GrandmasterB

Thanks everyone for all of the commentary on the 18Z runs. Great last minute trends! It’s been fun tracking with you fellas! I hope everyone enjoys the storm. Going out to get wood set-up then pouring a drink!

This is what we need with the rates. If they are this nuclear we should all be fine!

I think this one much more so than years past. 30 miles will make a huge difference. I doubt any model has that nailed.

This is why I took 8” at KMDT in the contest. I’ve been screwed too many times by the NAM thermals being right in the end. I hope I’m wrong. As Blizz pointed out this one is a bit different set-up going in so hopefully bonkers rates and the extreme cold overcome the warming up top.

I’m really interested to see how this plays out. With the intense rates, does that keep the snow going longer? Also, right before a flip to sleet it should be absolutely pounding snow. 90 minutes could make the difference between 7” and 10”. /ninja’d by nut

Still about 9 hours of snow for my locale on the NAM. I think that should be 10” verbatim. Then if the sleet is real, that would make one heck of a pack. Honestly, I don’t dislike it. Of course I want 16” of powder, but that’s looking unlikely at this point.

Big test for the NAM here vs. the GFS and now the Euro with its slightly colder outcome. I wonder if some of this will be rate dependent when the sleet line approaches, we should absolutely be ripping snow. 6Z Euro:

I asked him that on X because I can read the NAM too.

MU spiking the ball with the 18Z NAM and saying he didn’t go conservative enough.

18Z Euro for those not lurking in the MA

GFS vs. the NAM boys who we takin'??

I hope so too but we've been burned by NAM thermals leading the way before.

If you toggle 0Z and 12Z it's definitely a small improvement at 12Z for us southerners. Central is a solid hold, maybe a hair drier but really just noise. This 12Z run falls in with other guidance either holding that sleet line off or giving us an extra 30 miles or so of breathing room.

Posted by mitchnick in the MA and I completely agree, "With the euro to go (and obviously that could change things quite a bit) this run (12Z) has been the first time I saw legit improvement across the guidance and not just grasping at noise level changes. Until now I felt each run was a very slow bleed in the wrong direction but 12z was an actual improvement across everything so far imo."

Canadian is a tick colder. Almost GFS like in its progression. Would love to see the Euro do the same here.

It's interesting output because Northern Virgina snows for 9 hours if you look at the 3-hour increments but the Kuch map has them at 3.5 inches? I get the warm nose thing but the thump was still quite impressive. Bizarre output to me.

12Z NAM is a big win for our area. Precip arrives faster, absolute wall of moisture, just when we start to flirt with mixing we get a little coastal influence to save us. Great run!! /ninja'd by AccuChris and MJS!

We don’t know. Read the NWS write-up. They discuss this in some detail with the comma head potentially over us (GFS).

Outside of the Euro which brought the mix line further north, the rest of the 6Z runs were a noticeable improvement. ICON significantly colder, NAM better up top, RGEM improved. If we are moving to a compromise towards the GFS, that’s a big win!

Blizz going lower than MAG...surprising.

Canadian looks just a touch better to me at 0Z vs. 12Z. Still has the primary into Pitt and sleet into Lanco, but I thought the progression was an ever so slight improvement.

official, and I hope I lose by a lot! User Prediction canderson 12.8 2001kx 14.5 nut 13.9 Festus 17 Bud Bundy 8.2 SnowPlowGuy88 22 MJS 15.5 Yardstick goes somewhere 19.3 Jns 17.5 Carlisle 19.59 paweather 16 pawatch 16.4 ITT 14.2 717lover 13.1 Subliminal87 16.87 Wmsptwx 0.01 MAG 15 Blizz 12.3

Blizz is in the lab cooking up this number

Here's what I have so far. Pretty aggressive with the lowest total being 12.8 outside of my brilliant hedge against a nightmare scenario: User Prediction canderson 12.8 2001kx 14.5 nut 13.9 Festus 17 Bud Bundy 8.2 SnowPlowGuy88 22 MJS 15.5 Yardstick goes somewhere 19.3 Jns 17.5 Carlisle 19.59 paweather 16 pawatch 16.4

C’mon Blizz you know you’re going at least 15”