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snowlover2

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  1. Tornado Warning
    KSC097-190330-
    /O.NEW.KDDC.TO.W.0009.250519T0248Z-250519T0330Z/
    
    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
    Tornado Warning
    National Weather Service Dodge City KS
    948 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025
    
    ...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR GREENSBURG...
    
    The National Weather Service in Dodge City has issued a
    
    * Tornado Warning for...
      Northeastern Kiowa County in south central Kansas...
    
    * Until 1030 PM CDT.
    
    * At 947 PM CDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was
      observed near Greensburg, moving northeast at 30 mph.
    
      TORNADO EMERGENCY for GREENSBURG. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS
    SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!
    
      HAZARD...Deadly tornado.
    
      SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.
    
      IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris
               may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile
               homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
               businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete
               destruction is possible.
    
    * The tornado will be near...
      Greensburg around 955 PM CDT.
    
    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
    
    To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
    tornado is ongoing. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an
    interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid
    windows. If in a mobile home, a vehicle or outdoors.. Move to the
    closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.
    
    Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
    wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!
    
    &&
    
    LAT...LON 3751 9939 3773 9932 3767 9904 3749 9928
    TIME...MOT...LOC 0247Z 221DEG 25KT 3753 9931
    
    TORNADO...OBSERVED
    TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC
    MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN
  2. 2 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

    Peoria under a tornado warning. There was a confirmed SW of there.

     

    Confirmed now.

    Quote
    Severe Weather Statement
    National Weather Service Lincoln IL
    251 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025
    
    ILC057-143-179-203-192015-
    /O.CON.KILX.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-250319T2015Z/
    Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-Peoria-
    251 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025
    
    ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT FOR WEST
    CENTRAL WOODFORD...EAST CENTRAL FULTON...NORTHERN TAZEWELL AND
    CENTRAL PEORIA COUNTIES...
    
    At 250 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Glasford, or 8
    miles west of Pekin, moving northeast at 65 mph.
    
    HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail.
    
    SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.
    
    IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
             shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
             to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
             likely.
    
    This tornado will be near...
      Peoria, Bellevue, Mapleton, Marquette Heights, Bartonville, Peoria
      International Airport, Creve Coeur, and Pekin around 255 PM CDT.
      West Peoria and East Peoria around 300 PM CDT.
      Germantown Hills around 305 PM CDT.
      Spring Bay and Washington around 310 PM CDT.
    
    Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
    Norwood, Mossville, Kickapoo, North Pekin, Banner, Smithville, Alta,
    Peoria Heights, Powerton, and Bay View Gardens.
    
    This includes the following highways...
     Interstate 155 between mile markers 28 and 31.
     Interstate 474 between mile markers 0 and 14.
     Interstate 74 between mile markers 82 and 109.
    
    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
    
    To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
    basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
    building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
    a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
    yourself from flying debris.
    
    &&
    
    LAT...LON 4044 8982 4053 8998 4092 8964 4082 8945
          4074 8933 4061 8933
    TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 225DEG 58KT 4055 8979
    
    TORNADO...OBSERVED
    MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

     

  3. Small enhanced added for tornadoes and slight risk expanded.

    Quote
     Day 1 Convective Outlook  
       NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
       1255 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025
    
       Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
    
       ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
       ILLINOIS INTO FAR WESTERN INDIANA...
    
       ...SUMMARY...
       Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday across
       parts of central Illinois to western Indiana from mid-afternoon to
       early evening. Several tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind
       gusts will be possible.
    
       ...Synopsis...
       A strong mid-level low will move from northeast Kansas this morning
       to Lower Michigan by 12Z Thursday. A strong mid-level jet streak
       along the southeastern periphery of this area of low pressure will
       translate from northeast Oklahoma to central Illinois. Meanwhile a
       surface low within the left exit region of this upper-level jet will
       move from northeast Kansas to north-central Illinois. 
    
       ...Central Illinois into north-central Illinois and western
       Indiana...
       A rapidly changing environment is forecast across Illinois today.
       Extensive cloudcover is expected across the state for much of the
       day as low-level moisture streams north within a narrow corridor
       ahead of the cold front. However, by mid to late afternoon, some
       clearing is expected which may allow for some brief heating and
       destabilization across central Illinois. In fact, the HRRR shows
       what appears to be a dryline by mid afternoon. Mid-level
       temperatures will be very cold (-22C at 500mb and -4C at 700mb)
       which will allow for rapid destabilization with only slight heating.
       Once destabilization begins ahead of the cold front/dry line, expect
       thunderstorm development. The wind profile across central and
       northern Illinois will support supercells, but the intensity of
       these supercells will be modulated by the instability. 250-500 J/kg
       MLCAPE will likely be sufficient for supercells capable of all
       severe weather hazards. However, if greater destabilization occurs,
       such as shown by the 00Z HRRR/ 03Z RAP, an even more volatile
       environment would be present. 56-57F dewpoints would support 1000+
       J/kg MLCAPE which is very significant in the low-topped environment
       with an EL below 30kft. HRRR/RAP soundings show STP values around
       2-3 with very favorable low-level hodograph shapes. Therefore, in
       the higher instability scenario, multiple tornadic supercells would
       be possible with the potential for strong (EF2+) tornadoes. While
       uncertainties remain regarding dewpoints and the amount of
       clearing/heating along/ahead of the front, an enhanced risk upgrade
       seems prudent given the expectation for several supercells capable
       of all hazards and the conditional potential for a more volatile
       environment.
    
       ...Southern Indiana southward to MS/AL...
       Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold
       front across Indiana at the nose of the mid-level jet streak during
       the evening as rapid ascent and mid-level cooling erodes inhibition.
       Forecast sounding show an environment favorable for supercells
       capable of all severe weather hazards to persist across Indiana
       before eventually outrunning the instability somewhere near the Ohio
       border. Mid-level cooling will not be as great farther south across
       KY/TN and into MS/AL. However, greater low-level moisture (upper 50s
       to low 60s dewpoints) should compensate with a few scattered
       supercells possible with a primary threat of large hail and damaging
       wind gusts during the evening.
    
       ..Bentley.. 03/19/2025

     

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    day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif

  4. Janesville is PDS warned.

    Quote
    Severe Weather Statement
    National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
    752 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024
    
    WIC105-230115-
    /O.CON.KMKX.TO.W.0047.000000T0000Z-240623T0115Z/
    Rock WI-
    752 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024
    
    ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR EAST
    CENTRAL ROCK COUNTY...
    
    At 752 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
    located over Janesville, moving east at 40 mph.
    
    This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!
    
    HAZARD...Damaging tornado.
    
    SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.
    
    IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
             be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
             will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
             businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
             is possible.
    
    Locations impacted include...
    Janesville, Milton, Tiffany, Hanover, Johnstown Center, Avalon,
    Afton, and Emerald Grove.
    
    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
    
    To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
    tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
    to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
    building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
    a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
    yourself from flying debris.
    
    &&
    
    LAT...LON 4258 8918 4272 8917 4279 8878 4257 8878
    TIME...MOT...LOC 0052Z 260DEG 35KT 4265 8898
    
    TORNADO...OBSERVED
    TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
    MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

     

  5. Quote
    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
       Tornado Watch Number 320
       NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
       400 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024
    
       The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
    
       * Tornado Watch for portions of 
         Northern Arkansas
         Southern Illinois
         Western Kentucky
         East-Central and Southeast Missouri
         Northwest Tennessee
    
       * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until
         1100 PM CDT.
    
       ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
    
       * Primary threats include...
         Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely
         Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 75
           mph likely
         Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3
           inches in diameter likely
    
       SUMMARY...Intense supercell thunderstorms will continue to develop
       across the watch area through this evening. Several tornadoes are
       likely, some of which are expected to be intense. Very large hail is
       also likely, along with the risk for potentially significant
       damaging wind gusts.
    
       The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles
       north and south of a line from 45 miles north northwest of West
       Plains MO to 20 miles southeast of Paducah KY. For a complete
       depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
       (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
    
       PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
    
       REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
       tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
       area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
       threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
       and possible warnings.
    
       &&
    
       OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 316...WW 317...WW
       318...WW 319...
    
       AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
       surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
       gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 650. Mean
       storm motion vector 28035.
    
       ...Bunting
    Quote

    Tornadoes

    Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

    High (80%)

    Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes

    High (80%)

    Wind

     

    Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

    High (80%)

    Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

    High (80%)

    Hail

     

    Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

    High (80%)

    Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

    High (80%)

    Combined Severe Hail/Wind

     

    Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

    High (>95%)

     

    ww0320_radar.gif

  6. 1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

    There's a hatched 15% wind area on the day 2 outlook, owing to the uncertainty/varying scenarios but with higher end potential.

     

     Forecast Discussion
       SPC AC 120558
    
       Day 2 Convective Outlook  
       NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
       1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022
    
       Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
    
       ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
       THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO
       VALLEY...
    
       ...SUMMARY...
       Scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Monday across parts of
       the northern Plains, and from portions of the Midwest into the Great
       Lakes and Ohio Valley. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few
       tornadoes all appear possible. Some of the winds could be
       significantly severe (75+ mph) across parts of the Midwest/Ohio
       Valley Monday afternoon.
    
       ...Synopsis...
       A large-scale upper trough initially over the western CONUS will
       move slowly eastward across the Intermountain West on Monday,
       eventually reaching the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High
       Plains by late Monday night. An upper-level ridge should persist
       over much of the MS Valley into the Southeast, with another upper
       low forecast to remain over Quebec. Enhanced west-northwesterly
       mid-level flow should be present over parts of the Midwest into the
       Great Lakes, OH Valley, and Mid-Atlantic on the northeast side of
       the upper ridge.
    
       At the surface, a lee cyclone should consolidate over the northern
       and central High Plains by Monday evening, with another low over
       southern Saskatchewan. Rich low-level moisture should return
       northward across much of the northern Plains along/east of a front
       extending between the two surface lows. A warm front is also
       expected to lift northward across parts of the Midwest into the
       Great Lakes and OH Valley through the day, with a very moist
       low-level airmass present along/south of the warm front.
    
       ...Northern Plains...
       Modest mid-level height falls and ascent preceding an upper trough
       should overspread parts of the northern Plains by Monday evening.
       Diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass to the east of a front
       should encourage the development of moderate to strong instability
       by late Monday afternoon across parts of western SD and vicinity.
       Strong deep-layer shear of 50+ kt will easily support supercells
       with any convection that can develop and persist. Most guidance
       suggests that thunderstorms will initially develop by late Monday
       afternoon across far northeastern WY/southeastern MT, and quickly
       strengthen as they spread northeastward across western/central SD
       and ND Monday evening/night.
    
       The rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment will
       support a threat for both large hail and severe winds with
       supercells as the dominant mode initially. Some of the hail could be
       very large (2+ inches) across parts of western SD and vicinity
       Monday afternoon/evening, as steep mid-level lapse rates and
       2000-3000+ J/kg of MLCAPE will likely be present. With time, some
       upscale growth into a cluster may occur across ND Monday night as a
       cold front moves eastward. Given the large amount of buoyancy
       forecast, damaging winds and hail may continue to be a threat even
       if convection becomes slightly elevated. A few tornadoes may also
       occur with any supercell, mainly late Monday afternoon and early
       evening, across parts of western SD into ND as low-level shear
       increases.
    
       ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley...
       Thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period Monday
       morning across parts of the Midwest (IA/MN and vicinity). This
       activity could pose an isolated severe hail/wind threat as it moves
       eastward Monday morning. There may be an MCV associated with this
       morning convection, and some guidance also shows a corresponding
       mid-level vorticity maximum and enhancement to the mid-level winds.
       Although details in convective evolution remain unclear Monday
       afternoon, there is increasing concern that redevelopment of intense
       thunderstorms could occur with the MCV across parts of southern
       WI/northern IL into southern Lower MI, IN, and OH. Strong to extreme
       instability (MLCAPE 3000-5500+ J/kg) will likely develop along/south
       of a warm front across these areas. Low to mid 70s surface
       dewpoints, strong diurnal heating, and steep mid-level lapse rates
       will all contribute to this large reservoir of buoyancy. 35-45+ kt
       of deep-layer shear should also be present with the enhanced
       mid-level west-northwesterly flow on the northeastern periphery of
       the upper ridge.
    
       This volatile environment will support significant severe potential
       with any thunderstorms that can form along/south of the warm front.
       At this point, there is still a substantial amount of uncertainty
       with where/if thunderstorms redevelop by Monday afternoon. Both
       global and convection-allowing model guidance show large variability
       in possible solutions, which range from little to no surface-based
       convective redevelopment, to an intense, bowing MCS sweeping
       southeastward in a narrow corridor across parts of the Midwest into
       the OH Valley through Monday evening. Given these uncertainties,
       have opted to include greater (15%) severe wind probabilities and
       add a significant severe wind area where confidence in an MCS
       occurring is somewhat better. Isolated large hail may occur with any
       embedded supercell. A few tornadoes also appear possible, as
       low-level shear will be maximized along and just south of the warm
       front.
    
       If confidence in the MCS scenario occurring increases, then even
       greater severe probabilities would likely be needed owing to the
       very favorable thermodynamic environment. The eastern/southern
       extent of the severe threat is also uncertain, so have expanded the
       Marginal Risk across the OH Valley into the central Appalachians to
       account for a broad range of possible tracks to the MCS before it
       eventually weakens Monday night.
    
       ..Gleason.. 06/12/2022
    

    Beat me to it. That's some pretty strong wording.

    spcd2four_panel.conus.png

  7. New day 2 mentions EF3+ tornado possible.

    Quote
     Day 2 Convective Outlook  
       NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
       0101 AM CDT Sun May 01 2022
    
       Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
    
       ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
       OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS...
    
       ...SUMMARY...
       A severe threat is expected to develop on Monday over the southern
       and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks. Large hail, wind damage
       and tornadoes will be possible Monday afternoon and evening. A
       marginal severe threat will also be possible across parts of
       west-central Texas and in the western Tennessee Valley.
    
       ...Southern and Central Plains...
       An upper-level trough will move eastward across the southern and
       central High Plains on Monday, as a 45 to 60 knot mid-level jet
       translates eastward through the base of the trough. At the surface,
       a low will move southeastward into northwest Oklahoma as a cold
       front advances southeastward across western Kansas and into western
       Oklahoma. By afternoon, a dryline will setup from a frontal triple
       point in western Oklahoma extending south-southwestward into
       northwest and west-central Texas. A warm front will advance
       northward across eastern Kansas and central Missouri. Surface
       dewpoints across the moist sector will be in the mid 60s F, where
       moderate instability is expected by afternoon. Convection is
       forecast to initiate ahead of the cold front from south-central
       Kansas into north-central Oklahoma during the late afternoon. Rapid
       thunderstorm intensification should occur with several clusters of
       strong to severe thunderstorms moving eastward from central and
       northern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas during the early evening.
       Isolated thunderstorms are expected further south-southwest along
       the dryline into parts of northwest and west-central Texas.
    
       The environment across the southern and central Plains may become
       very favorable for severe storms, depending upon early day activity
       shifting eastward away from the region. NAM forecast soundings from
       Wichita southward to Oklahoma City at 00Z/Tuesday are impressive
       loaded gun soundings. MLCAPE is forecast to be in the 2000 to 3000
       J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear from 50 to 60 knot. This is combined
       with 700 to 500 mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km, and 0-3 km storm
       relative helicities of 450 to 500 m2/s2. This will be a high-end
       parameter space very favorable for supercells with large hail, wind
       damage and tornadoes. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in
       diameter will be possible with the more intense supercell updrafts.
       As low-level shear ramps up during the late afternoon and early
       evening, tornadoes will be possible with the more intense
       supercells. Model forecasts show a strong low-level jet response
       across northeast Oklahoma. Supercells that develop to the west and
       northwest of the low-level jet should be associated with a threat
       for strong tornadoes, and an EF3+ tornado may occur. In addition,
       wind damage will be possible with supercells, and with organized
       short bowing line segments.
    
       A severe threat should develop south-southwestward into northwest
       Texas and west-central Texas to the east of the dryline, but
       convective coverage will be more isolated there. Large hail and wind
       damage would be possible with supercells that form in the late
       afternoon and early evening.

     

  8. 49 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

    Seems to be a bit of confusion at NWS Chicago.   "Radar confirmed" tornado warning issued for the Oak Brook area and shortly thereafter cancelled.  Was there an actual touchdown?  Tag said "observed."

    It was radar confirmed which means there must have been debris showing up and it could have been brief leading to cancelation.

  9. Quote
    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
    Tornado Warning
    National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville
    449 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022
    
    The National Weather Service in Chicago has issued a
    
    * Tornado Warning for...
      East central DuPage County in northeastern Illinois...
      Central Cook County in northeastern Illinois...
    
    * Until 515 PM CDT.
    
    * At 449 PM CDT, a tornado producing storm was located over Oak
      Brook, moving northeast at 25 mph.
    
      HAZARD...Damaging tornado.
    
      SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.
    
      IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
               shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
               Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
               damage is likely.
    
    * This tornadic storm will be near...
      Westchester, Northlake and Hillside around 500 PM CDT.
      Elmhurst, Maywood, Bellwood and Broadview around 505 PM CDT.
    
    Other locations in the path of this tornadic thunderstorm include
    Melrose Park, Forest Park and River Forest.
    
    Including the following interstates...
     I-88 between mile markers 137 and 140.
     I-290 between mile markers 13 and 20.
    
    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
    
    This Tornado Warning replaces the Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued
    for the same area.

     

  10. Quote
    .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
    Deep, but unphased, troughing will be positioned near the NE coast
    of the CONUS for the start of the period with NW flow aloft over the
    OH Vly transitioning to more quasi-zonal flow through the day on
    Friday. The final day of the workweek will have the region squeezed
    between the system exiting the eastern seaboard and the next one in
    line, which will be progressing quickly from the Upper Midwest to
    south-central plains Friday into Friday night.
    
    By this time, attention will be squarely focused on the second of
    the aforementioned systems -- the one tracking almost N-S through
    the central plains on Friday. Longer-range guidance remains in
    relatively good agreement showing this midlevel S/W transitioning to
    a closed low by Saturday morning in the vicinity of KS/OK. This
    feature will be responsible for a rather impressive band of wintry
    pcpn on the NE periphery of the track, which will likely position
    itself from MN to MO during this time period, with the ILN FA & OH
    Vly staying pretty confidently to the east of any pcpn through the
    daytime on Saturday. Cannot completely rule out a few flurries,
    perhaps, near/south of the OH Rvr by later Saturday evening, but the
    guidance trend in taking this feature further west has left us with
    pretty high confidence in a dry Saturday here locally as highs
    ranging from the mid 20s to lower 30s (N-S, respectively) locally.
    
    This is a complex winter system that will likely evolve from the
    ArkLaTex region E/NE through the TN Vly and eventually into the NE
    CONUS from Saturday night through Sunday. While it seemed like
    previous data runs had all but written off any notable impacts
    locally, the latest trends, both deterministically and from an
    ensemble perspective, suggest this perhaps may not entirely be the
    case. GEFS/GEPS/EPS ensemble means have all taken considerable jumps
    further to the NW with the boomerang re-curvature of the system from
    the northern Gulf to near/west of the spine of the Appalachians
    before eventually the primary energy transfers closer to the coast,
    with the inland low becoming somewhat orphaned by later Sunday.
    
    There are several things to break down regarding potential
    accumulating wintry pcpn locally late Saturday night through Sunday.
    The first, and perhaps most important, aspect will be the timing of
    the transfer of energy from the initial inland low to the coastal
    low sometime between Saturday night and Sunday night. The prevailing
    guidance would suggest occlusion of the initial sfc low in MS/TN
    Saturday night with the development of a secondary low toward SC by
    Sunday morning. The occlusion of the low would signal a gradual loss
    of baroclinicity associated with the inland low, which guidance
    suggests may track from TN NE through the ern OH Vly during the day
    on Sunday. The occlusion of the LL system, prompting the loss of
    baroclinicity, due in part of the lack of arctic air building in
    quickly from the NW, suggests a gradual decrease in lift/LL
    convergence associated with any banded pcpn. In fact, there would
    likely be frontolysis underway with this system as it tracks closer
    to the ILN FA Sunday, leading to uncertainties in just how
    widespread and/or intense any wintry pcpn may be. There is no sharp
    temp gradient or strong frontogenetic axis to work with here,
    especially as the coastal low becomes the primary one on Sunday with
    explosive cyclogenesis occurring in the mid-Atlantic region.
    
    With all of this being said, it cannot be ignored the obvious and
    sudden shift to the NW with the inland low tracking to the NE
    near/west of the Appalachians -- a climatologically-favorable track
    for accumulating snow in the OH Vly. Although there remains some
    positional variability that will ultimately play a significant role
    in the evolution of the system and potential impacts locally, this
    trend has shown itself almost unanimously across the GEFS/GEPS/EPS
    ensemble quites. Most guidance would suggest that the column may get
    /just/ warm enough to promote a mix of rain/snow during the
    afternoon in N KY and south-central OH, with the predominant p-type
    remaining snow elsewhere with a subzero (C) profile and ample
    saturation in the DGZ coinciding/overlapping with some vertical
    motion with the mid/upper level low tracking through the region.
    Ensemble mean probabilities continue to suggest increasing potential
    for light accumulations of snowfall (1"/3") or less near/SE of the I-
    71 corridor on Sunday. These ensemble means do assume a 10:1 SLR,
    which would likely just a bit higher than we would be dealing with
    (we may be closer to 8:1 or 9:1, depending on location).
    Nevertheless, the trends with the overall closed low tracking
    further to the N/W, with implications on the track of the inland
    (filling) low, have raised PoPs above the blended guidance for
    Saturday night through Sunday and will introduce a broad-brushed HWO
    mention for now. Certainly we are still several model runs away from
    being able to hone-in on whether this system will be more of a
    nuisance, or perhaps a bit more significant, so we will continue to
    adjust the forecast as trends and patterns dictate.
    
    Another "kicker" S/W will pivot SE from the Upper Midwest to the OH
    Vly immediately behind the "main" system for Sunday night into
    Monday morning. This system may have enough additional lift to
    generate some snow showers during the day on Monday as temps remain
    several degrees below seasonal norms. Have not added slight chance
    PoPs yet for this time period as confidence remains low at this time
    in the exact track and strength of this feature. But some lake-
    effect/enhanced snow showers N of the immediate local area seem like
    a good bet at this juncture for the start of the workweek.

    From ILN

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