jbcmh81

Confirmed TOG near Tarlton.

I have relatives in Circleville... heading in that direction.

November, January and February all had normal to above normal snow, even though it immediately melted each time it snowed. The fact that it’s been super wet and “cold enough” at times has allowed for it.

So I70 is on the line between a lot of snow and mix/rain? Haven’t ever seen that before.

Hancock where?

Meanwhile, the GFS has maybe an inch in the next 10 days. The main difference is a storm showing up for the 12-14th. The GFS takes the main low into northern Michigan while the FV3 has it in north central North Carolina. Only a small difference. I guess the bright side is that both at least have some kind of storm.

Temp stuck at 0 for hours at the airport. Not good if the forecast low is to be reached.

Today's official high will be 14. I was too cold. It's a shame the afternoon temperature won't go into the records. Now let's see how cold it gets tonight.

So you're saying everyone can look forward to a whole new set of ways things can go wrong. Exciting times ahead

The afternoon zones were actually warmed up a bit, so I'm really pretty close on the lows. The high on Wednesday is based off the midnight high, which again, is the only thing that's going into the records. Sure the afternoon may be a little colder than that, but without any snow cover, it's hard to imagine that things will end up colder than any of these numbers, even with the very low 850s.

So here's what I think the actual temperatures will be the next few days for Columbus... tonight with the wind and zero snow cover, temps won't fall much below 0 at all. In fact, I could see them staying above 0. So I'm saying -1 to +4, tomorrow's high around +6 to +10, tomorrow night maybe 0 to -4 at worst. Wind chills will be bad, but on par with similar events in previous outbreaks of recent years. So yes, I'm generally going a little warmer than forecast. Oh, and probably no significant squalls with the arctic front. Maybe continued flurries off and on.

Winter weather advisory for maybe an inch or less tomorrow night. lol. Going big this season.

This. The wind chills will be nasty for a time, but those don't go into the record books. No one remembers how low wind chills were in 1994. They remember the actual temperature was between -20 and -35 across the state. This reminds me a lot of early February 1996. That was a historic arctic outbreak for the upper Lakes, but barely penetrated south of 80. Highs in the high single digits, lows around 0 to a few degrees below zero in Columbus with some lower wind chills. Cold but nothing to write home about. The front also came through bone dry with just some flurries, and there was no snow on the ground at all. So yeah, looking like a good match. At least that winter had plenty of snow action.

Eh, even the arctic intrusion looks pretty standard as well. Chicago and points along and north of 80 look great for potential record cold, but again, anywhere along and south of 70 looks like similar cold those areas see at least once every couple winters. It's been significantly muted from what it once looked like. Single-digits below zero is certainly cold, but it happened last winter, and 2015 and 2014 and 2011 and 2010 and 2009 and 2008... Other areas are having a completely different winter. This is all really pessimistic, but after Sunday night's 1-3" forecast turned into half an inch of flurries, only the latest disappointment, it really started to become apparent that this was not going to turn out great in the end. Everyone who either lives or has ever lived in Ohio should know that only rarely do winters make a complete 180 from terrible starts and underwhelming patterns once they've been established for 2 months. The last one in Ohio was probably 2006-2007, and even in that winter, the one big storm was a mostly heartbreaking miss to the north, and that was in one of the coldest Februaries on record, something this pattern is never producing.

I didn't cancel anything. I just don't think mediocrity is something you can tell someone they should feel grateful for. Frankly, I have nothing to gain or lose here either way, but I've seen this movie enough times growing up in Ohio to have a good idea on how it ends. I guess we'll see soon enough, but I'm out of the discussion until or unless something of any actual interest occurs. Someone else can talk about the dustings, dry cold the next few days or 50s and rain for February.

December was 31 days of mild and snowless. The first week of January was mild and snowless. February looks mild and snowless the first week-10 days at least. At this point, that's not a fluke, that IS the pattern for winter 2018-19. I don't think you can shine this turd and call it a diamond by throwing out a couple low-end advisory snows. And no one is demanding your sympathy. It's stating the obvious. People were saying "there's a lot of winter left" in January 1998 and 2002, or December 2011. Having a lot of winter left has no bearing on whether it turns out any better than what's already happened. You should know this. This is not a good winter for virtually anyone outside of a very few places. Without some historic end, it's going to be forgettable at best. If you disagree, that's fine. What's your call then? I'm going to go out on a limb and say that, barring some singular luck and hitting a big storm, the I-70 corridor at least will end up below normal snowfall in a warmer than normal winter.

The extended looks terrible for anything winter-related. I doubt anyone cares things are near average with most of it coming in 0.2" increments between dry and cold or warm and wet periods. The pitifully few storms have vastly underperformed. Also, it's hilarious how many midnight highs there've been. Even a lot of the cold will go into the record books as being pretty tame because of that. January will end up barely below normal in Columbus.

Temps dropping too slow aloft, it seems.

So... what's on the horizon?

Pretty much whiteout in Columbus.

Fascinating would probably not be the word most use to describe it. But come on, whatever happens now, this will certainly be remembered for years to come as one of the most singularly frustrating to predict.

Are you like... drinking? I wouldn't blame you.

I like that the ice reports are already pretty close to Columbus. BTW, I didn't mean 5 earlier, I meant 6. So maybe before then, but hopefully certainly well before 9.

Good to see the snow line moving south now. Bradford and Greenville are both roughly west of Franklin County, so the snow line is not that far north, especially looking at the thicknesses. I would think it should arrive in the Columbus area before 5.

I also had to laugh at some of the models for next week... warm and mix/rain during storms followed by very cold and dry... over and over.