GrandmasterB

Cool cool cool

All good! It’s really a blend of models in the forecast and the GFS was way too aggressive on snow for the southern parts of York/Lanco. It didn’t help that the Euro bled north run after run. I don’t think the Euro or GFS performed all that well for this event from just 72 hours out. I just hope we get paid back with a north trend when we need it!

I was the one who commented about the NAM and yeah Canderson would have measured 0.0 if this was right:

I’ll get out of bed for sure, but if it’s rain I’m heading right back

Nowcasting is not what it used to be, but in this situation it may come into play given how tight the gradient is forecast to be between a trace and 4”. We have seen models underestimate WAA, but we’ve also seen them underestimate evaporative cooling. Will be interesting to see play out and hopefully everyone gets a nice snow tomorrow.

Ukie has measurable down to the MD line. My goal for this system (IMBY) is two inches. Seems plausible at this time.

I’m not putting a lot of weight on the 78 hour NAM thermals. Could certainly end up being right, but it’s not close to the euro output.

12Z GFS colder on the front end and overall better for us southerners. True central smoked. Noticeable move to the Euro.

Agreed. A little snowier for the Sunday one and less snowy for the mid-week threat, but hard to complain for early December.

Well that escalated quickly! It’s certainty nice to have something to track. Thanks Blizz as always for the maps.

Now that the models run at the correct times I guess I’m back in. This (snow chasing) hobby is a lot of investment and often times disappointing, but I couldn’t quit it even if I tried. Here’s to another season riding it out with everyone. I hope it’s a cold and snowy one for all of us!

Radar for Lancaster county looking not great.

Pro tip: if you check models tonight or tomorrow for possible flakes on Saturday then you’re really only going 5 months without checking models for snow.

A highlight of the season ITT!

For context MU is a great met up here, but typically very conservative.