snowlover2

0z NAM and 3K NAM

0z NAM for part 1.

WAA up for parts of west central IL through tomorrow morning.

That wouldn't be a terrible track a couple months from now.

SPC talking about it some in the day 4-8.

Well sure feels like fall now. Has to be about 25-30 degrees cooler now than this time yesterday. Only 58 right now.

Dayton hit 94 breaking the monthly record of 93.

They did add a 5% tornado area but from NE KS to SW/South Central IA.

Enhanced added to the IA/IL/MO border area for hail although a 5% tornado area added also.

Northern parts yes. Also almost forgot March 7,8 2008. Most of the northwestern half of OH were under a blizzard warning receiving 10"+.

Actually 2004 pre Christmas dropped 20"+ across the western half of the state so arguably that was the last real big one.

New day 1.

A few counties in NW IN just added to current watch. That seems pretty telling that it's not going as far south as expected.

The new day 3 disco is short but with strong wording calling for a MCS with possible destructive winds because of extreme instability and also saying upgrades being likely in later outlooks. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

And the disco mentions an upgrade to moderate risk might be needed later.

An enhanced area has been added to central IL for tomorrow on new day 2.

Warning just west of me with a 61mph winds reported at the Dayton Airport.

You are correct. It was a tornado watch from MO/AR to KY/TN. There were 2 PDS severe thunderstorm watches to the west of that earlier that morning. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/2009/ww0267.html

Also mentioned possibly a derecho. Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST-CENTRAL MN AND NORTHERN WI... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms with strong tornadoes and potentially widespread significant wind damage may occur from central Minnesota across northern Wisconsin during the mid-afternoon to evening. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Upgrading to Moderate Risk this outlook for the potential threats of multiple strong tornadoes and a derecho later this afternoon and evening. CAPE/shear/SRH parameter space in this region is forecast to be exceptionally rare for mid July amid a predominately zonal flow regime across the northern states. A convective cluster is ongoing across north-central SD aided by warm/moist advection around 700 mb along a pronounced baroclinic zone. 00Z CAM guidance had a decent handle on this activity earlier this morning and are consistent with a decaying trend through late morning as advection shifts east amid pronounced MLCIN as sampled by the 12Z Aberdeen sounding. There is a low confidence scenario that a strong enough cold pool is becoming established with this early-day cluster such that total decay does not occur. If this occurs, robust boundary-layer heating downstream may be sufficient for an increasing threat during the afternoon of strong to severe wind gusts. This could still yield a scattered to widespread damaging wind scenario, albeit in an earlier time frame than progged by guidance. The more probable scenario is for an extremely unstable air mass (MLCAPE > 4000 J/kg) to become established to from southeast SD through central/southern WI as the elevated mixed-layer overspreads surface dew points rising into the mid to upper 70s. A surface cyclone over central SD should track towards the Twin Cities through early evening. Strong low-level convergence near/northeast of this cyclone along the warm front should sustain surface-based storm development across central into east-central MN. Once initiation occurs, intense supercells will develop rapidly, with an attendant threat for all severe hazards including strong tornadoes amid 50-60 kt effective shear and 0-3 km SRH > 300 m2/s2. The very warm/moist thermodynamic profiles will also support generation of strong cold pools which should eventually yield a bowing, forward-propagating MCS across northern WI into parts of northern Lower and Upper MI. Strength of the vertical shear suggests the potential for intense bowing segments capable of yielding a derecho with significant severe wind gusts

Moderate risk now for parts of MN/WI with a 15% tornado area.

Still the one from yesterday. Seems odd they didn't update it today.

Latest from CPC has a high excessive heat area now for the mid MS Valley area.

Westward expansion of the extreme heat areas on todays outlook.

GFS/Euro both showing DP's getting into the 80's across a decent chunk of the sub which would certainly help verify this.

Hit 90 for a 5th straight day before the storms hit.