BretWx

12Z HRRR just through 7AM Sunday.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/Prob_Precip/idss-map/mapgen.php?office=GSP&summary=true&pointpreferences=GSP&ptype=prob_ice&product=high_end&2026012312

All of the overnights are very concerning.

I imagine we'll have an Ice Storm Warning hoisted for a lot of us by this afternoon at least. Almost now-casting time w/ looking at what's going on out West, etc.

Ouch.

This would make it worse. At this point we need to be prepared,,, even a few days ago... for a possible severe ice storm... one we haven't seen in 20 years or so. Barely any snow is on the table at this point. It's coming down to ZR and SLEET.

IMO for our area an Ice Storm Warning should go up soon. FRAM ZR with the 18z GFS still showing .70in IMBY.

I am no expert nor meteorologist. Just watching things play out since I was 15 or so. Watch the short range. Don't get bummed out. This thing is moving slower than we thought. At this point we have 1.5 days until things start falling. Be it snow, ice, sleet, etc.

Nope.

Extremely confused by rain likely at 15 degrees.

New update to our WSW: ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total sleet accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations between three tenths and three quarters of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph across the mountains. * WHERE...Northeast Georgia, Western North Carolina, and the South Carolina Upstate. * WHEN...From 7 AM EST Saturday morning through 1 PM EST Monday afternoon.

Also, to note, the WS Watches just went all the way down to Columbia.

Well, that just about sums it up. Hopefully there's a lot of sleet in here. Otherwise, catastrophic.

Ice Storm Warnings going up to our west replacing the WSW. I wouldn't be surprised if we see the same thing here.

The view off my back porch right now:

Looking to next weekend. GFS is trying to throw something beautiful our way. So, we'll have something to track again next week! At least.

Also:

FWIW - SREF PLUMES MEAN for KAVL went from .85in this morning to 4.83in SNO. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

Single digit lows in the next days after are not going to help. At all.

ZR FRAM .90IN IMBY. YIKES.

12Z GFS starts precip HR54 through HR90. All ice, an hour or so of rain at the end.

Just an example/reminder of what even .30in of ZR looks like.

12Z ICON is just... nasty w/ ZR.