze over (only at the top though) and we had our first snowflakes of the season Friday and Saturday with snow squalls that coated everything with the sky only partly cloudy lol.

Wow 2013-14 for you was like 1995-96 for us and February 2015 was one of the coldest months on record for pretty much all of us.  Similar to February 1934 for here, except no -15 lows lol.

We have a house in Lake Como, PA in northern Wayne County. Were you near there?

Great outlook, Isotherm...in line with much of what I've read here. What do you think of 04-05 as an analog, as well? Or 68-69/69-70?

17 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

Yesterday we drove from our area to the coast of Maine north of Portland.  75% plus leafed out at least the whole way.  A 3-7" heavy wet snow would cause quite a bit of damage right now.  Here is a drone shot from this afternoon over my area.  Newfound Lake on the left..  This is looking north towards Plymouth NH

So green for this date.

On 10/14/2018 at 10:24 AM, dWave said:

I think the White Plains record is the most impressive. It can get pretty cool there espically since its not actually in the city of White Plains

Strongly agree...HPN at 400' well north of the City on mostly flat ground.

Incredibly warm for 1am on Sept 18, 75F in the Bronx.

Half of the Earth's animals have been lost in the last 50 years. Is that what we consider a healthy planet?

On 9/11/2018 at 10:24 AM, skierinvermont said:

No the earth won't be *fine* unless your only standard for *fine* is that some form of life persists until the sun explodes. What total nonsense. Fatalistic nihilistic nonsense. The earth already isn't *fine*.

 

 

Also humans absolutely have the power to control the climate and prevent ice ages by emitting CO2. Likewise we could cause cooling by capturing CO2 which would be more expensive but feasible. We've already drastically altered the planet in almost every way imaginable including the climate. The idea that we don't have the power to affect climate is un-scientific garbage.

Great thoughts, Skier. Only about 1/5 of our planet is left in wild state, and even that term is debatable given the influence of human-induced climate change on all ecosystems. As the recent USA Today article on Yellowstone National Park illustrated, even the so-called wildernesses are experiencing widespread consequences: a month less of snow cover, 50 days less of temperatures below 0C at the entrance to the Park. Invasive species may cease to be invasive given the rapid changes in climate that are causing migration of many species to the north and higher in elevation: one study in the Andes found certain species moving up to 100m up in elevation every year. 

The recent Guardian article discusses the changes that have occurred in the so-called Anthropocene 6th Extinction. Humans have caused the loss of 83% of wild mammals, and 60% of all mammals are livestock.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/may/21/human-race-just-001-of-all-life-but-has-destroyed-over-80-of-wild-mammals-study

On 8/14/2018 at 8:05 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Leaning 02 03 76 77 right now.  

I also like 2006-07 and 1986-1987.

UAH

June: +0.21C

July: +0.32C

Notable warming in the Southern Hemisphere and Tropics, perhaps a result of the emerging El Nino conditions.