Jns2183

I'm not great reading soundings, butt the different severe parameters the HRRR puts out on a pretty map certainly intrigued me. Figured it would be good to look since I don't Mammatus clouds around here all to often, let alone at our distance to the storms. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

This the HRRR sounding at 6z just as storms are entering west shore area. I fully expect to regret this but I give this a 60% maybe 70% of overachieving in storm voracity in immediate Harrisburg area Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

@canderson If you look west quick before dark you can catch a glimpse of some severe weather fun clouds pushing in. Would suck landing at HIA from the west right now. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Dont see this everyday with two tvs, that blue wind coloring. There's going to be lots of 60+ guest up there. I'm sure roads and power will be god awful mess with all the trees there and that huge area of wind. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Wow, that section of line in northern pa is starting to bow out. Almost seems to be constantly refiring on its outflow boundary pushing it's movement almost southeast Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

My forcast for Thursday night hasn't changed since late Tuesday, early Wednesday. 70% and between 0.25" and 0.50" of rain. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

22Z HRRR from 6z till 10z radar Total precipitation at 10Z Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Go back to 12z and look at all the short range models for 22z and how they got there, haha. Drunks throwing darts. The HRRR was by far the closest just with a delayed evolution. That's the good news, cause it seems to have ramped up the strength when the line arrives with each passing run. Also I swear the GFS has worse verification rates for localities in its first 6 hours then it does 24-72 hours when dealing with convection. The FVS3 was supposed to rectify that somewhat except it got very blond and ditzy and tends to go it's "unique" path more than was hoped for. We shall see. It's a crap shoot this summer. Imagine, just imagine if major snowstorms were predicted like summer convection Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

With our recent discussions I thought this was interesting. Found it on Twitter from Jeff Frame, a meteorologist attending the one major conference right now. It's just one slide, but it's from Russ Schumacher from Colorado State who helped develop a key MLP forecast tool that the WPC has used since 2021 forecasting heavy rainfall. Basically it's the twin nemesis of forecasting, low level moisture & boundaries. What I would give to be able to watch all these on YouTube. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

That's a low top thunderstorm that's for sure. 22k is nothing. What I would give for a good 50k+ supercell to meanador through with a 100+ CG strikes a minute Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

It's going to barely hit camp hill. Harrisburg will be lucky for a drop Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I'll be in the Boston metro area for a week come Sunday Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I'm already under hazardous weather outlook for the rest of today and tonight. Bring it!! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I'll take 0.50" and be smiling Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

When 80 miles separates 12" from 2" with a mess in between Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Don't sleep on overnight as the boundary comes north Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Thursday night I still have 70% pops. Looks like the further south the better till then. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

There was that airport on the Persian Gulf two days ago that hit 109/90 or something close to that. It's heat index was 156 Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

We really haven't seen many of those long track overnight mesos with associated cold pool in our area this year. They always could be a wildcard in years past. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

I'm still at 30% chance. Their AFD does talk about chance as well Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Hey if anything that position of attack is new this summer. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

From that complex over WV Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

We do best with absolutely no expectations Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

At 0.28" Between the smoke and now moisture I'm pretty sure we will have some early morning fog to go along with haze. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

You have me watching the radar more for your home then my home anymore Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk