Weatherdude88

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  1. Northern hemisphere snow cover is well below average this winter. The snow water equivalent (the total volume) is significantly above the 1998-2011 average. The higher latitude regions that have snow cover, have a lot of it. As we approach the end of the 2019/2020 freezing season, we may have more ice and snow volume, in harder to melt areas at higher latitudes, than all years in the previous decade. There has been significant focus on the lack of snow extent cover, at lower latitude and easier to melt regions, even though we have near record snow/ice volume in the more difficult to melt regions. We may have an extended 2019/2020 freezing season. The 2020 northern hemisphere sea ice melting season may get off to a slow start.
  2. forkyfork, Instead of being pessimistic and ‘butt hurt’ by data showing the most sea ice in 15 years, perhaps you will find the use of your time more constructive, if you have a mind set of optimism, about a possible sea ice recovery for this year (I predict 2020 will be a recovery year). Current projections, using average melting seasons from the historical NSIDC sea ice extent data set, give us a minimum between 4.8 - 5.0 millions of square kilometers for the 2020 northern hemisphere sea ice extent minimum (This would be quite the recovery).
  3. For 2.2.2020, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice extent value is 14.42 millions of square kilometers. This is an increase of 116,000 square kilometers from the previous day. NSIDC sea ice extent is in 15th place for the date. 2020 now has more sea ice extent than 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 for the date. The next 4 closest years are 2009, 2008, 1996, and 1991. In 3 days, 2009 will have 24,000 square kilometers less sea ice extent, than the 2.2.2009 value. If 2020 gains more than 160,000 square kilometers over the next 3 days, we will fall to 16th place for the date.
  4. For 1.23.2020, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice extent value is 14.026 millions of square kilometers. This is an increase of 94,000 square kilometers from the previous day. NSIDC sea ice extent is in 13th place for the date. 2020 now has more sea ice extent than 2005, 2006, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 for the date. Jaxa sea ice extent is also in 13th place for 1.23.2020. If the anomalous sea ice extent gain trend continues, we will fall to the 15th lowest value in the next several days.
  5. The NSIDC daily area minimum value was September 4th (one day away from being August 24th), and conversely the lowest NSIDC daily extent value looks to be September 17th. The 2019 NSIDC sea ice area freezing indeed started on September 4th. For 9.19. we are now 352,343 square kilometers above the 9.4 daily minimum value. NSIDC sea ice area finished comfortably in third place. 2019 at minimum, had 408,194 square kilometers more sea ice area than 2016, 642,974 square kilometers more sea ice area than 2012, for the minimum daily value in the melt season (83,590 square kilometers less than 2007). DMI ice volume data is also showing the minimum at the beginning of September. I suspect PIOMAS will show the same trend when released. Extent data sets did decrease since the beginning of September; however, area and volume metrics have increased throughout the month. We have a near record compact cryosphere at the start of 2019 sea ice freezing season (very different from 2012 and 2016). I would not be surprised if we see some record extent gains at some point over the next several weeks. At the very least the cryosphere is in better shape entering the freezing season compared to the lowest minimum years. When extent and area metrics where in first place for the date, I predicted the slowdown in sea ice loss. I thought the slowdown would happen sooner, and be more pronounced. All 2D sea ice area metrics look significantly better than 2016 at minimum. DMI sea ice volume has 2019 well ahead of 2016. Looking at different 2D area data sets, and PIOMAS already having the second lowest sea ice volume minimum on record, I am skeptical of this data.
  6. The single daily NSIDC sea ice area value for 9.6 is 3,012,376 square kilometers (pole hole adjustment). This is significant gain of 52,449 square kilometers from the previous day. We are now 111,973 square kilometers above the 9.4 NSIDC sea ice area minimum value. The 2019 NSIDC sea ice area melting season has concluded. We are now in the freezing season. Historically, we would need anomalous and unprecedented sea ice area losses to extend the sea ice area melting season. The sea ice area melt rate in 9 out of the last 10 years would not get us to a new area minimum. If you remove 9.4 from the daily NSIDC area data set, 8.24 would have been the lowest area value for the 2019 melting season.
  7. High resolution AMSR2 data showing area and extent gains in the Central Arctic Basin, Beaufort Sea, and now Canadian Archipelago. Note: The data for the attached graphs only has 8 years of data. 2019 will finish comfortably in fourth place, for NSIDC and JAXA sea ice extent values.
  8. There is nothing "odd" about NSIDC sea ice extent, and sea ice does not exhibit "behavior". If you remove 9.4 from the daily NSIDC area data set, 8.24 would have the lowest daily area value for the current melting season. The weather dispersed and then compacted sea ice these last two weeks. The freezing momentum was enough to get us within one day of having a record early sea ice area minimum. The current distribution and orientation of sea ice will not allow for much more compaction. There is now more freezing than melting in the arctic. This is consistent with the significant 59,524 square kilometer increase in area, looking at the daily value for 9.5. The freezing season is here.
  9. The daily NSIDC sea ice area loss was 17,585 square kilometers. The daily value (not 5 day trailing mean) for 8.29 is 2,981,805 (3,010,805 with pole hole adjustment) square kilometers. We are now 104,378 square kilometers above the August 24th lowest value for the 2019 northern hemisphere melting season.
  10. For 8.29, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice area 5 day trailing mean value is 2,966,727 square kilometers (pole hole adjustment). This is an increase of 21,145 square kilometers. Momentum has now been established in the direction of the freezing season.
  11. For 8.29, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice extent value is 4.647 millions of square kilometers. This is a decrease of 15,000 square kilometers. NSIDC sea ice extent is now in fourth place for the date. 2019 now has 956,000 square kilometers more sea ice extent than 2012, 140,000 square kilometers more sea ice than 2016, 8,000 square kilometers more sea ice than 2015. 2019 now has 48,000 square kilometers less sea ice than 2007, 69,000 square kilometers less sea ice than 2011 for the date. We still have our first candidate for the 2019 northern hemisphere sea ice minimum (historically unprecedented and unlikely for minimum this early). We have seen sea ice extent gains in 4 of the last 7 days in the data set. We are now 19,000 squared kilometers above the August 22nd value. If 2019 does not lose at least 65,000 square kilometers over the next 2 days, we will fall to 6th place for the date. If 2019 loses more than 65,000 square kilometers of sea ice, but less than 117,000 square kilometers over the next 2 days, we will fall to 5th place for the date.
  12. For 8.28, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice area value is 2,945,583 square kilometers (pole hole adjustment). This is an increase of 8,066 square kilometers. 2019 NSIDC sea ice area is in third place for the date. Area increased, however there was a minor reduction in extent, most likely due to compaction on the Atlantic front.
  13. That did not go quite as planned, For 8.28, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice extent value is 4.662 millions of square kilometers. This is an decrease of 21,000 square kilometers. NSIDC sea ice extent is in third place for the date. 2019 now has 904,000 square kilometers more sea ice extent than 2012, 42,000 square kilometers more sea ice than 2016. 2019 now has 31,000 square kilometers less sea ice than 2015, 61,000 square kilometers less sea ice than 2007, and 137,000 square kilometers less sea ice than 2011 for the date. We still have our first candidate for the 2019 northern hemisphere sea ice minimum (historically unprecedented and unlikely for minimum this early). We have seen sea ice extent gains in 4 of the last 6 days in the data set. We are now 34,000 squared kilometers above the August 22nd value. 2019 could fall to 6th place in the next 2 days, if the trend continues.
  14. From the daily Bremen ASMR2 6.25 km grid, there has been a significant expansion of cryosphere in the Beautfort and East Siberian seas. The area near the Laptev sea looks more solid, with possible addition gains. It appears there is a noticeable reduction on the Atlantic front (however, the pack looks more solid). I would be surprised when the NSIDC sea ice extent values are posted, there is not at least a 25,000 square kilometer gain for 8.28. In other news: After days of significantly below average sea ice extent losses, JAXA has decided to join NSIDC sea ice extent at the gains party. For 8.28, the JAXA northern hemisphere sea ice extent value is 4,339,440 square kilometers. This is an increase of 373 square kilometers.
  15. For 8.27, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice extent value is 4.683 millions of square kilometers. This is an increase of 29,000 square kilometers. NSIDC sea ice extent is now in third place for the date. 2019 now has 898,000 square kilometers more sea ice extent than 2012, 148,000 square kilometers more sea ice than 2016. 2019 now has 147,000 square kilometers less sea ice than 2007, 155,000 less sea ice than 2011 for the date. We still have our first candidate for the 2019 northern hemisphere sea ice minimum (historically unprecedented and unlikely for minimum this early). We have seen sea ice extent gains in 4 of the last 5 days in the data set. We are now 55,000 squared kilometers above the August 22nd value. 2019 could fall to 5th place in the next 3 days, if the trend continues.