Jackstraw

As of right now taking a quick rough average of a few of the supposed better model forecasts, they are putting the peak of daily death rates in the US is on or around 4/15 + or - a day.  Guess the old saying was right, there's only 2 things certain, death and taxes. 

  Got a call a "wellness" check call from my physician today.  Guess they have been pulling records of patients that can be high risk if infected and calling/checking for symptoms over the phone.  I was surprised by two things. 

  The first is that I was considered high risk.  I am 57 with mild hypertension but I also have Lymes disease.  Don't believe what some in the medical circles say that Lymes disease can always be cured.   After a 6 week intensive antibiotic treatment I finally tested negative (I kept the tick and it tested positive).  I've had 3 outbreaks of the disease since then, test positive, then antibiotics till I test negative.  So it can lay dormant in your system.  So I guess due to my age and the Lymes disease I'm considered as a high risk as I have an immunosuppressive disease. (Even though it's only immunosuppressive during an outbreak)

  The second was the fact my physician's office was being proactive doing this instead of waiting for patients to call in with symptoms.  My Dr. stated since it's going to be awhile for widespread testing his medical group decided it would be prudent to at least check in on their patients that would be considered high risk.  They have set up a page in their online portal and registered their high risk patients their so if you begin to feel ill you just go onto the portal, answer the questionnaire and the office will do a follow up call within 24 hours to do a remote assessment to see if you need to come to the office for further evaluation, treatment, and testing if available.  He said the wellness check calls will continue for high risk patients monthly until testing is available for everyone.  They are doing this on their own not from any official guidance.  I was very surprised by this.  Don't think it would be a bad idea if this was implemented at an official level.   And to be honest it does relieve a little underlying stress during this besides just kind of making you feel a little better that someone is looking out for you.

Forgot to mention yesterday, I have 4 really sick dogs.  Took them to the vet friday and I guess there's a really nasty flu like dog virus going around.  The irony.  But if you have a dog not feeling well it's not Covid19.  But it is pretty nasty.  Don't think I've seen dogs this sick before. 

Speaking of dogs you MN folks or anyone else here's a treat for the pandemic.....

https://www.busch.com/foster-a-dog-now.html

2 hours ago, Maxim said:

REALLY hope this verifies. Would probably be near record highs later in the day for some areas verbatim.

Getting there is gonna suck

Great night for stargazing and satellite spotting tonight at least around here.  Almost like a freezing cold late Jan early Feb night.  I think I remember those anyway lol.  Just things to do while we all stew 

https://www.heavens-above.com/

48 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Maybe for medical reasoning sure but this seems pretty across the board impacting everyone.

Yes the ACE2 receptor in which this virus basically uses to initially invade the human body knows no race, every human being has it.  

The only thing genetically that could be involved is very subtle genetic differences in a persons immune response.  Those differences would be so subtle that they wouldn't be passed down through a specific inherited lineage.  More often than not environmental factors would play the biggest role in such a very subtle difference from person to person.  Something as subtle (yeah using that word a lot) as years of high stress can cause it, exposure to whatever, the things you eat, etc.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/367/6485/1444

26 minutes ago, andyhb said:

We were very close to at least partially realizing those crazy HRRR runs from Friday afternoon/evening.

  That's why I agreed with what SPC did yesterday even though some were bashing them.  This event was on the extreme edge of several Jonesboro's occurring.  With low level inhibition still managed 22 tornadoes.  Could've easily been 3 times that.

7 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

If only it worked that way

But, hey, drive into IL (while you still can...lol).

Spring planting just commenced.  I completely forgot about IL lol.  But Alek Scarface just said the pipelines dry 

1 minute ago, snowstormcanuck said:

^including deliveries of legal weed.  Coronavirus can do what it wants, I'm floating, brothers.

Can you get me a Canadian ID?  

A friend in Charleston told me at some stores they have tape spaced 6 feet apart at the checkouts and plexiglass "sneeze" guards between the cashier and the customer.  Maybe Nwohweather can confirm since he deserted us 

4 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

I'm not prejudice and wasn't talking about who is or isn't getting it. Got it now? My idea may or may not hold any merit but I am trying to figure out why this has shown up so heavily in Metro Detroit? Iran is near the top of the countries with the highest number of infected. Just a pure conjecture on my part that perhaps Peeps travelling from that region of the world unknowingly carried it to SEMI? Could also just be the amount of automotive industry related travelers to/from China as well. Just for discussionary purposes only. Maybe you or others have some better Intel?

I get what you're saying but I think your logic is skewed.  Larger metro's are going to have higher infection rates simply due to the fact people are in closer proximity to each other, that's all it is.  I live just outside of a town of 7-8k people and 90 % of them live in houses, rented or owned which puts them a good distance from their neighbors.  The next closest towns are 10 miles away roughly the same size and the same type of neighborhoods.  Have to drive 25 miles to get to a decent sized city of 25k or more.  The bigger the city you tend to have more people living in say apartment complexes with people living right next each other, more people needing to use laundromats, cars parked right next to each other, hotels for travellers, companies that do business locally, nationally and globally amongst a myriad of other things..  Exponentially more chances of close contact because of the shear numbers of people puts everyone at a greater risk of infection.  A little town of about 1k 8 miles away from me had my counties second death last week.  The other one was in Anderson 25 miles away a city of 55k, but it also has 90 % of the infection rate of this county.  Anderson has a fairly large oriental community by Indiana standards.  Why is Anderson the hardest hit city in my county? Because they went to visit relatives over seas or vise versa? 

  It's easy to get side tracked looking for answers during this time but it's important now more than ever that people be careful about how their comments would be perceived especially relating to divisive subjects.  I'm sure you weren't trying to sound racist and were just trying to figure out a logical answer to your question.  But you instantly saw how your logic was perceived as something else.  We're all a bit on edge right now and it's going to get edgier.  We all just need to give a little extra thought to how our comments and actions will be perceived by others.  Not lecturing but you asked.  Everyone just needs to slow down a tick, not just on social boards like this but in general, and think a little longer before speaking.   

  Except for Alek, we all know he's an a... well lol

Just now, cyclone77 said:

Yep I've been out getting all the equipment ready.  Prob be cutting grass in about 8-14 days.  Ready, set, mow, yo!

I worked on a golf course for 3 years in college.  I want to build a 3/4 acre deck to cover my yard.  I hate grass, well that kind of grass 

4 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Getting frequent 40-45mph gusts.  MLI hit 49mph earlier.  

The landscape has dramatically greened up after all the rain, and fixed nitrogen from the lightning.  Trees have swelled buds.  Won't be long before leaves start popping out.

Same here except that fixed nitrogen thing lol.  Gonna have to mow soon.  Sucks 

Early north later south, I feel like a goal post, it is Sunday after all lol.

Just now, Hoosier said:

Same here.  My county also has the 2nd highest number of verified cases in Indiana now, not surprising since it is the 2nd most populated but it did start off slow.  I wonder how much is under the surface here because Marion county (home of Indianapolis) has 2x the population but over 8x the number of confirmed cases.  

Like you posted about Iceland.  If we don't have enough kits to test everyone the next best thing is random sampling.  Doesn't take a lot to get a grip on an overall average.  It's math, statistics, it works.  When you posted that I was like geez, simple genius lol. 

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Special weather statement for Cook county has the storm movement at 85 mph!

Did it get a ticket? lol.  As much as this system was a "dud" so to speak it certainly was a distraction from whats been going on, especially since the next couple weeks are looking dismal weather wise in our forum and health wise worldwide.  The big tornado in AR, I can't imagine with the stress of the last couple weeks and to have that on top of it, no way.  I really hope as we move further into severe season it stays dull as hell until we get a grip on this virus thing.  The weather nerd in me is screaming no but I can't imagine the stress of losing life and property on top of what's going on.  Hope we have a mellow severe season through June as much as that pains me to say.  

Cheers 

6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Gonna be near/over 500 US deaths today.  Really should be putting to rest any questions about whether restrictive measures were necessary.  

Should be a million infected "officially" worldwide by Tuesday or Wednesday.  Will probably see a 1 day of 1k deaths in the US by next week, far from over.  CDC reports 23k deaths from flu this flu season which runs from October to May the peak being February then dropping off drastically moving into March.  Confirmed Covid19 infection rates will climb as testing gets better so not a good analogue.  Deaths confirmed from the Covid19 infection are a better analogue sadly. With roughly 2200 deaths from this virus so far we've hit 10% of the flu deaths over this 8 month flu season in roughly 3 weeks with the curve continuing to rise.  Even comparing to the 2017-2018 analogous flu season where death rates were 2- 3 times the average, this virus is winning at the moment.  

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1116 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

INC075-290330-
/O.CON.KIWX.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-200329T0330Z/
Jay IN-
1116 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM EDT FOR SOUTHERN
JAY COUNTY...

At 1115 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Portland, moving east northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southern Jay County, including the following locations... College
Corner, Boundary City, Liber, Blaine, Collett, Bluff Point, New Mount
Pleasant, Salamonia, Brice and Como.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 4032 8522 4037 8522 4051 8480 4033 8481
TIME...MOT...LOC 0315Z 252DEG 53KT 4037 8499

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...0.00IN

24 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Lost power here briefly during a svr thunderstorm.

Lucky you lol.  That OFB from this morning settled just N of IND.  Every round of storms ended up riding it veering just to my south. It feels and sounds like garden variety Aug thunderstorms out there for the last 2 hours.  Heck of a light show.  Saw some models late last night ramp some storms up after midnight with the cold front.  Not looking too sporty now.

Lots of flooding reports coming out in central IN, stranded vehicles, water rescues.

10 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

Although things are going to fire up later than initially thought I still think a tornado outbreak is still in the cards. Option B would be later this evening these cells merge into a QLCS with embedded tornadoes which is fairly common with high shear, low CAPE events, typically in early spring.

SPC meso has the shear relaxing 15-20 KT's over the next couple hours.  I'm with you, may not be a major outbreak but it won't take much to light the candle.  The possibility of a long tracker in the PDS area is still there.  I also wouldn't be surprised to see a watch issued farther east later this evening along the warm front.  KIND has a growing concern for that possibility.

1 minute ago, nwohweather said:

No that’s June-August. Lol average high in May is still 83°. But then those summer months are 90+ daily with high humidity.

It’s been a very warm March here however. We’ve hit 85 quite often, however Sun-Mon were 60° and cloudy. You have to remember CAD leads to us getting “wedged” quite a bit in early Spring

Took me a year to figure out what CAD was when I moved there lol

Friend N of Noblesville recorded 2.00 inches of rain in 45 minutes  along with 1.5 inch hail before one of those stones broke his rain gauge 

Just now, nwohweather said:

Feel bad for Chicago, Detroit and Toledo who are mired north of the front due to convection and the Lakes. It’s 87° here in the Charleston area currently

You're about a month away from 95/75 every day with 90% humidity lol

Golf balls 15 miles to my south, they can have them.