Natester
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Everything posted by Natester
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Paducah KY ASOS reporting a pressure of 977 milibars at 11 AM CST.
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Yeah, Michigan doesn't need another ice storm after just 9 days.
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12z HRRR has the low on Monday at 975 milibars in Iowa.
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Last time a storm system that was below 980 milibars traveled through Iowa was on March 1, 2007 where the low deepened to 978 milibars just outside of Vinton. Winds were strong but not damaging. Same day as the blizzard in western Iowa and the Enterprise, AL EF4 tornado.
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One thing I noticed for Monday is that on the 18z ICON temps are below freezing for a good chunk of NE Iowa, making a huge swath of freezing rain. All other models have Iowa well above freezing for Sunday night/Monday. EDIT: 0z ICON shows all of Iowa well above freezing for late Sunday night into Monday.
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Very slight ice accretion on powerlines. Moderate freezing rain again from the showers. No sleet. Temp at 32F.
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Moderate freezing rain here. Temp still at 31F. Not really accreting well at all, it's dripping from the powerlines, which is good. EDIT: Temp now at 32F with a dewpoint of 30F.
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Had a brief period of freezing rain. It wasn't heavy hence it didn't run off. Railing on the front steps is a bit icy but mostly wet. Temp at 31F and dewpoint at 27F.
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Well, it's already 31F here based on the observations from several PWS in the Cedar Rapids area. The HRRR and the NAM had Cedar Rapids in the upper 20s at this time. EDIT: Cedar Rapids Airport reporting a temp of 31F at 10 PM.
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Early look at 22z HRRR is showing a slight north tick in terms of above freezing temps in Iowa.
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DVN pulled the trigger for an Ice Storm Warning for the row of counties just to my north. Winter Weather Advisory here.
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We have a generator. It's just that with the wind the house will get dangerously cold. That's what I'm really worried about.
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As expected, 12z EURO a tick to the south, but not by much. With forecast temps at 31-32F, much of it is going to run off.
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What i'm hoping for is for temps to not go below 31F so that there isn't rapid ice accretion. Any lower than that and we have problems.
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12z GEFS mean 2m temp even further south, in line with the GFS. Other models have trended south too.
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12z GFS is running late.
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Still very great disagreement on thermals with this system yet it's only a day out. Anticipating some ice here as much of it will run off with the very marginal temps and the depth of the warm nose.
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0z UKMET another tick north. Looking unlikely that we will get ice here. That's perfectly fine with me since I hate ice.
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Yeah if below 31F. I have seen heavy freezing rain run off of power lines when the temp was 31F and the dew point in the mid 20s (January 10, 2020).
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Thanks. Much of that freezing rain is going to run off with temps so marginal.
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Can you post the 2m temp map at 21z Wednesday time?
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18z UKMET a tick north from 12z.
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I should mention that the 18z NAM 12k is a bump to the north. EDIT: 18z RGEM also a tick north. EDIT 2: 18z ICON also a tick to the north.
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18z HRRR waaaaay too far north with the warm temps and way too fast with the lead low. Has the warm front along I-80 in Iowa. We'll see what the NAM says.
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RAP way too fast with the lead low. Yeah, not going to happen.
