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Weatherdude88

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Everything posted by Weatherdude88

  1. The Arctic Oscillation has averaged negative since the beginning of August. The average for August and September is a -.232 deviation. We also appear to likely be in store for another La Nina winter. The PV has been sliding towards the Siberian side of the arctic. If this trend continues, 2022 may see a melting season with thicker ice on the Siberian side of the arctic than the previous melting seasons. The freezing season is looking quite robust for generating thick ice at high latitudes. If we can average a negative AO for DJF, we could be looking at the robust northern hemisphere cryosphere entering the 2022 melting season is the last decade.
  2. 2020 was the second lowest sea ice extent minimum value on record. This is why 2021 northern hemisphere multi year ice ranked as second lowest at minimum (0 - 1 year). Now that the freezing season has started, the remaining ice is now all multi year ice (greater than 1 year old). So if we finish next melting season in a similar place, multi year ice may be in approximately 12th place. The above statement, highlights the recovery from the 2020 melting season VS. the 2021 melting season.
  3. Just looking at the last several years, 2018 will average a higher positive AO for the months of June, July, and August. 2021 will end with significantly more sea ice extent and area at minimum. The 2020 sea ice minimum was the second lowest in the satellite record. If we finish in 15th place, this would be the biggest year to year place change of any season on record. For 2021, we started much lower than 2018. There is also more than one pole on planet earth. Going to be very interesting in here, over the next 2 weeks.
  4. We are above the 2000 - 2019 year average in global sea ice extent and area. Looking at 1978 - 2021 (43 year satellite data record), we are slightly below the 43 year average. Remember, the 70's, 80's, and 90's had less sea ice area and extent in the southern hemisphere than most years in the 21st century. Global sea ice extent has close to 1.75 million more square kilometers than the lowest years for the date. Here is global sea ice extent with the 1981 - 2010 mean. Keep in mind if the median included 2011 - 2020, the mean line would be significantly lower. 2011 - 2020 contains most of the lowest northern hemisphere sea ice extent minimum years.
  5. Several years see 100k or less of sea ice area melt from now until minimum. We are 112k above the minimum. We are within the realm of possibilities. We just need the below average losses to continue. It is cold and snowy in the Western Arctic. Some of the concentration may flash back in the Western Arctic over the next several days.
  6. NSIDC daily area minimum will most likely be 8.23.2021, with a value of 3.389173 million square kilometers. The 8.25 value is 3.501343 millions of square kilometers. We are now 112,170 square kilometers above the minimum value. This would be the earliest daily area minimum in the satellite record. Bear witness to history. Meanwhile, Antarctic sea ice area is approaching the all time record high.
  7. 2021 daily NSIDC sea ice extent is in 11th place for 8.24. We are 1 - 3 days behind 2009, 2010, 2013, and 2014. It is possible, we will fall into 15th place within the next week.
  8. NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice extent looking quite robust, compared with recent years. Global sea ice area is above the 2000 - 2019 average.
  9. For 8.11.2021, NSIDC sea ice extent is 10th place for the date. NSIDC daily sea ice area recorded a gain of 60,434 square kilometers and is in 10th place for the date.
  10. For 8.8.2021, the NSIDC sea ice extent value is 6.134 million square kilometers. This is a decrease of 50,000 square kilometers from the previous day. We are now in 9thplace for the date. Extent is now 63,000 square kilometers greater than the 8.5 (3 days prior) value. The weather pattern is in the process of transitioning to a pattern favorable for sea ice retention.
  11. Here are is peer reviewed literature on how CO2 causes a negative greenhouse effect in Antarctica. This paper claims CO2 radiates heat to space in parts of Antarctica. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015GL066749
  12. For 8.7.2021, JAXA sea ice extent shows an increase of 18,541 kilometers squared. Extent is now in 7th place for the date. For the month of August this century, this is the earliest increase on record. The weather is now transitioning to a pattern favorable for sea ice retention. NSIDC sea ice extent shows a 81 k gain. The finish of this melting season is going to be epic.
  13. Slater Probabilistic Sea Ice extent showing 5.15 million square kilometers on September 18th. It's very possible NSIDC sea ice extent minimum will be greater than 5 million square kilometers, given current NSIDC area and compaction at high latitudes. Remember, we are ahead of 2013 in area for the date. 2013 had a minimum of 5.10 million square kilometers of extent.
  14. NSIDC daily area is still in 12th place for the date (10K gain today). 2013 will be going through a bit of a stall the next several days. We are now only 2 -3 days behind some of the 2000's years. Compaction is now above the 1980's average.
  15. Weenies root for sea ice minimums, just like snowstorms during the winter. They cry when a storm does not give them enough snow. The same is true here. They use pseudoscience, grasp at straws, and refuse to face reality of what is actually happening. My comment was about this melting season. Yet another person putting words in my mouth.
  16. Northern Hemisphere NSIDC sea ice compaction still above the 1990's average. With more high latitude compact ice surviving in the high arctic, parts of the Beaufort, and other seas, 2021 may be the start in a series of recovery years. A negative AO would not only be helpful to snow weenies who live at mid latitudes in the northern hemisphere, but could add additional thickness to the already surviving compact sea ice pack. We want a negative AO for December, January, and February especially.
  17. Let's look at the average surface pressure in 2016. Does this look familiar? It should. The 2016 summer melting season featured a positive AO. Let's look at 925mb temps. Here is 2016: Here is 2021: Upper level temps were significantly cooler (especially in the Western Arctic) in 2016 despite a similar pressure configuration in 2021 over the Central / Western Arctic.
  18. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034019 https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/31/4/jcli-d-17-0067.1.xml
  19. No more ad hominems. I have been crystal clear with my posted chart on solar insolation, and on how the Western Arctic has missed the boat on melt momentum. Lower latitude vulnerable ice was preconditioned this melting season. Compaction is above the 1990's average. August cliffs happen when the ice pack is not compact. It was inevitable where this melting season was headed a month ago. Let's look at the enthalpy of fusion. We need 333.55 KJ of energy to melt 1 KG of ice. We are now past the point of adding enough energy (solar insolation) to significantly impact the trajectory of this melt season in the high arctic. We needed a diffuse ice pack, with high potential flow (pressure gradients), and it to be May 20th - July 20th (solar insolation). Solar insolation is about to fall under 400 watts / meter squared. It's almost August, and the sea ice in the Western Arctic is on or near the coast. Regardless of the weather, the slow down will continue. Do not put words in my mouth. I never mentioned anything about PIOMAS. I pointed out how you posted a navigational aid (HYCOM) and used it as a climate tool. When you make a mistake, you need to own it, not create a strawman. If you do not understand my posts, please re-read and check your comprehension.
  20. For 7.24.2021, the northern hemisphere daily NSIDC sea ice area value is 5.095177 million square kilometers. This is an increase of 33,851 kilometers from the previous day. 2021 is now in 12thplace for the date. There is now more sea ice area than 2007, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020. We are 5 days behind 2006, 2008, 2009 and 2014. There is still significant sea ice area in the Greenland Sea to be melted out in all melt years. In 2021 we have already melted the lower latitude easier to melt ice in the ESS and Laptev regions. High compaction, higher latitude difficult to melt ice, and decreasing solar insolation. The slowdown will continue regardless of the weather. The direction of the melting season was inevitable a month ago. Instead the weenies were bringing up isolated weather events at lower latitudes, and focusing on seas that do not have a significant impact at minimum. Tik Tok......Tik Tok....
  21. It gets better and better . Weenies are now posting navigational aids and saying the ice thickness looks rough (it’s not a climate tool). Even their website states “Disclaimer: This 1/12° Global HYCOM+CICE system and web page are a demonstration and are not an operational product." https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/POLAR.html It is well known not to use Hycom as any climate tool for sea ice thickness. https://tos.org/oceanography/assets/docs/22-2_chassignet.pdf
  22. For 7.23.2021, the northern hemisphere daily NSIDC sea ice area value is 5.061326 million square kilometers. This is an increase of 6,227 kilometers from the previous day. 2021 is now in 11thplace for the date. There is now more sea ice area than 2007, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016,2017,2018, 2019, and 2020. 2010 has a significant area drop on 7.24. We may fall to 12thplace tomorrow. There is still significant sea ice area in the Greenland Sea to be melted out in all melt years. In 2021 we have already melted the lower latitude easier to melt ice in the ESS and Laptev regions. High compaction, higher latitude difficult to melt ice, and decreasing solar insolation. The slowdown will continue regardless of the weather. The direction of the melting season was inevitable a month ago. Instead the weenies were bringing up isolated weather events at lower latitudes, and focusing on seas that do not have a significant impact at minimum. Tik Tok….. Slater probabilistic ice extent showing 4.84 million square kilometers of sea ice extent on September 12th.
  23. 2021 featured a dipole for extended periods in April, May, and briefly in June. This is why transport out of the arctic was significant during these months. The ice remaining in the Kara, is also a classic sign of this since it was on the cool edge of the dipole.
  24. 2021 northern hemisphere sea ice compactness is above the 1980's, 1990's, 2000's, and 2010's average. Anticyclonic weather patterns will not have the same effect on extent, that we have see with dispersed years. Solar insolation is rapidly declining. The high arctic has missed the boat for preconditioning and melt momentum. By the end of July / 1st week of August, solar insolation is no longer the deciding factor. Time is up. Tik Tok...Tik Tok
  25. For 7.18.2021, Southern Hemisphere JAXA sea ice extent is the 39th lowest (5th highest) on record. Perhaps we will soon challenge the all time maximum extent and area values from the early 2010's.
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