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Weatherdude88

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  1. Weatherdude88

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    The CAB and CAA are going to cause many tears these next 2 months. Weather models are forecasting favorable conditions for ice retention going forward. It's going to be awesome.
  2. Weatherdude88

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    Despite all of the hyperbole and wish casting, 2019 will not be in the top 3 lowest sea ice minimums on record in area or extent. We may not end up in the top 5 in a sea ice area metric (looking at UH AMSR2 and NSIDC daily data and extrapolating). The regions that will matter at the end of the 2019 melt season are the Central Arctic Basin, East Siberian sea, Beautfort sea, Greenland sea, and Canadian Archipelago. For the most part, we are lagging the highest melt years in these regions (There are 5 years that lead 2019 in all these areas combined). There is too much high latitude ice in the critical regions. All the subjective interpretation of data will not translate to reality, no matter how many members reiterate it. By the end of the first week of August, it will become evident that 2019 will be ordinary, as it relates to sea ice minimums over the last decade.
  3. Weatherdude88

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    Looking at the raw daily data, 2019 NSIDC sea ice area is now the fifth lowest value in the data set. For 6.23, the daily value is 7,787,023 kilometers squared. There was a loss of 102,855 kilometers squared from the previous date. 2019 now has 9,356 kilometers squared more sea ice area than 2007, 236,390 kilometers squared more than 2012, 32,029 kilometers squared more than 2010, and 8,144 more than 2016. edit: For the years before 2008, I should of been adding 310,000 kilometers squared to the value for a pole hole adjustment. I added 310,000 square kilometers to 2007, which would give 2019 9,356 kilometers squared of sea ice area than 2007.
  4. Weatherdude88

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    You make a statement saying 'arctic extent is in first place' then you post a graph that shows arctic basin extent. These are not the same thing. If you look at UH AMSR2 high latitude sea ice area and extent within the arctic basin, there is significantly more ice at high latitudes within the arctic basin than the highest melt years. This data set also only goes back to 2012. Your above post is a classic example of 'cherry picking' to fit an agenda. UH AMSR2 CAB extent UH AMSR2 CAB area
  5. Weatherdude88

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    UH AMSR2 extent is clearly not the lowest value in the data set. UH AMSR2 CAB area shows significantly more high latitude sea ice than 2012 and 2016. It should also be noted that the UH ASMR2 data set started in 2012.
  6. Weatherdude88

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    Looking at the raw daily data, 2019 NSIDC sea ice area is still the third lowest value in the data set. For 6.20, the daily value is 8,039,945 kilometers squared. There was a loss of 67,579 kilometers squared from the previous date. 2019 now has 142,879 kilometers squared more of sea ice area than 2007, and 264,543 kilometers squared more than 2012. Losses continue to be below average. The next closest year is 2016, which has a 66,540 kilometers squared lead. NSIDC sea ice extent is now the 5th lowest for 6.20, with a value of 10.427 millions of kilometers squared. 2019 has greater sea ice extent for the date, than 2010,2011,2012, and 2016. Jaxa sea ice extent is now the 6th lowest value for 6.20.
  7. Weatherdude88

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    ASMR2 CAB sea ice area is once again one of the highest values in the post 2012 data set. Area losses basin wide have also been below average for the last 2 days.
  8. Weatherdude88

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    NSIDC sea ice extent is now the 7th lowest value for 6.17, with a value of 10.696 millions of kilometers squared. 2019 has greater sea ice extent for the date, than 2010, 2011, 2012, 2016, 2017, and 2018.
  9. Weatherdude88

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    The northern hemisphere NSIDC daily value for 6.14 is 10.842 millions of kilometers squared. NSIDC uses a 5 day trailing mean. The 6.14 value is also the highest value in the past 5 days. The preceding 4 days bring the average down for the 5 day trailing mean. For that graph, they are adding the values on 6.10,6.11,6.12,6.13, and 6.14, then dividing by 5, to get the 10.77 millions of square kilometers. We have had 3 straight days of gains in the NSIDC sea ice extent data set. The daily value for NSIDC sea ice extent for 6.14 is the 5th lowest for the date. https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/about-charctic-data/
  10. Weatherdude88

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    In previous northern hemisphere sea ice melting seasons, we have had years that start off with more sea ice extent and area than the previous melting season and end with a record low (2007). We also have seasons where we have low sea ice extent and / or area at maximum and end up not in the top 5 (2017). There are different dynamics and different weather patterns at certain points during the melt season, in all of these years. Perhaps we should not look at any any sea ice area or extent numbers during the melt season since they are all irrelevant? Please provide scientific data, of peer reviewed literature to show CAB sea ice area is "irrelevant" during June of the melt season for the final minimum value.
  11. Weatherdude88

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    I did not remove any legends from the CAB ice area graph. If you check the link in my initial CAB post, you will see the link brings you to AMSR2 sea ice area for all different regions of the northern hemisphere cryosphere. There is one legend at the bottom for all the different regions in and around the arctic. I wanted to focus on the CAB, since that is the region historically, that contains significantly more ice than all other regions at the conclusion of melt season.
  12. Weatherdude88

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    Thanks for the question. NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice area is in 3rd place for the date. Not shown on your above graph, 2019 has a 20,473 kilometers squared lead on 2007, and 2019 could fall to fourth place tomorrow. While I believe area is a better indicator on the current melt season, there also remains the possibility certain regions that are being counted as open water flash back to life later on this season. Let's not also forget the high latitude sea ice area inside the CAB.
  13. Weatherdude88

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    For 6.14., NSIDC sea ice extent is now in 5th place with a value of 10.842 millions of kilometers squared. 2019 now has greater sea ice extent for the date than 2018, 2016, 2012, and 2010. There have now been 3 straight days of gains in the data set. One more day of gains, or a loss of less than 27,000 kilometers squared, will put us in seventh place for 6.15.
  14. Weatherdude88

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    For 6.11.2019 NSIDC sea ice area for the (Beaufort + Central Arctic + Chukchi + East Siberian Sea + Laptev Sea) added together gives us an area of: 2016 5,890,973 square kilometers 2012 5,962,622 square kilometers 2019 5,977,631 square kilometers 2019 is currently in 3rd place in NSIDC sea ice area for the above areas. Not only is 2019 slightly ahead of 2012 and 2016 with respect to sea ice area. It also has sea ice positioned at higher latitudes within the inner CAB that will be more difficult to melt, compared with post 2007 melt seasons. Additionally, the upcoming weather pattern does not look like it is conducive for record arctic sea ice melt.
  15. Weatherdude88

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    There have been significant sea ice area losses at lower latitudes of the arctic for the past 2 days (6.10 and 6.11). However, AMSR2 CAB and NSIDC CA ice area look robust. There may be a significant slow down in basin wide losses during July, when the more vulnerable areas of the ice pack have melted out.
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